Comeback wins: sign of promise, or sign of trouble?

[Frobby]

As MASN trumpets every chance they get, the O's have 19 come-from-behind wins this year, tops in the league. I think this raises a question -- is that a good sign, or a bad one?

Good sign: it shows this team is resilient and doesn't give up when it falls behind.

Bad sign: it shows they are falling behind a lot, and the ability to come back may not be sustainable over 162 games.

Here are some past numbers for context:

- In 2012, the O's had 43 comeback wins and blew leads 29 times.

- In 2013, the O's had 43 comeback wins and blew leads 46 times.

- In 2014, the O's had 41 comeback wins and blew leads 25 times.

- In 2015, the O's had 34 comeback wins and blew leads 35 times.

This year, the O's are on a pace to have 55 comeback wins and blow a lead only 23 times.

Remember, for this purpose a "comeback win" means any game we won after trailing at any time in the game. If we were down 1-0 after half an inning and won, that counts as a comeback win. Same thing with blown leads, it includes any game we lost after leading at any point, even in the first inning. The fact that we lost 10 more games where we blew leads in 2015 vs. 2014 probably has little to do with the bullpen, it's what the starters did in the first 5-6 innings that made the difference.

Overall, while I have really enjoyed all the comeback wins, especially over the last week, I don't think we are likely to keep having comeback wins at the current pace. We need more wins where we never fall behind at any point during the game. And those games come from having good starting pitching performances. We need more of them -- but of course, we all knew that.

[Snutchy]

I think it's encouraging overall, because they're winning. It shows that even if they can't keep it up all the time, they're resilient and wont give up. As long as they keep playing with heart, they'll find a way to get them over. Have faith Frobs.

Just jeep winning.

Edit:

Also, that number will always be kind of inflated by Tillman and his first inning struggles.

[Aristotelian]

I am not going to complain. The way I see it, it shows that we are never dead even when we are behind. It makes sense, our starting pitching is weak, but the bullpen is elite and the offense can score runs. Our starting pitching has nowhere to go but up. Maybe Gallardo is decent, maybe we get some addition by subtraction once Ubaldo is dealt with. If we actually get some decent stretch maybe we win a few more.

That said, the Houston series shows that we can be vulnerable to a team that has a good bullpen to match ours, and maybe our starting pitching is what it is.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think it means much either way in the regular season. If this team gets to the post season that is a different story.

[Oriolesfan4life]

I think it has to be a little bit of both.

You have to love the the resilience that this team has showed. I never feel like we are every totally out of a game because we play until the final out. I think a lot of that stems from Buck.

But it will be tough to keep doing this late in games when you are facing the best relievers in the game.

[srock]

The starting pitching is built on value, so I expect more runs to be allowed versus the starters then the bullpen. Hence the falling behind early.

The offense feasts when opposing pitchers tire and/or weak bullpen arms come into the game. Slightly more runs scored late then early makes sense.

I wonder... (no time to dig into the data)

the team likes to be 'aggressive'. This can be detrimental versus starters because it can keep their pitch count down. However, pitch count doesn't mean much for relievers. Being aggressive against the bullpen might be beneficial.

[Machado13]

When you have the Os starting pitching, the need for a lot of comebacks will be in store.

SP really needs to improve through better performances, trades, call ups, etc

[Frobby]

Two major reasons we have "comeback wins" with regularity this season. Our starting pitching is usually lousy(it wasnt last night), and our hitters usually dont jump on pitchers early and usally dont get untracked offensively till after the fifth inning.Those are two ominous signs for a team.One more thing.When we DO score early we are also a team that looks like it goes to sleep and cant put a game away.

But we've only lost 8 games where we had a lead at any point. That's a very low number, and I think it belies the bolded point.

By the way, here is our average runs scored/allowed by inning (per 9 innings)

1st - 4.34/5.30

2nd - 3.05/4.50

3rd - 4.34/4.02

4th - 4.18/4.02

5th - 4.82/4.98

6th - 5.14/7.07

7th - 8.68/4.02

8th - 4.34/3.21

9th - 4.42/1.80

We're dominating from the 7th inning on. Going into the 7th, we've had the lead in 21 games, been behind in 24, and been tied in 11. We've won 10 of the 11 games that were tied; come from behind to win 5 times; and only lost a game we were leading 3 times.

Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/inning_summary.cgi?year=2016&team_id=BAL

[Three Run Homer]

- In 2012, the O's had 43 comeback wins and blew leads 29 times.

- In 2013, the O's had 43 comeback wins and blew leads 46 times.

- In 2014, the O's had 41 comeback wins and blew leads 25 times.

