Jay to the Cubs; Does that affect us?

[maybenxtyr]

8 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

He'll replace Bautista in the filed, but who do they get to replace Encarnacion? Kendres Morales was a good signing, but they still need a LFer and a 1B. 

They have Justin Smoak at first, and Upton in LF. They still have a better offense than Baltimore even without Bautista and EE. They also have better pitching, so I'm not sure what your point is... Right now Boston and Toronto have to be the early favorites in the AL East.

[MDtransplant757]

6 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

They have Justin Smoak at first, and Upton in LF. They still have a better offense than Baltimore even without Bautista and EE. They also have better pitching, so I'm not sure what your point is... Right now Boston and Toronto have to be the early favorites in the AL East.

Smoak is ok at 1B. Not a game changer, but good enough. Upton can't hit LHP. I really don't think their offense is as potent as this past year. Boston needs to find a replacement for Papi and work their pen. I think Sandoval might be good as a DH, but it has yet to be seen if the panda can still play

[WEAVERMAN]

17 hours ago, backwardsk said:

I think this is nice move by the Cubs.  No need to commit to Fowler long term when you have Almora.

I do wonder how Fowler's market turns out with, conceivably, the Astros and Cubs out.

Wish we landed Jay, but I wouldn't have given him 8.

 

 

Huge overpay by CHC.  He's not worth 3M.

[weams]

8 hours ago, Babypowder said:

In an 18 inning sample size, everything is voodoo.

Any form of value determination should take that into consideration. And when it does not appropriately value a player, Jason Heyward occurs. 

[Babypowder]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Any form of value determination should take that into consideration. And when it does not appropriately value a player, Jason Heyward occurs. 

But WAR also said Heyward wasn't good this year. I'm not sure how WAR has anything to do with it when a player declines.

WAR said Adam Jones was a good player, was that wrong because he wasn't good this year? One does not effect the other.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

But WAR also said Heyward wasn't good this year. I'm not sure how WAR has anything to do with it when a player declines.

WAR said Adam Jones was a good player, was that wrong because he wasn't good this year? One does not effect the other.

Maybe it does not tune in the things that really talk about who is good. But instead, who did the stats make look good for a time. 

[waroriole]

11 hours ago, weams said:

Not like the Orioles would have been in on Jay at 8 or Fowler at any amount that he may command. 

Any chance we could get Fowler on the hook for something like 4/70, drag it out until all the teams have filled their OF vacancies, then back out?

[Babypowder]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Maybe it does not tune in the things that really talk about who is good. But instead, who did the stats make look good for a time. 

I think players just do better or worse from year to year for a multitude of reasons. Jason Heyward went from a 120 wRC+ to a 72. Players have bad years. He wasn't the first, and won't be the last. It has nothing to do with how some metric valued him previously.

Andrew McCutchen also had a bad year. Does that mean he actually has never been good because WAR said he was?

[Number5]

8 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Any chance we could get Fowler on the hook for something like 4/70, drag it out until all the teams have filled their OF vacancies, then back out?

Catfish

[weams]

13 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

I think players just do better or worse from year to year for a multitude of reasons. Jason Heyward went from a 120 wRC+ to a 72. Players have bad years. He wasn't the first, and won't be the last. It has nothing to do with how some metric valued him previously.

Andrew McCutchen also had a bad year. Does that mean he actually has never been good because WAR said he was?

And sometime the data is fuzzy. Certainly it is sharper than the eye test, but far from perfect in valuing them as baseball players. 

[Babypowder]

1 minute ago, weams said:

And sometime the data is fuzzy. Certainly it is sharper than the eye test, but far from perfect in valuing them as baseball players. 

I still don't understand the argument. Heyward had a bad year, WAR agrees Heyward had a bad year. Any player in the major leagues would have a major value slip if they declined on offense by 40 percentage points.

How does that have anything to do with WAR?

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

I still don't understand the argument. Heyward had a bad year, WAR agrees Heyward had a bad year. Any player in the major leagues would have a major value slip if they declined on offense by 40 percentage points.

How does that have anything to do with WAR?

Heyward was overvalued by WAR because of the inaccurate valuation of the defensive component.  They paid for the value WAR said he had. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Heyward was overvalued by WAR because of the inaccurate valuation of the defensive component.  They paid for the value WAR said he had. 

So you don't think his defense suppressed the offenses of opposing clubs as much as the metrics did?

I could see where having someone like Heyward in RF instead of someone like Trumbo could make a significant difference in runs allowed over the course of a season.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

So you don't think his defense suppressed the offenses of opposing clubs as much as the metrics did?

I could see where having someone like Heyward in RF instead of someone like Trumbo could make a significant difference in runs allowed over the course of a season.

It might. The way defensive data is currently used is still fuzzy. It's getting better though.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

It might. The way defensive data is currently used is still fuzzy. It's getting better though.

It certainly isn't prefect but I can't recall anything hugely erroneous coming out of them recently.

And the MLBAM data is going to improve things in a hurry.

I'm more worried about the various pitching models they use.