If YOU were Tampa Bay...

[McNulty]

Another point is the difference between a Friday/Saturday starter and the arms that go on Sundays or during the week. All it takes is one 15 run game to spike a team ERA. If you look at the top pitchers in the college games, their stats are generally better than MLers. There's just a wider range of players at the college level -- from future ML star to walk-on at a Big Ten school.

Yea, I just edited that explanation into my original post. You said it better than I did though.

[allstar1579]

OK, clearly you don't understand the college game. The SEC this year has NO TEAMS below your 3.5 ERA "standard". Its college, so of course there are going to be some teams that don't have enough depth to consistently keep team ERAs down. More importantly, they use aluminum bats and play with much worse defenses. The ERAs are always going to be higher in college.

Here is a link to the SEC's current pitching stats.

http://www.jleecamp.com/tygr/secbb.htm

And the Big West (which has 2 teams below 4)

http://www.bigwest.org/admin/stats/data/baseball/lgteams.htm

And the Pac 10 (which has ZERO teams below 3.5)

http://www.pac-10.org/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/lgteams.html

Or the Big 12 (which has ZERO under 4, and Missouri boasts 3 first round talents in their rotation and has an ERA over 5)

http://www.big12sports.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/lgconf.html

Compare ANY of those with the ACC's, and I think you'll see what I'm getting at. Obviously from year to year there are variations in the particular strength of college conferences (especially with no restrictions on transferring), but I'm telling you the ACC is always up there every single year.

Just look at this year. They have 3 of the best 4 teams in the country. Only the Pac-10 and the Big West can even be in the discussion this year with the ACC, and that would be on a depth argument.

I understand the college game quite well thanks, but you just exemplified my point. The pitching is not going to be as great as you were saying stave for a few star pitchers. Even the top ACC arms that you talked about only one of them was a full time successful starter. Guys like Posey and Wieters are going to have a lot more of those junk arms to hit than stud pitchers to face. You were making it sound like there are 3 sub-3.0 era starters for every team, but how many times are these guys actually facing those elite starters? How much are they actually being challenged versus feeding on those 11-2 games?

[McNulty]

I understand the college game quite well thanks, but you just exemplified my point. The pitching is not going to be as great as you were saying stave for a few star pitchers. Even the top ACC arms that you talked about only one of them was a full time successful starter. Guys like Posey and Wieters are going to have a lot more of those junk arms to hit than stud pitchers to face. You were making it sound like there are 3 sub-3.0 era starters for every team, but how many times are these guys actually facing those elite starters? How much are they actually being challenged versus feeding on those 11-2 games?

What point are you making exactly? And in what universe did I just prove your point?

Guys like Posey and Wieters are going to have a lot more of those good quality pitchers then junk arms then if they were in other conferences. The junk arms only pitch in blow outs and mid week games.

Here's my point(s).

1. The ACC has some of, if not the, best college level pitching in the country year in and year out.

2. Posey is having a better season than Wieters ever did this year against the exact same level of competition in a very similar hitting environment and supporting cast.

3. In conference play, they face the best that the opposing teams have to offer.

[allstar1579]

What point are you making exactly? And in what universe did I just prove your point?

Guys like Posey and Wieters are going to have a lot more of those good quality pitchers then junk arms then if they were in other conferences. The junk arms only pitch in blow outs and mid week games.

Here's my point(s).

1. The ACC has some of, if not the, best college level pitching in the country year in and year out.

2. Posey is having a better season than Wieters ever did this year against the exact same level of competition in a very similar hitting environment and supporting cast.

3. In conference play, they face the best that the opposing teams have to offer.

http://www.boydsworld.com/data/leaderboard.html

In this list of all of the top arms in the country, how many ACC pitchers do you see on there? Not including the ones for FL. State because they don't hit against their own team.

Posey is having a great year, are you trying to say because he is having a statistically better year that he will be a better player?

If they are facing the best the opponents have to offer, then where do we see that in this list?

http://seminoles.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/teamstat.html

I see the 2 and 3 starter for NC and Posey didn't do much against them, nor did he against VA when they were shut down by a couple VA pitchers. Aside from that, I don't see any decent pitching they have faced all year.

I am just saying that Posey is having a wonderful year and all, but you can't just say because he has better stats this year, he is better than Wieters.

[McNulty]

http://www.boydsworld.com/data/leaderboard.html

In this list of all of the top arms in the country, how many ACC pitchers do you see on there? Not including the ones for FL. State because they don't hit against their own team.

Posey is having a great year, are you trying to say because he is having a statistically better year that he will be a better player?

If they are facing the best the opponents have to offer, then where do we see that in this list?

http://seminoles.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2007-2008/teamstat.html

I see the 2 and 3 starter for NC and Posey didn't do much against them, nor did he against VA when they were shut down by a couple VA pitchers. Aside from that, I don't see any decent pitching they have faced all year.

I am just saying that Posey is having a wonderful year and all, but you can't just say because he has better stats this year, he is better than Wieters.

Um, OK I won't. And I didn't. You said that the ACC doesn't have good pitching. I'm telling you they do. You're missing the bigger point that the conference itself does have good pitching. Statistically speaking, its the best in the country this year. The fact that it might lack as many top end pitchers as another conference just points to all the parity and quality depth in the conference pitching wise.

By your rationale, if you look at the top 10 ERA guys, clearly the guys on that list are better than top prospects like Matusz, Crow, Hunt, etc. And are you really drawing conclusions based upon him facing a pitcher once? You have to take the whole body of work here. He's leading the entire nation in SLG, OPS, AVG, and OBP! Are you kidding me here?

