Slugger Pedro Alvarez Signs w Orioles (1 yr: 5.75 + 1.5 potential bonuses) OFFICIAL

[Herman]

How do you know these things? You are very pessimistic.

Easy, I've watched them play lol. I am very pessimistic and I have every reason to be when you consider how badly the front office has botched the window of opportunity.

I meant no offense to you. I just disagree with you is all.

No worries. No offense taken.

When it comes to offense, I only care about one thing: are they good at scoring runs, or not? I really don't care about how they score them, or how often they strike out.

I think this team will score 20-50 runs more than last year's team did, which will put them well above average. If I'm right about that, the rest of the offensive stats are just footnotes.

I agree in theory but the problem with that is that the total amount of runs scored is misleading. Think about how many times last year the offense would be stagnant and score like 20 runs in 10 games and then the following game score 12. Things like that misrepresent the real potency of the offense. The starting pitching, unfortunately, is not good enough to carry the team while the beer league softball lineup struggles

[OFFNY]

Sorry to disappoint you but I have better things to do than spend a lot of time on an Orioles message board in the offseason. Or in the regular season for that matter

Why do you spend ANY time on an Orioles message board?

You show nothing but disdain for the team.

The current team has been constructed like a beer league softball team. For the first time in 14 years the team built a solid nucleus of players that they could win with and they did just about everything wrong to not take advantage of it. As a fan that's disappointing.

That does not answer the question.

You have ALWAYS shown nothing but disdain for the team. The Orioles were a .500 team last year, and you were always pouncing on them when they lost, and you were almost always conspicuously absent when they won.

Why do you bother posting here at all when it is clear that your sole agenda is to undermine the team at every possible chance that you can?

[accinfo]

The current team has been constructed like a beer league softball team. For the first time in 14 years the team built a solid nucleus of players that they could win with and they did just about everything wrong to not take advantage of it. As a fan that's disappointing.

What makes it like a beer league softball team? Defensively they are above average at every position except LF and RF. Yes Machado would be a better run producer lower in the order but he is pretty good lead off hitter. At 22 I expect his OPB to get better then the stellar 359 he had a year ago. He has decent speed. This lineup will play good to great defense and score plenty of runs to win. It will come down to how good the starting pitching is. People can no longer say that Peter Angelos won't spend money because he doesn't care about winning. Now lets change the narrative to they don't know how to spend their money. Gallardo needs to produce close to what Chen did a year ago and Tillman needs to be much closer the his average the three years prior to last year. Two things I don't think are unreasonable to expect. Gausman is the real wild card. If he becomes close to a TOR guy this team is a 90 plus win team positioned to win a division or earn a wild card spot.

[Frobby]

I agree in theory but the problem with that is that the total amount of runs scored is misleading. Think about how many times last year the offense would be stagnant and score like 20 runs in 10 games and then the following game score 12. Things like that misrepresent the real potency of the offense. The starting pitching, unfortunately, is not good enough to carry the team while the beer league softball lineup struggles

I took a pretty careful look at this last year and concluded that the Orioles' offense was not more boom and bust than other teams. The one thing we did do last year was bunch our low-scoring games together. In other words, we didn't have more 0-2 run games than a typical team (we had 52; league average was 52.4), but we had a couple of dry spells where we had a ton of those (e.g. 14 of the 52 came in 29 May games).The flip side is that we also had long stretches where we had almost none of those. I don't think it's particularly better or worse if your poor-hitting games come in streaks rather than being more evenly distributed. It's just more frustrating for the fans when the team is in a streak like that. And, I don't think there is anything about a high HR/strikeout team that would make it more prone to extended slumps than a low HR/strikeout team. It just happened to work out that way in 2015. We were the same type of offense in 2012-14 and did not really experience the same kind of dry streaks.

