If YOU were Tampa Bay...

[allstar1579]

So, sorry to rehash these things but something occurred to me tonight while thinking about Posey. We are comparing Wieters to Posey and vice-versa, but I think we might be comparing apples and oranges. One simple reason that I had to borrow from BCS arguments, strength of schedule.

What would you assume if you saw GT's team batting average was .293 last year, versus Florida State hitting .359 this year? That much difference in team batting average across the board just screams that they are facing weak pitching.

Don't think that I am saying Posey isn't a great prospect, because he is, I just didn't think before while comparing 2 ACC talents that there may be a difference in the quality of pitchers they faced.

[markpolis]

So, sorry to rehash these things but something occurred to me tonight while thinking about Posey. We are comparing Wieters to Posey and vice-versa, but I think we might be comparing apples and oranges. One simple reason that I had to borrow from BCS arguments, strength of schedule.

What would you assume if you saw GT's team batting average was .293 last year, versus Florida State hitting .359 this year? That much difference in team batting average across the board just screams that they are facing weak pitching.

Don't think that I am saying Posey isn't a great prospect, because he is, I just didn't think before while comparing 2 ACC talents that there may be a difference in the quality of pitchers they faced.

Good point. Also, others have noted Florida State's home field is very favorable to hitters.

[Stotle]

So, sorry to rehash these things but something occurred to me tonight while thinking about Posey. We are comparing Wieters to Posey and vice-versa, but I think we might be comparing apples and oranges. One simple reason that I had to borrow from BCS arguments, strength of schedule.

What would you assume if you saw GT's team batting average was .293 last year, versus Florida State hitting .359 this year? That much difference in team batting average across the board just screams that they are facing weak pitching.

Don't think that I am saying Posey isn't a great prospect, because he is, I just didn't think before while comparing 2 ACC talents that there may be a difference in the quality of pitchers they faced.

Two things: 1) FSU has a hitters park (last year's team batted .350); and

2) this is a really good FSU offense (the team already has almost 30 more HRs than last year's team and has played 10 fewer games.

Good observations, though. Posey's field should be taken into consideration when comparing his stats.

[allstar1579]

Thanks guys, that was the other thing I was thinking. I expected to see a slight difference in BA, but when the entire team was hitting 60 points higher it set off some red flags. That team is either the college murderer's row, or they are hitting against pitching machines.

It all started from a random thought, I wonder what guys Wieters hit off of in college are doing this year, and if he faced any real studs. You don't see too many great ACC pitchers now a days. Benson is the last I can think of and look at how that turned out. The SEC however seems to churn them out, so I was wondering from a scouting perspective, how different conferences sway bias towards prospects like the NFL. You know, you see a Cal QB and know he is a product of the system.

[PlumOriole]

I wrote this in another thread. The Rays have so much talent in the minors they are in a postion to draft for need more than most teams and they have a majore need for talent at C.

[allstar1579]

I wrote this in another thread. The Rays have so much talent in the minors they are in a postion to draft for need more than most teams and they have a majore need for talent at C.

Yeah, most of us here are with you there, we said that back in the very beginning of this argument (it has floated through a few threads now), we all just really like debating the top 7 or so guys, it's pretty fun when the 10 or so of us really go head to head.

[Stotle]

Thanks guys, that was the other thing I was thinking. I expected to see a slight difference in BA, but when the entire team was hitting 60 points higher it set off some red flags. That team is either the college murderer's row, or they are hitting against pitching machines.

It all started from a random thought, I wonder what guys Wieters hit off of in college are doing this year, and if he faced any real studs. You don't see too many great ACC pitchers now a days. Benson is the last I can think of and look at how that turned out. The SEC however seems to churn them out, so I was wondering from a scouting perspective, how different conferences sway bias towards prospects like the NFL. You know, you see a Cal QB and know he is a product of the system.

Well, Andrew Miller and Josh Bard were both pretty incredible talents at UNC two years ago. Jacob Thompson is a prime talent this year (top two rounds, most likely). Moskos, out of Clemson, went #4 overall last year. Those are off the top of my head right now. Sorry I can't do better -- tired.

Yuck -- I melded Jacob Thompson into Jacobson again!

[Stotle]

I wrote this in another thread. The Rays have so much talent in the minors they are in a postion to draft for need more than most teams and they have a majore need for talent at C.

Update on the TAM draft situation:

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/article499028.ece

"The Rays have scouted [Alvarez, T-Bex, Posey, Matusz and Skipworth] extensively and met with each for in-depth conversations, with character as important as talent. As they get closer, they'll discuss contract parameters to explore a predraft agreement to get their pick playing quickly. (They will also at least keep talking about two others: Missouri RHP Aaron Crow and Fresno State RHP Tanner Scheppers.)

