If This Is It-2017 Offseason

[FlipTheBird]

If the O's were to re-sign him it would be on the basis of what he has done this year.

- Had a pretty good first half and made the All-Star team.

- The O's pitcher trust him to call a good game. He is well thought on for this skill in the clubhouse.

- He is 4th in MLB in caught stealing percentage (37%)

- He ranks 7th in RBI for catcher in the MLB

- he ranks 12th in homers for catcher in the MLB

He has had a bad offensive month since the All-Star break. Let's see how he finishes the season.

The big question is how would letting him go upgrade the team? Who would you replace him?

Matt's posting a .686 OPS right now, and if he finishes anywhere near that realm it'll be the worst OPS of his career. I don't care at all that he made the All-Star team, that amounts to literally nothing.

To me, it's essentially addition by subtraction. He's got a .2 WAR. You can replace that at a quarter of the cost of giving him 10 million a year. Invest the money elsewhere, and platoon a one-year guy with Joseph until you feel Sisco is ready.

[Aristotelian]

You do it now so you can readjust. If you get to July 2018 and are in the race, you can't trade him and you let him walk for a pick (if they even still give comp picks in 2018). That's a failure of epic proportions given the deals closers are netting.

But if it is July 2018 and we are in the race, we shouldn't be rebuilding. We should try to win the WS, and that would mean keeping Zach for 2018, long term be damned.

[Aristotelian]

Fair enough, but even if the Orioles make the playoffs, does that really change anything? I don't think so. If anything, it just gives the FO more of a reason to think the organization is good enough now top to bottom to

win a championship when it's obviously not. It may be the worst possible outcome to the season. The Orioles have the trade value to build a new team and farm system that it would otherwise take another decade to

achieve in a single offseason. How do you not take that? The longer the wait, the more value those players lose (perhaps a great deal more if not all in the case of an injury) and the longer it will take to rebuild the

organization when everyone is gone. Making the post season wouldn't change anything about the situation in Baltimore except make it look like a rebuild isn't necessary when it clearly is.

Imagine if we win the World Series. Now that would be a terrible outcome!

[FlipTheBird]

But if it is July 2018 and we are in the race, we shouldn't be rebuilding. We should try to win the WS, and that would mean keeping Zach for 2018, long term be damned.

I would concur that a winning team can't trade it's closer mid-season.

When Zach is traded (which I believe is an inevitability, given what he'd cost to keep and the O's increasingly crowded budget), it should be during an offseason. Gives the O's a much more reasonable amount of time to sort out its bullpen.

[wildcard]

Matt's posting a .686 OPS right now, and if he finishes anywhere near that realm it'll be the worst OPS of his career. I don't care at all that he made the All-Star team, that amounts to literally nothing.

To me, it's essentially addition by subtraction. He's got a .2 WAR. You can replace that at a quarter of the cost of giving him 10 million a year. Invest the money elsewhere, and platoon a one-year guy with Joseph until you feel Sisco is ready.

I see the logic but I don't believe that WAR is the end all and be all of evaluation. Especially for catchers. There is more to the game than that IMO.

[wildcard]

I just see our chances of making the playoffs diminishing each of Manny's remaining years and I don't see PAS shelling out to extend him. Might as well get as much as we can for him.

Did you see the O's with a 150m payroll before it happen this year? I didn't.

[wildcard]

Not by itself. We wont have Trumbo, Alvarez, or Wieters. No guarantee they'll be replaced with upgrades. I'd wait and see with Bundy as well he's looked shaky his last two outings.

I have seen enough of Bundy to know he is an upgrade to the rotation. An if he can stay healthy and pitch 20% of the games that is a big upgrade.

[wildcard]

It's a pretty big assumption that he can even shoulder a full year's worth of starts. We haven't seen him capable of shouldering two months worth of regular starter load.

I agree with that. Health is the issue with Bundy. But if he is healthy all year he would be a big upgrade to what the O's have had this year.

[LookitsPuck]

Matt Wieters is 11th worst out of 100+ catchers in the majors in RAA. He doesn't block pitches well. His defensive ability is all in his arm...something that I think is replaceable. And he hasn't hit all that well.