[Can_of_corn]

What makes it like a beer league softball team? Defensively they are above average at every position except LF and RF. Yes Machado would be a better run producer lower in the order but he is pretty good lead off hitter. At 22 I expect his OPB to get better then the stellar 359 he had a year ago. He has decent speed. This lineup will play good to great defense and score plenty of runs to win. It will come down to how good the starting pitching is. People can no longer say that Peter Angelos won't spend money because he doesn't care about winning. Now lets change the narrative to they don't know how to spend their money. Gallardo needs to produce close to what Chen did a year ago and Tillman needs to be much closer the his average the three years prior to last year. Two things I don't think are unreasonable to expect. Gausman is the real wild card. If he becomes close to a TOR guy this team is a 90 plus win team positioned to win a division or earn a wild card spot.

Davis isn't really above average at first, few guys are.

We really don't know what we are going to get from Schoop, Hardy and Wieters this year on defense. All three were dealing with injuries that impacted their defense last season. Even Machado's glove work suffered last season.

[Babypowder]

Davis isn't really above average at first, few guys are.

We really don't know what we are going to get from Schoop, Hardy and Wieters this year on defense. All three were dealing with injuries that impacted their defense last season. Even Machado's glove work suffered last season.

I'd also argue that Jones is averageish.

[Can_of_corn]

I'd also argue that Jones is averageish.

You're a harsh man.

I was willing to give them Jones.

[Fan4Life]

I took a pretty careful look at this last year and concluded that the Orioles' offense was not more boom and bust than other teams. The one thing we did do last year was bunch our low-scoring games together. In other words, we didn't have more 0-2 run games than a typical team, but we had a couple of dry spells where we had a ton of those. The flip side is that we also had long stretches where we had almost none of those. I don't think it's particularly better or worse if your poor-hitting games come in streaks rather than being more evenly distributed. It's just more frustrating for the fans when the team is in a streak like that. And, I don't think there is anything about a high HR/strikeout team that would make it more prone to extended slumps than a low HR/strikeout team. It just happened to work out that way in 2015. We were the same type of offense in 2012-14 and did not really experience the same kind of dry streaks.

For me, it matters what teams / pitchers we face and when. This is obviously random but it matters. There are some pitchers we notoriously struggle against and others we do unusually well against. When and how often you face them is a variable as well as the teams we play and how often they see our bottom end of the rotation versus the top end. If we see Toronto facing our bottom end of the rotation an unusually amount of times, that may have a completely different outcome than if they faced the top end. Top end doesn't appear to be good diction, but top half and bottom half in a 5 man rotation didn't seem to make sense either.

[Herman]

Why do you spend ANY time on an Orioles message board?

You show nothing but disdain for the team.

How do you know these things? You are very pessimistic.

I meant no offense to you. I just disagree with you is all.

What makes it like a beer league softball team? Defensively they are above average at every position except LF and RF. Yes Machado would be a better run producer lower in the order but he is pretty good lead off hitter. At 22 I expect his OPB to get better then the stellar 359 he had a year ago. He has decent speed. This lineup will play good to great defense and score plenty of runs to win. It will come down to how good the starting pitching is. People can no longer say that Peter Angelos won't spend money because he doesn't care about winning. Now lets change the narrative to they don't know how to spend their money. Gallardo needs to produce close to what Chen did a year ago and Tillman needs to be much closer the his average the three years prior to last year. Two things I don't think are unreasonable to expect. Gausman is the real wild card. If he becomes close to a TOR guy this team is a 90 plus win team positioned to win a division or earn a wild card spot.

The lineup lol. Think about it - almost no speed and dependent on the home run. Because of the front offices' inability to find someone capable of batting 1st, Machado is stuck doing it which is not ideal. Bryce Harper doesn't bat 1st for the Nationals. Stanton doesn't bat 1st for the Marlins. Griffey didn't bat 1st for the Mariners and Reds etc etc.