With the abundance of accumulated young talent, there could be a temptation to draft to fill a need at or close to the big-league level (leading to the considerable speculation about Posey).

But Friedman and scouting director R.J. Harrison say that would be exactly the wrong way to approach things. "That's how you get in trouble," Harrison said. "Taking a guy because he can help you real quick is the wrong reason to take a player." (Similarly, they say they won't not take a player because his position is currently filled.)

In theory, they'll take the cliched "best player available." In reality, what they're hoping to do, Harrison said, is take the player "who has an impact on the major-league club sooner than later, and for a long time."

[McNulty]

Thanks guys, that was the other thing I was thinking. I expected to see a slight difference in BA, but when the entire team was hitting 60 points higher it set off some red flags. That team is either the college murderer's row, or they are hitting against pitching machines.

It all started from a random thought, I wonder what guys Wieters hit off of in college are doing this year, and if he faced any real studs. You don't see too many great ACC pitchers now a days. Benson is the last I can think of and look at how that turned out. The SEC however seems to churn them out, so I was wondering from a scouting perspective, how different conferences sway bias towards prospects like the NFL. You know, you see a Cal QB and know he is a product of the system.

Um, you don't see great ACC pitchers? Are you high?

Just off the top of my head, I can come up with Andrew Miller, Daniel Bard, Andrew Brackman, Daniel Moskos who were all first rounders the past two years. Plus we took a kid from Clemson pretty high also (Kopp, just can't remember what round). And that's not counting all the quality arms that Miami and FSU both have had recently. Chris Perez is the next closer for the Cards and they nabbed him from Miami. Need I go on?

The ACC is always one of, if not the, top conference in the nation, and to suggest that Wieters and Posey are facing some different level of competition is nonsense. GT faces Georgia every year, and FSU faces UF. They play very similiar non-conference schedules.

Look, Wieters had Wally Crancer, Danny Payne and Luke Murton last year around him for protection. The rest of his lineup was absolute crap, whereas FSU's team this year is probably only second in the country to Arizona State; and that's debatable. Dick Howser stadium is a good hitters park, but having seen a lot of games there I can't imagine it to be that much of an influence.

Here are GT's stadium's dimensions:

Left Field: either 328 or 329 feet (~100m), depending on whether you believe the official media guide or the foul line post.

Left Center: 391 feet (119 m)

Center Field: 400 feet (122 m)

Right Center: 353 feet (108 m)

Right Field: 334 feet (102 m)

Here's FSU:

Left Field - 340 ft

Center Field - 400 ft

Right Field - 320 ft

Right Field Fence - 30 ft

That looks pretty even to me. And certainly the climate isn't all that different from Atlanta to Tallahassee.

Edit: I forgot UVAs Sean Doolittle, who was absolutely lights out in the 4 times I saw him pitch. I'm not sure if Oakland is using him as a hitter or a pitcher, because he topped out at 91 or so, but that kid could not be touched at all when I saw him. I'm sure I'll think of more. I also said here and in another thread that Wes Hodges was on their team. He left in 2003, and I confuse him and Luke Murton all the time. My apologies.

[allstar1579]

Well, Andrew Miller and Josh Bard were both pretty incredible talents at UNC two years ago. Jacobson is a prime talent this year (top two rounds, most likely). Moskos, out of Clemson, went #4 overall last year. Those are off the top of my head right now. Sorry I can't do better -- tired.

No that's ok, I knew there had to be a couple. I knew Miller, just wasn't thinking, but Moskos I didn't know was a Clemson guy too. I just compare that sample to say...any rotation from Rice between 03-05, or Vandy, or LSU and I start thinking that these just have, not a stigma, but you know the opposite, where it's a good reputation for a certain type of prospect.

Kind of like, when you hear someone is a great pitcher coming out of the PCL, you take notice because it is such a hitter's league, when you hear a certain prospect from a school renowned for that position, you tend to question it less.

[allstar1579]

Um, you don't see great ACC pitchers? Are you high?

Just off the top of my head, I can come up with Andrew Miller, Daniel Bard, Andrew Brackman, Daniel Moskos who were all first rounders the past two years. Plus we took a kid from Clemson pretty high also (Kopp, just can't remember what round). And that's not counting all the quality arms that Miami and FSU both have had recently. Chris Perez is the next closer for the Cards and they nabbed him from Miami. Need I go on?

The ACC is always one of, if not the, top conference in the nation, and to suggest that Wieters and Posey are facing some different level of competition is nonsense. GT faces Georgia every year, and FSU faces UF. They play very similiar non-conference schedules.

