Analyzing Mike Wright

[bluedog]

If you are like me, you were pretty excited last season when Mike Wright threw 14 shutout innings in his first two starts as a major league pitcher.

But then he proceeded to give up 30 runs over his next 28.3 innings as the wheels came off for him.

At that point I sort of wrote off Wright as a replacement level starter, who'd just over performed in his first couple of games. I mean, in 2014 over a full season at Norfolk, he'd gone 5 - 11 with a pedestrian 4.62 ERA, 1.405 WHIP and 6.5 K/9.

Nothing to see here.....move along.

So I was sort of surprised during spring training this year when Buck gave him the most opportunities (he led or tied for the lead on the O's in games started and innings pitched this spring) to win a starting spot. Tyler Wilson and to a lesser extent Vance Worley both outpitched Wright this spring, but Buck apparently made up his mind early on that Wright was the next guy up for the O's.

It sure seemed like Buck and DD saw something in Wright that I was missing. So I went back to his minor league stats and took another look.

I posted in another thread what I found - Wright has been a sort of "Jekyll & Hyde" pitcher during his career thus far. The first time he gets an extended look at a particular level of competition, he struggles. But once he repeats that level, he pitches much better.

Here are Wrights aggregate stats at A / AA / AAA split by first time he faces a level and when he repeats that level of competition. I took some liberties and assumed for this purpose that Rk / A- / A and A+ were all similar to each other:

1st time, Age Dif -2.9, W-L 13 - 16, ERA 4.91, GS 46, IP 249.4, H 280, ER 136, HR 23, BB 68, K 190,

2nd time, Age Dif -1.8, W-L 25 - 06, ERA 2.90, GS 48, IP 270.3, H 258, ER 87, HR 16, BB 69, K 234,

1st time: BF 1084, WHIP 1.40, H9 10.1, HR9 0.8, BB9 2.5, K9 6.9, K/W 2.79

2nd time: BF 1126, WHIP 1.21, H9 8.6, HR9 0.5, BB9 2.3, K9 7.8, K/W 3.39

The sample sizes are almost identical - similar numbers of starts, IP and batters faced. There are slight improvements in BB/9 and K/9 the 2nd time around but these aren't significant enough by themselves to explain the difference in performance.

The real difference makers seems to be the reductions in H9 & HR9 that translates into him giving up over 2 runs less per nine innings.

But is Wright really doing something different that affects the number of hits and home runs he's giving up or is it just coincidental that he improves these metrics the 2nd time around?

I found this excellent article "Can pitchers prevent hits on balls in play" on Diamond-Mind.com.

The author uses a metric called NetIPAvg (net in play average) to clearly illustrate that most above average pitchers have a measurable ability to reduce the number of hits they give up on balls in play. It's a fascinating exploration of how different styles of pitchers (Power Pitchers, Control Freaks, Crafty Lefties, Knucklballers, etc.) can be successful by far exceeding league average in various metrics including K rate, BB rate, NetIPAvg and HR rate.

The part of the article to me that is relevant to my analysis of Mike Wright is the section on "Year to year variations, Part 1". It shows that pitchers - in this case Greg Maddux (control freak), Jamie Moyer (crafty lefty) and Randy Johnson (power pitcher), each started off their major league career by being below average in preventing hits on balls in play, but were able to consistently out perform the league average for NetIPAvg for long periods later in their career.

Apparently, after a sufficient period (usually a year or two) of time getting acclimated to the majors, each of these pitchers were able to learn something that helped them to consistently do a better job of preventing hits on balls in play.

I'm not suggesting that Mike Wright is the next Maddux, Moyer or Johnson. In fact, Wright is neither a control freak, a crafty lefty or a power pitcher. But I am intrigued with the possibility that Mike Wright might be one of those guys that has whatever "it" is that lets great pitchers learn how to minimize hits on balls in play.

His minor league career shows some indication that this might be the case. Let's hope his second go round in the Majors follows a similar pattern!

[Rene88]

I really think Wright is a bullpen guy. Not sure what the Orioles see that we don't.

I get his stuff is better but....Wilson gets people out.

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[Camden_yardbird]

6'6", 96 mph heater. He's always a pitcher who I feel should be better than he is. However he really struggles to throw his breaking pitch over for a strike, and he has a so-so change that is telegraphed by a huge change in arm speed.

I would love to see him sacrifice some speed for movement. Players like Ortiz, who can hit any fastball, feast off his straighter than straight fastball and stay off of the off speed stuff. I wouldn't give up on him as a starter. I think if you have done this at this point in his career you are expecting results to quickly. Not every player is Mike Trout or David Price, some of them are Roy Halladay or maybe even Justin Turner who can give you some great production if you have some patience.

[Frobby]

I'll cut him some slack on a cold night in Boston after a long layoff, but his breaking stuff was just not credible tonight. Better luck next time.

