Direct Jump to Bigs Possible?

[bluedog]

Had a thread in the main forum discussing this and wanted to see what the people most closely following the draft thought.

Is there any possibility that the O's grab someone like Danny Espinoza or Beamer Weems in the 3rd to 5th round and attempt to jump them directly to the big leagues for their gloves?

Since these guys are already big question marks because of their offense, I'd think we'd be okay living with Mark Belanger type offense if we could get a gold glove caliber defender there.

I know all the reasons why people will think this is stupid. Does anyone think there is any merit to this idea at all?

[Stotle]

Had a thread in the main forum discussing this and wanted to see what the people most closely following the draft thought.

Is there any possibility that the O's grab someone like Danny Espinoza or Beamer Weems in the 3rd to 5th round and attempt to jump them directly to the big leagues for their gloves?

Since these guys are already big question marks because of their offense, I'd think we'd be okay living with Mark Belanger type offense if we could get a gold glove caliber defender there.

I know all the reasons why people will think this is stupid. Does anyone think there is any merit to this idea at all?

No. It's not worth rushing anyone for their glove. You're better off taking the extra couple of seasons and trying to develop a complete player. Again, you should never use the draft as a means to solve immediate problems with your ML-team.

[bluedog]

No. It's not worth rushing anyone for their glove. You're better off taking the extra couple of seasons and trying to develop a complete player. Again, you should never use the draft as a means to solve immediate problems with your ML-team.

So how do teams that jump players directly to the majors justify it? Are the players singular talents who are so obviously major league ready that the jump makes sense to everyone? Or were the prior examples of players being sent directly to the bigs all bad decisions and a few players / teams got lucky (Winfield / Olerud, etc)?

[DrungoHazewood]

It's not a good idea for any number of reasons. Look at Luis Hernandez. If the guy isn't a great glove, merely a good one, it doesn't add up. You take a guy out of college and put him straight in the majors and you have no idea what's going to happen. Well, you have some idea, but let's say he doesn't transition well to wood bats. In college he might have looked like a sort of ok hitter, but in the majors he might put up a .400 OPS. He'd have to be Plastic Man to carry that kind of bat.

Plus, you just blew a draft pick on the worst hitter in major league baseball. Even a 5th or 6th round pick has some chance of developing into a real player.

And anyway, why would you want to have a Mark Belanger as your plan A at short? In 2010?

You'd be far better off taking a Matt Wieters and putting him straight in the majors. At least then you'd probably still have a good player in a few years.

[Stotle]

So how do teams that jump players directly to the majors justify it? Are the players singular talents who are so obviously major league ready that the jump makes sense to everyone? Or were the prior examples of players being sent directly to the bigs all bad decisions and a few players / teams got lucky (Winfield / Olerud, etc)?

That list is very, very short. It's not as black-and-white as the decision was right/wrong. Regardless, the players in question were drafted because they were very good, all-around. What was proposed in this thread was drafting players that are not even 1st round talents to solve defensive issues at the ML-level, and rushing them there.

[DrungoHazewood]

So how do teams that jump players directly to the majors justify it? Are the players singular talents who are so obviously major league ready that the jump makes sense to everyone? Or were the prior examples of players being sent directly to the bigs all bad decisions and a few players / teams got lucky (Winfield / Olerud, etc)?

Singular talents that happen a few times a decade. It's very, very difficult to find someone developed enough at 21 or 22 who can succeed after a huge jump to the majors. High level college to the majors is probably the equivalent of at least Frederick-to-the-majors, maybe Delmarva.

And today MLB teams are more risk averse because of the money involved. There are probably players that could succeed doing it (Wieters comes to mind), but teams almost always take the conservative track. It was a way different game when Al Kaline did it, pretty different with Winfield, kind of different with Pete Incaviglia and Olerud.

[crawdad]

I think Darren Dreifort was the last one to do it. Sometimes you see a guy come up for a bullpen visit at the end of the year. Often you do not want to start service clocks or let a guy get a taste of success on a more even playing field with regard to his own development.

[bluedog]

Singular talents that happen a few times a decade. It's very, very difficult to find someone developed enough at 21 or 22 who can succeed after a huge jump to the majors. High level college to the majors is probably the equivalent of at least Frederick-to-the-majors, maybe Delmarva.

And today MLB teams are more risk averse because of the money involved. There are probably players that could succeed doing it (Wieters comes to mind), but teams almost always take the conservative track. It was a way different game when Al Kaline did it, pretty different with Winfield, kind of different with Pete Incaviglia and Olerud.

I very much appreciate the reasoned responses to the question instead of the "that's stupid - you're an idiot" responses that are typical.

Another question though. If Weiters is expected to reach the bigs by 2009, is he really learning anything in the minors other than "hey, I can hit these guys" in that short a time span? Is the real barrier for guys like Weiters just the transition to wooden bats and building up confidence?

Because it seems to me that if Weiters is in A ball for half a season, AA for half and AAA for half (or less), that there isn't a whole lot that he can be learning from his coaches since he's barely shaken their hand before he's off to another ballclub.

[crawdad]

I very much appreciate the reasoned responses to the question instead of the "that's stupid - you're an idiot" responses that are typical.

Another question though. If Weiters is expected to reach the bigs by 2009, is he really learning anything in the minors other than "hey, I can hit these guys" in that short a time span? Is the real barrier for guys like Weiters just the transition to wooden bats and building up confidence?

Because it seems to me that if Weiters is in A ball for half a season, AA for half and AAA for half (or less), that there isn't a whole lot that he can be learning from his coaches since he's barely shaken their hand before he's off to another ballclub.

I think the best way to look at it is being a process of acclimation. You have to adjust to the talent present at each level. Wieters is hammering HiA pitching, but at AA the quality of the pitches is better and the command is better. Pitchers are able to challenge a hitter. Plus, you are less able to just sit and wait for a mistake. It is more difficult in AAA and much more in the bigs. It is probably easier for Wieters to adjust when the level of competition is lower and those adjustments will put him in a better place to succeed. I really think Nick Markakis is blessed with a certain baseball acumen that allowed him to soldier through the rough spots. Ideally, you do not want to force a prospect to go through that. Wieters may not have the same mental makeup.

It is interesting to note . . . because this question has been asked so much about Orioles' catchers I wrote up a blog entry today. Wieters MLE OPS+ is 102. That is impressive. It shoud be noted MLEs are far less accurate the lower you get in the minors.

[JJLinn29]

I think Darren Dreifort was the last one to do it. Sometimes you see a guy come up for a bullpen visit at the end of the year. Often you do not want to start service clocks or let a guy get a taste of success on a more even playing field with regard to his own development.

Xavier Nady did it in 2000 or 2001. He's turned out alright.

[crawdad]

Xavier Nady did it in 2000 or 2001. He's turned out alright.

Double check yourself. He had 1 at bat in San Diego in 2000. Then he spent the next 2 and a quarter years in the minors. He proceeded to be pretty awful until the tail end of 2006. That is not how you deal with MLB service time.