Look, Wieters had Wally Crancer, Danny Payne and Wes Hodges last year around him for protection. The rest of his lineup was absolute crap, whereas FSU's team this year is probably only second in the country to Arizona State; and that's debatable. Dick Howser stadium is a good hitters park, but having seen a lot of games there I can't imagine it to be that much of an influence.

Here are GT's stadium's dimensions:

Left Field: either 328 or 329 feet (~100m), depending on whether you believe the official media guide or the foul line post.

Left Center: 391 feet (119 m)

Center Field: 400 feet (122 m)

Right Center: 353 feet (108 m)

Right Field: 334 feet (102 m)

Here's FSU:

Left Field - 340 ft

Center Field - 400 ft

Right Field - 320 ft

Right Field Fence - 30 ft

That looks pretty even to me. And certainly the climate isn't all that different from Atlanta to Tallahassee.

Edit: I forgot UVAs Sean Doolittle, who was absolutely lights out in the 4 times I saw him pitch. I'm not sure if Oakland is using him as a hitter or a pitcher, because he topped out at 91 or so, but that kid could not be touched at all when I saw him. I'm sure I'll think of more.

Those guys are all still recent and the jury is still out though, yeah they are highly touted, but we still need to see what they turn into. Moskos was drafted on potential, he only made 10 starts 81 games. That is just how the draft works sometimes. Miller has been great at every level below AAA, but he still needs to develop some more and should be in the minors right now. Brackman is another potential guy, he had one good year in college, and good stuff, and an injury apparently.

All I am saying is you have to really analyze the entire schedule, you can say that their non-conf. schedules are comparable, but until you lineup the totals for both teams non-conference opponents you really don't know. That was the whole point of what I said though, to see 2 ACC teams, who in theory should be playing a lot of the same teams, and have that big of a difference in team batting average says that either GT faced a lot tougher pitching last year than FState is this year, or FS should have 5 1st rounders in their lineup right now because they are hitting out of their mind.

[McNulty]

Those guys are all still recent and the jury is still out though, yeah they are highly touted, but we still need to see what they turn into. Moskos was drafted on potential, he only made 10 starts 81 games. That is just how the draft works sometimes. Miller has been great at every level below AAA, but he still needs to develop some more and should be in the minors right now. Brackman is another potential guy, he had one good year in college, and good stuff, and an injury apparently.

All I am saying is you have to really analyze the entire schedule, you can say that their non-conf. schedules are comparable, but until you lineup the totals for both teams non-conference opponents you really don't know. That was the whole point of what I said though, to see 2 ACC teams, who in theory should be playing a lot of the same teams, and have that big of a difference in team batting average says that either GT faced a lot tougher pitching last year than FState is this year, or FS should have 5 1st rounders in their lineup right now because they are hitting out of their mind.

What those guys (the pitchers) are doing in the pros isn't relavent to this discussion. They were dominant in college, when they were facing these two, and warranted enough talent and great results to yield being picked that high. There are also other guys who were effective in college that have either been picked further down because of "ceiling" issues or injury risks. The bigger point is that they face TOP LEVEL pitching being in the ACC every year. And I'm telling you their non-conference schedules aren't that different. This year, FSU has faced UF 3 times, Georgia twice, Stetson 4 times, Jacksonville three times, and all those teams were tourney teams last year (the last two are having down years, but both are solid programs). Auburn, Duquesne and Savannah State are in there, but they are doormats this year.

Georgia Tech, last year in non conference, faced a very weak schedule IMO. Duquesne (3), Georgia (3), Georgia Southern (3), Kennesaw State (3), Ill-Chicago (3), Western Carolina (for one game) Wofford (ditto) and Rutgers (3).

As far as FSU's team goes, they have a freshman in Tyler Holt leading off, who has been a total surprise, a Tennessee transfer in Tony Delmonico who can hit but is shaky in the field, Dennis Guinn who is a senior that is just now becoming a good hitter, Jack Rye (who is probably the only other pro prospect in the lineup) who is a lefty with good power, Jason Stidham hits second and was a total surprise last year when he hit well, and some other random platoon guys.

[allstar1579]

What those guys (the pitchers) are doing in the pros isn't relavent to this discussion. They were dominant in college, when they were facing these two, and warranted enough talent and great results to yield being picked that high. There are also other guys who were effective in college that have either been picked further down because of "ceiling" issues or injury risks. The bigger point is that they face TOP LEVEL pitching being in the ACC every year. And I'm telling you their non-conference schedules aren't that different. This year, FSU has faced UF 3 times, Georgia twice, Stetson 4 times, Jacksonville three times, and all those teams were tourney teams last year (the last two are having down years, but both are solid programs). Auburn, Duquesne and Savannah State are in there, but they are doormats this year.