And to top it all off, he's not doing it against Purdue, or Colorado, or the Big East. He's doing it against the AC-freakin-C! Look at the guys atop the HR or RBI list. They are almost to a man lower division competition. Doesn't that tell you something? Those are the guys feasting on the "junk" guys you are clamoring about.

I'm also telling you that Posey is having a better year this year than anything Wieters put up in his 3 years in college. I do not think he will be a better player than Wieters, but its certainly a possibility.

Lastly, I'm going to go ahead and say that Posey has been a better collegiate player than Wieters, but Wieters will be the better pro.

[McNulty]

Here is a good summary of the pitching in the ACC from BP's Bryan Smith:

The hard thing about playing in the ACC this season is that it means three series against three of the four hardest schools in the nation. Against Miami, North Carolina, and Florida State, Virginia is 1-8. Against the conference's bottom-feeders—VT, BC, Maryland—the Cavaliers are 9-0. Beyond that, they have an embarrassing weekend loss to Duke, an understandable loss to NC State, and a much-needed weekend win against Wake Forest. Virginia has yet to win a series they were supposed to lose, and they've once (Duke) lost a series they were supposed to win.

It would be hyperbole to call Virginia on the bubble for the post-season tournament. For the most part, they're in, because one way or the other the ACC is going to get rewarded; Boyd Nation has them ranked 26th in the RPI. Virginia still needs a series win this weekend as Georgia Tech comes into town with two consecutive big weekends under their belt, but the Cavaliers are 30-7 at home this season, negotiating the deep fences at Davenport Field better than anybody else. As usual, the result has been an offense not founded on power (.114 ISO), but on walks and stolen bases. Virginia is a rather astounding 120-for-149 on the bases this spring, and five players have at least 10 stolen bases.

The real strength of this team is, as we would have guessed four months ago, the pitching staff. The Cavaliers have a 3.49 team ERA, and that's despite a rough year for ace Jake Thompson, who stands at 4.21 thanks to some problems with walks and extra-base hits. Thompson was once bookmarked for the first round, but he's slid as much as anyone this spring. In his place, the stars for this Virginia team have been Thompson's supporting cast—Pat McAnaney could be the ACC's best Saturday starter, sporting a 85-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 75 innings, while closer Michael Schwimer has allowed just two earned runs in 22 innings, and hitters have a composite line of just .160/.222/.160 off of him. Throw in three fantastic relievers in Matt Packer (1.13 ERA in 47 2/3 IP), Neal Davis (1.16 ERA in 38 2/3 IP) and prized recruit Jake Cowan (3.56 ERA in 30 1/3 IP), and Virginia is going to give the Yellow Jackets some fits.

That's just part of the beauty of the ACC in this final weekend, as the highlight is not just the fifth and sixth teams battling for postseason seeding. Outside of Virginia's matchup with Georgia Tech, the third and fourth teams are battling as well, as Florida State travels to Raleigh to play NC State, while headlining the weekend is North Carolina's trip to Miami in a confrontation between the conference's top two teams. Despite the rankings, the Florida State/NC State series has more intrigue to me that the class of titans, but that's because the post-season implications are substantial—the Seminoles are no lock to land a national top-eight seed. You have to figure Miami and North Carolina are locks, and the committee will all-but-definitely give spots to Rice, Arizona State, Georgia, and Texas A&M. This puts the Seminoles in a fight with Nebraska, Cal State Fullerton, Stanford, and San Diego for the remaining two spots. If Florida State falters at NC State and then again at the ACC Tournament, it would be within the realm of possibility for the Huskers and Titans to swoop in. For NC State, the weekend offers the potential of hosting a regional, because the Pack stands at 12th in the RPI, and would presumably enter the top ten with a weekend win over the number three team.

Like the clash between Virginia and Georgia Tech, the series between NC State and Florida State features a tough home pitching staff going up against an imposing group of road bats. The Wolfpack have a 3.32 team ERA this season, and like Virginia, it's despite some bad starts from their scouts' favorite, lefty Eric Surkamp (4.81 ERA). NC State can shorten any game to seven innings with set-up man Jake Buchanan (2.18 ERA in 41 1/3 IP) and closer Jimmy Gillheeney (1.20 ERA in 30 IP) as two of the team in the business. The true star this season, though, has been junior Clayton Shunick, who has a low-90s sinker that's led to a 82-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 2.48 ERA. If he can beat Matt Fairel on Friday, NC State has a chance.

Finally, we come to the highly-acclaimed series between North Carolina and Miami, a series which holds some promise of a rematch in Omaha. Yet again, we find a fantastic pitching staff, this time North Carolina's, looking to cool off a good lineup. The difference is that UNC's pitching staff isn't just fantastic, they're historically great: the Tar Heels' team ERA is 2.28 this season. The team has allowed just 119 walks, 385 hits, and 15 home runs in 470 innings. Alex White is as good as anybody on Fridays, Matt Harvey is better than anybody on Sundays, and the bullpen has a five-headed monster that's unbeatable. Oddly enough, the pitcher with the highest ERA is Saturday starter Adam Warren's 4.50 mark.

The Hurricanes are no slouches themselves on the mound. Freshman Chris Hernandez would argue with White's standing as to who's best on Friday nights, as few can match his 9-0 record or 80-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. On Sunday, Harvey will have veteran Eric Erickson to worry about, and he's been very good since returning from injury. Miami also has the nation's best reliever in sidearmer Kyle Bellamy, who has allowed just 18 hits and four walks in 42 1/3 innings. They also have a team OPS of 983, 84 points better than North Carolina's, and they also have home-field advantage.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7524