- In 2015, the O's had 34 comeback wins and blew leads 35 times.

This year, the O's are on a pace to have 55 comeback wins and blow a lead only 23 times.

At least in this small sample, having more comeback wins than blown losses is correlated with overall team success. So by that token, I'm encouraged that we've had more comeback wins than blown losses this season.

The jump in blown leads in 2013 was in part due to Jim Johnson's struggles.

The drop in comeback wins last season and the surge this season is directly attributable to the O's hitting performance in late and close situations. The O's were 29th in OPS in late close situations last season despite having a decent offense overall, while they are 3rd in late/close OPS so far this season. I don't believe that clutch hitting is a repeatable skill above and beyond general hitting ability, but year-to-year variations in clutch hitting performance are surely an important factor in year-to-year fluctuations in team victories.

[Spy Fox]

But we've only lost 8 games where we had a lead at any point. That's a very low number, and I think it belies the bolded point.

By the way, here is our average runs scored/allowed by inning (per 9 innings)

1st - 4.34/5.30

2nd - 3.05/4.50

3rd - 4.34/4.02

4th - 4.18/4.02

5th - 4.82/4.98

6th - 5.14/7.07

7th - 8.68/4.02

8th - 4.34/3.21

9th - 4.42/1.80

We're dominating from the 7th inning on. Going into the 7th, we've had the lead in 21 games, been behind in 24, and been tied in 11. We've won 10 of the 11 games that were tied; come from behind to win 5 times; and only lost a game we were leading 3 times.

Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/inning_summary.cgi?year=2016&team_id=BAL

This made me curious about how our offense was doing against relievers as compared to starters. I looked it up expecting to find that we had been feasting on relievers, but it turns out we have a .799 OPS against starters and a .730 OPS against relievers. Makes me think that a lot of that 7th inning run outburst in your data comes from opposing managers leaving their starter in a few batters too long.

[Frobby]

This made me curious about how our offense was doing against relievers as compared to starters. I looked it up expecting to find that we had been feasting on relievers, but it turns out we have a .799 OPS against starters and a .730 OPS against relievers. Makes me think that a lot of that 7th inning run outburst in your data comes from opposing managers leaving their starter in a few batters too long.

Hard to say -- you see a lot of mediocre relievers in the 6th/7th innings sometimes. But the 8th/9th inning guys are very tough, if you are facing the guys the other team puts in when they have the lead.

[O's84]

Two major reasons we have "comeback wins" with regularity this season. Our starting pitching is usually lousy(it wasnt last night), and our hitters usually dont jump on pitchers early and usally dont get untracked offensively till after the fifth inning.Those are two ominous signs for a team.One more thing.When we DO score early we are also a team that looks like it goes to sleep and cant put a game away.

I would also add that our bullpen is so good that they can halt things and give us a better chance of coming back.

[Tx Oriole]

As MASN trumpets every chance they get, the O's have 19 come-from-behind wins this year, tops in the league. I think this raises a question -- is that a good sign, or a bad one?

Good sign: it shows this team is resilient and doesn't give up when it falls behind.

Bad sign: it shows they are falling behind a lot, and the ability to come back may not be sustainable over 162 games.

Here are some past numbers for context:

- In 2012, the O's had 43 comeback wins and blew leads 29 times.

- In 2013, the O's had 43 comeback wins and blew leads 46 times.

- In 2014, the O's had 41 comeback wins and blew leads 25 times.

- In 2015, the O's had 34 comeback wins and blew leads 35 times.

This year, the O's are on a pace to have 55 comeback wins and blow a lead only 23 times.

Remember, for this purpose a "comeback win" means any game we won after trailing at any time in the game. If we were down 1-0 after half an inning and won, that counts as a comeback win. Same thing with blown leads, it includes any game we lost after leading at any point, even in the first inning. The fact that we lost 10 more games where we blew leads in 2015 vs. 2014 probably has little to do with the bullpen, it's what the starters did in the first 5-6 innings that made the difference.

Overall, while I have really enjoyed all the comeback wins, especially over the last week, I don't think we are likely to keep having comeback wins at the current pace. We need more wins where we never fall behind at any point during the game. And those games come from having good starting pitching performances. We need more of them -- but of course, we all knew that.

That's a good question. I am glad they have comeback to win. But I don't think it

can continue.

[waroriole]

Makes sense. We have a huge discrepancy between the quality of our SP and bullpen.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think it means much either way in the regular season. If this team gets to the post season that is a different story.

I don't think it means much of anything.

Do you believe it is a good or bad thing in the playoffs? I tend to think of the playoffs as (regular season) + (more depth) + (quick hooks) + (a crapton of randomness).