Georgia Tech, last year in non conference, faced a very weak schedule IMO. Duquesne (3), Georgia (3), Georgia Southern (3), Kennesaw State (3), Ill-Chicago (3), Western Carolina (for one game) Wofford (ditto) and Rutgers (3).

As far as FSU's team goes, they have a freshman in Tyler Holt leading off, who has been a total surprise, a Tennessee transfer in Tony Delmonico who can hit but is shaky in the field, Dennis Guinn who is a senior that is just now becoming a good hitter, Jack Rye (who is probably the only other pro prospect in the lineup) who is a lefty with good power, Jason Stidham hits second and was a total surprise last year when he hit well, and some other random platoon guys.

Ok, well take NC out of the equation this year and the ACC is a hitters haven.

2008 ACC

There are only 3 teams with an ERA below 3.5 in the conference with most of them in the high-4-5 range. So I would say the ACC is a hitter's conference. That is FAR from TOP-LEVEL pitching. And even then, of those guys how many times did Posey or Wieters actually face them??

[McNulty]

Ok, well take NC out of the equation this year and the ACC is a hitters haven.

2008 ACC

There are only 3 teams with an ERA below 3.5 in the conference with most of them in the high-4-5 range. So I would say the ACC is a hitter's conference. That is FAR from TOP-LEVEL pitching. And even then, of those guys how many times did Posey or Wieters actually face them??

OK, clearly you don't understand the college game. The SEC this year has NO TEAMS below your 3.5 ERA "standard". Its college, so of course there are going to be some teams that don't have enough depth to consistently keep team ERAs down. More importantly, they use aluminum bats and play with much worse defenses. The ERAs are always going to be higher in college.

Here is a link to the SEC's current pitching stats.

http://www.jleecamp.com/tygr/secbb.htm

And the Big West (which has 2 teams below 4)

http://www.bigwest.org/admin/stats/data/baseball/lgteams.htm

And the Pac 10 (which has ZERO teams below 3.5)

http://www.pac-10.org/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/lgteams.html

Or the Big 12 (which has ZERO under 4, and Missouri boasts 3 first round talents in their rotation and has an ERA over 5)

http://www.big12sports.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/lgconf.html

Compare ANY of those with the ACC's, and I think you'll see what I'm getting at. Obviously from year to year there are variations in the particular strength of college conferences (especially with no restrictions on transferring), but I'm telling you the ACC is always up there every single year.

Just look at this year. They have 3 of the best 4 teams in the country. Only the Pac-10 and the Big West can even be in the discussion this year with the ACC, and that would be on a depth argument.

Edit: And to answer your question about how often they face them, they get the best three pitchers during each weekend series. The teams usually play non-conference during the week, and conference games on the weekend (outside of the first few weeks before the conference schedule starts). Friday night starters are the best (your Crow and Matusz and so on), Saturday second best, and Sunday third best. Relievers typically fill in the gaps as need be outside of the really top closers (Josh Fields being one, or Carginan last year for UNC). So in non-conference mid week games, you get their 4th or 5th starter. You always face the top pitchers from each team in conference play. Hence why this discussion is being made when comparing Posey's 2008 season to Wieters 2006 (his best) season.

[Stotle]

OK, clearly you don't understand the college game. The SEC this year has NO TEAMS below your 3.5 ERA "standard". Its college, so of course there are going to be some teams that don't have enough depth to consistently keep team ERAs down. More importantly, they use aluminum bats and play with much worse defenses. The ERAs are always going to be higher in college.

Here is a link to the SEC's current pitching stats.

http://www.jleecamp.com/tygr/secbb.htm

And the Big West (which has 2 teams below 4)

http://www.bigwest.org/admin/stats/data/baseball/lgteams.htm

And the Pac 10 (which has ZERO teams below 3.5)

http://www.pac-10.org/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/lgteams.html

Or the Big 12 (which has ZERO under 4, and Missouri boasts 3 first round talents in their rotation and has an ERA over 5)

http://www.big12sports.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/lgconf.html

Compare that with the ACC's, and I think you'll see what I'm getting at. Obviously from year to year there are variations in the particular strength of college conferences (especially with no restrictions on transferring), but I'm telling you the ACC is always up there every single year.

Just look at this year. They have 3 of the best 4 teams in the country. Only the Pac-10 and the Big West can even be in the discussion this year with the ACC, and that would be on a depth argument.

Another point is the difference between a Friday/Saturday starter and the arms that go on Sundays or during the week. All it takes is one 15 run game to spike a team ERA. If you look at the top pitchers in the college games, their stats are generally better than MLers. There's just a wider range of players at the college level -- from future ML star to walk-on at a Big Ten school.