[LookitsPuck]

I'll cut him some slack on a cold night in Boston after a long layoff, but his breaking stuff was just not credible tonight. Better luck next time.

And he threw a number of fat meatballs to Ortiz and Ramirez.

[clapdiddy]

I think it's definitely worth giving him another look. He looked a little too high-strung tonight. Maybe those first game jitters will be behind him and he'll show a little more command of the breaking stuff.

[Rene88]

6'6", 96 mph heater. He's always a pitcher who I feel should be better than he is. However he really struggles to throw his breaking pitch over for a strike, and he has a so-so change that is telegraphed by a huge change in arm speed.

I would love to see him sacrifice some speed for movement. Players like Ortiz, who can hit any fastball, feast off his straighter than straight fastball and stay off of the off speed stuff. I wouldn't give up on him as a starter. I think if you have done this at this point in his career you are expecting results to quickly. Not every player is Mike Trout or David Price, some of them are Roy Halladay or maybe even Justin Turner who can give you some great production if you have some patience.

Nice write up sir, thanks for taking the time to post this.

[Bmorefan24]

Give me Tyler Wilson in the rotation over Wright. Wright just seems more like a Bullpen guy. Tommy Hunter-ish

[weams]

I'm going to disagree. He actually had a nice slider working for most of the night until the last inning or so when he kept on trying to over throw it. His slider was his number two pitch instead of the changeup for most of the game. He threw some nice ones and commanded it pretty well, again, until the last inning or so. Not sure why Wieters kept calling it after he buried two in a row. I was impressed with this stuff. He varied the fastball but touched 97-98. He had the slider and changeup working at times.

As someone else said, he seems a little too high strung. Easy to say, but he needs to relax and settle down. He has the stuff to be a #3-#4 starter. The command comes and goes but I think a lot of it is just getting experience.

Rick Dempsey agrees with you. He caught some good ones.

[backwardsk]

Looking forward to seeing him make his start against the Rangers on regular rest and hopefully not so windy.

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[JayThomas]

I'm going to disagree. He actually had a nice slider working for most of the night until the last inning or so when he kept on trying to over throw it. His slider was his number two pitch instead of the changeup for most of the game. He threw some nice ones and commanded it pretty well, again, until the last inning or so. Not sure why Wieters kept calling it after he buried two in a row. I was impressed with this stuff. He varied the fastball but touched 97-98. He had the slider and changeup working at times.

As someone else said, he seems a little too high strung. Easy to say, but he needs to relax and settle down. He has the stuff to be a #3-#4 starter. The command comes and goes but I think a lot of it is just getting experience.

If that was a slider that was bouncing 5 feet in front of the plate then it needs a LOT of work. It wasn't just missing. It was bouncing so far in front of the plate that it was bouncing up and over Wieters' shoulder.

For that matter, what the h#W@ was Wieters thinking, not going out there going from 2 outs 0 on to 2 outs bases loaded while bouncing balls all over the place. Wright spent 2 innings bouncing pitches around ... lots of work to do here.

[Il BuonO]

I'm going to disagree. He actually had a nice slider working for most of the night until the last inning or so when he kept on trying to over throw it. His slider was his number two pitch instead of the changeup for most of the game. He threw some nice ones and commanded it pretty well, again, until the last inning or so. Not sure why Wieters kept calling it after he buried two in a row. I was impressed with this stuff. He varied the fastball but touched 97-98. He had the slider and changeup working at times.

As someone else said, he seems a little too high strung. Easy to say, but he needs to relax and settle down. He has the stuff to be a #3-#4 starter. The command comes and goes but I think a lot of it is just getting experience.

I'll agree with the caveat that his CH is below average and it's difficult to be a starter with only two average or better pitches. It may have worked at times, but more than once he got away with that pitch being up.

[JayThomas]

He lost the feel for the slider or started over throwing it. Whatever. That doesnt' change the fact that he threw a lot of good ones in the first 3-4 innings and also commanded it.

Do you realize how much you have to be over-squeezing it or something else to throw a slider 5 feet in front of the plate? I could see letting a curve get away from you like that, but a slider?

[JayThomas]

What is your point? Yes, he was trying to over rotate the slider, IMO. He held onto it too long and buried them in front of the plate. Sometimes young players try too hard. That's what I think it is. Maybe his slider is more of a slurve. It has a fair amount of break.

Maybe ... dunno. (But) if you're going to attribute this to the travails of a young pitcher finding his way (and I'm not arguing that), then Matt or somebody has to come out before the end of the 2nd consecutive inning of bounced pitches and settle him down. That was a total 2-inning meltdown there, and I don't think Mike, Matt, or Buck handled it well. It could easily have gotten away from us there.

[Rene88]

I wish I knew half as much about pitch selection and pitching repitiores as fans in this thread. Thanks for discussing, very helpful.

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