Bedard's History Does Not Make Him Untouchable

[Lt Melmo]

I'm not sure about this, but I'm pretty sure that's sarcasm

Hey, no smilies = open season. This thread just infuriates me a bit.

[forest leech]

Hey, no smilies = open season. This thread just infuriates me a bit.

I find that smilies take away the bite of good sarcasm. But I think its funny that I can post something absurd like that and people actually think that I mean it. Says a lot about the kind of fans that start these arguments around here, I guess the absurd has become common-place.

[Leitch]

Hey, no smilies = open season. This thread just infuriates me a bit.

Yeah I hear you

[Lt Melmo]

I find that smilies take away the bite of good sarcasm. But I think its funny that I can post something absurd like that and people actually think that I mean it. Says a lot about the kind of fans that start these arguments around here, I guess the absurd has become common-place.

I actually considered the possibility of section18 making an alias just so someone would have his back.

[Sports Guy]

Thanks, but I prefer not to save it as a favorite. If it isn't available on the individual player page, I'm not interested.

Besides, I prefer xFIP to DIPS. More accurate, in my opinion.

He keeps track of xFIP? I know fangraph has FIP.

[Sports Guy]

THT carries xFIP and FIP. You can look them up by team, by league, by MLB, or on each individual player page.

Fangraphs carries FIP. You can look it up on each individual player page.

Gracias....

[section18]

The first few that responded to my last reply at 5:11 P.M. don't know when to quit....you know who you are. I am not even going to name you because your comments are full of statements never said by me. If you are going to misquote people and make ridiculous assumptions you should not bother to answer on OH. I have better things to do than repeatedly respond to your false comments. Condescending? You are full of it....Some of..not all...of the experts which you admit you are one of are the only ones on OH that are condescending. I don't talk down to anyone on OH. Three times this year I have received apologies from posters on here who shot down my comments. Why? I asked them to take a look at their comments to see where I am coming from. They admitted they used the wrong words in their criticism of my opinion.

So we want to let Bedard walk for draft picks? Brilliant.....just@#$#@#$ brilliant. You should be our GM. Let Tejada walk when his contract is up too...while you are at it. I don't know how many times I have to say it for some on here.....I like Bedard.....we are almost good buddies.....it seems like every one of my season tickets has been matched up for me to see Bedard. I don't want Bedard to be another B.J. Ryan a player we could have traded that walked. I have followed Bedard closely. Do you think I pulled his stats out of the sky. I have seen him in person pitching and on TV. Is there something else I'm suppposed to do. I don't get to see his workouts....sorry about that.

If your sole purpose on OH is to rile people and make false statements you have a problem. There are some outstanding posters on OH that always carefully do their homework before creating and responding to posts and there are a few who pull comments out of the sky. Either you get other peoples comments mixed up on other posts or you choose to seek out people you think are lame that will sit back and let you have your way. The people who are credible on OH don't get mixed up in these petty discussions. I would have appreciated a little more support from those that know your comments are inaccurate but I guess they do not want to get on your bad list. I have also noticed you rarely start your own posts but you find time to criticize people you don't agree with. I believe we still have rights in this country to share our opinions and speak out.

[section18]

Correction...comments soon after my 6:11 reply not 5:11 P.M. reply.

[Lt Melmo]

So... is he a good pitcher now?

[section18]

Since you went back to June 13th to retrieve this post I have to respond. Closure! He finally got a complete game and it was brilliant. It took 102 starts to get a CG and now we can talk about a new contract extension. Right? We cannot let him leave like BJ Ryan did for draft picks. If he won't sign we have to trade him.

[Mashed Potatoes]

The fact that he went nine innings tonight really did make a difference in your opinion of him, didn't it? Wow

Bedard must've gotten a heart transplant. The old gutless wonder we knew before never would've been capable of going nine innings (even though he's had performances with more pitches thrown than tonight).

[bgfield]

The fact that he went nine innings tonight really did make a difference in your opinion of him, didn't it? Wow

I wonder if he gets brownie points for doing it in sweltering Texas heat, too?

[JTrea81]

I still take offers on him, but will have to be blown completely away to trade him. If we can't extend him this offseason, then deal him before the 2008 season starts.

[section18]

Going nine innings did not change my opinion of him. I have never said he wasn't a top pitcher whether he pitched 6 or 7 innings. The law of averages say he was due to finish a game sooner or later. You can't keep leaving games after 6 or 7 with high pitch counts when you are supposedly an ACE pitcher. I think Hernandezcalled a great game tonight and Bedard appreciated it. When the pitcher and catcher are clicking everything seems to work out better.

Bedard should have some peace of mind after tonight. I mentioned a few days ago on another post that I thought he might be getting jealous of all of the attention Guthrie was getting. Someone else just mentioned this. Competition is good for everyone and it does sometimes make you perform better. Bedard is one of the top pitchers in the game. I was not the only one that discussed his failure to have a complete game. I have seen him pitch numerous times at Camden Yards and I always hope he is pitching when I go to the games.

[mweb]

I disagree almost completely.

FIP ERA is based on what the pitcher controls – strikeouts, walks, and to a lesser extent – home runs. xFIP ERA makes up for the “home run flaw” by making park and HR/FB rate adjustments.

Yes, runs allowed are the name of the game, but you know as well as I do that other factors mostly beyond the pitcher’s control impact the number of runs allowed. I will argue that a stat such as xFIP ERA has fewer flaws attached to it than does actual ERA.

To say that xFIP ERA is a predictive tool and not a measurement of actual performance is flat out wrong.

I’ll come right out and say it. When looking at less than three months of action, xFIP ERA is a better measure of a pitcher’s true performance than is ERA.

I'm in between your position and Frobby's here. I think xFIP has it's advantages over ERA, especially in predictive value, however it's not close to perfect in determining how good someone is now imo. I do think pitchers have some control over hr's, I refuse to act as if a 440 ft hr is the same as a 260 foot popup when evaluating what a pitcher has done. xFIP also doesn't break down balls in play by ground balls, fly balls, and line drives, which I think is a flaw because pitchers do influence that. I also believe pitchers have some control over how hard a ball is hit and in what direction a ball is hit, not much control, but some.

So when analyzing pitchers futures, I prefer stats like FIP and DIPS, when talking about now, I like to mix those stats in with ERA+(which I know is also flawed) among other stats. Basically, I think the more stats considered, the better. And when comparing two pitchers, one who has given up 28 hr's, one that has given up 14 hr's, I'm not going to take away hr's from the former and add them to the latter while evaluating who had the better season.

I'm also not going to use half a season of a great xFIP to put Bedard among the top 3 or 5 pitchers in baseball.

I would be interested in a program that showed exactly where each ball that was put in play ended up, and how quickly it got there. That would be an absurd amount of info that would need to be broken down, but it would be great if it could be to the point where we knew what balls should and should not have become outs with average defense in an average park, and how those variances from reality changed the runs allowed.

BTW, why don't I see people rate hitters in this manner as well? What I mean, is I don't see people saying this hitter had a lucky year so he doesn't deserve to be an all star or MVP, nor do people say this hitter was unlucky this year, he's really amongst the top 10 hitters in baseball. I know the big time stat people feel hitters are lucky and unlucky from season to season as well, not as much as pitchers, but still.

I don't mean for this post to come off as bashing the advanced stats, I love the advanced stats and feel they're important to use when evaluating players.

Oh, and great start by Bedard!