Considering all of the above, why would you want to resign him? I'm not convinced he calls a good game, either. A lot of boneheaded sequences and he's far too fastball happy.

[crawjo]

Not by itself. We wont have Trumbo, Alvarez, or Wieters. No guarantee they'll be replaced with upgrades. I'd wait and see with Bundy as well he's looked shaky his last two outings.

All three of those players are overrated. Trumbo is a 1.1 WAR player this year so far, a number that is not far-fetched to me given that he really only does one thing well (hit home runs) while being a poor defender and mediocre offensively beyond the home run. What this year is showing you about Trumbo is that he has to be near the league leaders in home runs to really have any value. Someone will overpay for that but it shouldn't be us.

The same is true with Alvarez. He's good at hitting home runs but otherwise is terrible at pretty much every aspect of the game.

Meanwhile, Wieters is a mediocre defender with an okay bat, but nothing special. I get that he has his strong points but I don't think it makes up for his bad pitch framing and offensive mediocrity.

If you look at the 2016 Orioles, by WAR their top 12 players are all under contract for next season. That's Machado, Hardy, Schoop, Davis (so the entire infield) plus Adam Jones, plus 3/5ths of our starting rotation plus our top four relievers.

If I were in the driver's seat I would bring up Sisco to replace Wieters, look for a strong defender in right field, move Kim closer to being a full-time player, hope for a healthier season from O'Day and for growth from Gausman and Bundy. Between all that and the potential for continued improvement from Machado and Schoop, as well as a bounce-back year from Davis, this team could easily contend next year. I would consider trading Britton but only if it brought back an Andrew Miller-level haul.

[El Gordo]

Did you see the O's with a 150m payroll before it happen this year? I didn't.

I think bumping the payroll 30 M, is nothing like offering a player 10/300M+

[El Gordo]

I have seen enough of Bundy to know he is an upgrade to the rotation. An if he can stay healthy and pitch 20% of the games that is a big upgrade.

I haven't. I have to see him pitch consistently for a good number more starts. Often a young pitcher has initial success before the league gets a read on him He looks impressive but I'm not ready to take him to the bank.

[El Gordo]

All three of those players are overrated. Trumbo is a 1.1 WAR player this year so far, a number that is not far-fetched to me given that he really only does one thing well (hit home runs) while being a poor defender and mediocre offensively beyond the home run. What this year is showing you about Trumbo is that he has to be near the league leaders in home runs to really have any value. Someone will overpay for that but it shouldn't be us.

The same is true with Alvarez. He's good at hitting home runs but otherwise is terrible at pretty much every aspect of the game.

Meanwhile, Wieters is a mediocre defender with an okay bat, but nothing special. I get that he has his strong points but I don't think it makes up for his bad pitch framing and offensive mediocrity.

If you look at the 2016 Orioles, by WAR their top 12 players are all under contract for next season. That's Machado, Hardy, Schoop, Davis (so the entire infield) plus Adam Jones, plus 3/5ths of our starting rotation plus our top four relievers.

If I were in the driver's seat I would bring up Sisco to replace Wieters, look for a strong defender in right field, move Kim closer to being a full-time player, hope for a healthier season from O'Day and for growth from Gausman and Bundy. Between all that and the potential for continued improvement from Machado and Schoop, as well as a bounce-back year from Davis, this team could easily contend next year. I would consider trading Britton but only if it brought back an Andrew Miller-level haul.

Sisco isn't ready to catch at the ML level. Who are you upgrading with at C, DH, and RF ?

[wildcard]

I think bumping the payroll 30 M, is nothing like offering a player 10/300M+

There is only one contract that has hit 300m and it was for 13 years. It averaged 25m per year. Though Manny will get a lot I don't think he averages 30m per year for 10 years.

[Frobby]

All three of those players are overrated. Trumbo is a 1.1 WAR player this year so far, a number that is not far-fetched to me given that he really only does one thing well (hit home runs) while being a poor defender and mediocre offensively beyond the home run.

I hate Trumbo's defense but I have a hard time seeing him as a 1.1 WAR player. I've been very happy with his season. He's on pace for 46 HR and 117 RBI. I'll take that any day.