I took a pretty careful look at this last year and concluded that the Orioles' offense was not more boom and bust than other teams. The one thing we did do last year was bunch our low-scoring games together. In other words, we didn't have more 0-2 run games than a typical team, but we had a couple of dry spells where we had a ton of those. The flip side is that we also had long stretches where we had almost none of those. I don't think it's particularly better or worse if your poor-hitting games come in streaks rather than being more evenly distributed. It's just more frustrating for the fans when the team is in a streak like that. And, I don't think there is anything about a high HR/strikeout team that would make it more prone to extended slumps than a low HR/strikeout team. It just happened to work out that way in 2015. We were the same type of offense in 2012-14 and did not really experience the same kind of dry streaks.

I agree to a point. Last year was absolutely brutal to watch for long stretches at a time. 2014 was different because the starting pitching was collectively good, especially in the 2nd half of the season. Unfortunately when they got to the playoffs and played the Royals the offense went completely cold. The problem with them being so dependent on the home run and having poor team speed is that it often takes at least 3 hits to score. Think about how many times the Orioles had 10+ hits and or 15 baserunners in a game but still struggled to score. In my opinion, one of the #1 goals in the offseason should have been to figure out a way to balance the lineup out more with a little more to give it more versatility. I wasn't completely against them resigning Chris Davis if they figured out a way to balance out the lineup. Instead they did the opposite and added to the problem by bringing in Trumbo and Alvarez. In my opinion, having a lineup where Jones, Davis, Trumbo and Alvarez hit consecutively is going to fail. Ideally, Machado should be batting after Davis to give Davis more protection and to break up all of the high strikeout guys. Again, this is just my opinion

[DrungoHazewood]

I took a pretty careful look at this last year and concluded that the Orioles' offense was not more boom and bust than other teams.

And there's your problem. Once you start carefully looking at all the available evidence in a systematic way you might be forced to reevaluate the conclusions you made a long time ago and that's just waffling and going back on your convictions. Being factually wrong is better than being a flip-flopper.

I need to go back to ignoring politics.

[Herman]

I'd also argue that Jones is averageish.

I think Jones is solid in center field. He has good instincts and covers ground well.

[DrungoHazewood]

Davis isn't really above average at first, few guys are.

We really don't know what we are going to get from Schoop, Hardy and Wieters this year on defense. All three were dealing with injuries that impacted their defense last season. Even Machado's glove work suffered last season.

Dewan recently posted on James' site that the O's infield defense was projected to be the best in baseball. Royals best in the outfield.

[weams]

I think this would be a very interesting subject to study -- and I have no doubt that major league teams have studied it. It's perfectly feasible that certain elements of value are over- or underpriced, either chronically or on a faddish basis. And a smart team will take advantage. That's Moneyball in its true sense.

I spent a few minutes seeing if I could design a good test, and concluded it would take a lot more than a few minutes.

I think so also. It would require a great deal of work to prove or disprove. I think that one dimensional power hitters in FA are paid less than those whose WAR comes from more esoteric standards. Simply because it is in vogue. Or En Vogue.

If you prefer.

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[Can_of_corn]

Dewan recently posted on James' site that the O's infield defense was projected to be the best in baseball. Royals best in the outfield.

It might very well be.

Wieters, Hardy and Schoop all have some question marks after last year's injuries. None of the three were at their established level.

[Herman]

And there's your problem. Once you start carefully looking at all the available evidence in a systematic way you might be forced to reevaluate the conclusions you made a long time ago and that's just waffling and going back on your convictions. Being factually wrong is better than being a flip-flopper.

I need to go back to ignoring politics.

Last year they lost 13 of 15 games and in all 13 games they scored less than 3 runs. That's just one example off the top of my head. If you think that the way the offense is constructed is acceptable than that will be more proof that you don't actually watch the games and instead keep up with the box scores and fangraphs.

There's a reason why Alvarez was available in March, was Kim was available for $7 million and why no other teams were bidding on Chris Davis. There's also a reason why Pedro Alvarez was not in the starting lineup in the Wildcard game last year.