Update: O's sign Trumbo to 3yr/$37 mil deal

[Babypowder]

Just now, Number5 said:

Carter can't play right field when Smith sits.  And Smith absolutely must sit vs. LHP.  If you sign Carter, you must either sign two additional RH hitting outfielders to fill the two remaining roster spots, or sign one and rely on Rickard for the other.  Trumbo is by no means a stellar outfielder, but at least he can play the position.  Say what you will, but Trumbo would provide us with more roster flexibility than Carter would.

No question Trumbo is worth a little more because you can put a glove on him in an emergency, but is Trumbo being able to act as a statue in RF in 30 percent of games worth 3/40+ rather than Carter and say Gutierrez, Raburn, or Jennings for cheap? I think I'd prefer Carter on 1/7 and a small deal for one of those guys and letting Rickard platoon.

Of course, I'd really just rather get Pagan and Valbuena if I had my druthers at the moment.

[Tony-OH]

36 minutes ago, Finisher said:

Carter is pretty much the same hitter as Trumbo at half the cost. Career lines:

Trumbo .303 OBP, .776 OPS

Carter .315 OBP, .778 OPS

Not sure why we should lose the pick and pay twice as much for Trumbo.

You know, I wanted to disagree with you. I wanted to say, "Go look at these stats" and then go "boom". But instead I went to baseball reference and did some pretty detailed research and over the last four years, and you can argue that Carter has been the better hitter overall during that span. His only main drawback is that his K rate of 33.2% over the last four years is pretty bad, and combined with Davis they might strike out 400 times next season. that's a lot of k's. Now Trumbo strikes out a lot too but his 25.5% K rate is a bit more palatable.

Saying that, Carter is younger, walks more, sees more pitches per PA (works pitchers better) and if cheaper, especially if significantly cheaper along with the pick we'll get for losing Trumbo, then I think I agree.

Sign me up for the sign Carter and let Trumbo go.

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Carter can't play right field when Smith sits.  And Smith absolutely must sit vs. LHP.  If you sign Carter, you must either sign two additional RH hitting outfielders to fill the two remaining roster spots, or sign one and rely on Rickard for the other.  Trumbo is by no means a stellar outfielder, but at least he can play the position.  Say what you will, but Trumbo would provide us with more roster flexibility than Carter would.

Why signed another RH OF? They have one in Dariel Alvarez who can platoon with Smith right now in RF. Sign Carter, give Alvarez the first chancre at winning the platoon role, if he fails there's still Tavarez or maybe even Walker who hits lefties pretty well in AAA. Tell you what though, Davis, Carter and Walker in the same lineup could definitely set some records for k's. haha

[webbrick2010]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You know, I wanted to disagree with you. I wanted to say, "Go look at these stats" and then go "boom". But instead I went to baseball reference and did some pretty detailed research and over the last four years, and you can argue that Carter has been the better hitter overall during that span. His only main drawback is that his K rate of 33.2% over the last four years is pretty bad, and combined with Davis they might strike out 400 times next season. that's a lot of k's. Now Trumbo strikes out a lot too but his 25.5% K rate is a bit more palatable.

Saying that, Carter is younger, walks more, sees more pitches per PA (works pitchers better) and if cheaper, especially if significantly cheaper along with the pick we'll get for losing Trumbo, then I think I agree.

Sign me up for the sign Carter and let Trumbo go.

Of course DD will sign Trumbo, he's a "good" team mate and Buck likes him, and he'll be back out in RF for 85 games

[El Gordo]

Could we afford both Carter and Pagan? How much more if any would they cost than Trumbo?

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Why signed another RH OF? They have one in Dariel Alvarez who can platoon with Smith right now in RF. Sign Carter, give Alvarez the first chancre at winning the platoon role, if he fails there's still Tavarez or maybe even Walker who hits lefties pretty well in AAA. Tell you what though, Davis, Carter and Walker in the same lineup could definitely set some records for k's. haha

You would be absolutely depending on Alvarez or Rickard succeeding and/or Kim succeeding at playing everyday.  Carter provides zero flexibility.  Trumbo is the better player than Carter, IMO.  Since he hits left-handed, Tavarez can be on the team if Trumbo is, but can't if Carter is.

[Number5]

2 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Could we afford both Carter and Pagan? How much more if any would they cost than Trumbo?

There would be no sense in signing both Pagan and Trumbo.  Batting right-haned is Pagan's weak side.  If you sign Carter, he would unquestionably be the DH.  We have Smith and Kim in the outfield vs. RHP.  Pagan doesn't help there.  If we sign Pagan to play everyday, Kim could DH vs. RHP.  There would be no need for Carter, who can't play anywhere in the field, since we have Davis.

[Number5]

7 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Of course DD will sign Trumbo, he's a "good" team mate and Buck likes him, and he'll be back out in RF for 85 games

So, you think we will face 85 left-handed starting pitchers this season?

[El Gordo]

Just now, Number5 said:

There would be no sense in signing both Pagan and Trumbo.  Batting right-haned is Pagan's weak side.  If you sign Carter, he would unquestionably be the DH.  We have Smith and Kim in the outfield vs. RHP.  Pagan doesn't help there.  If we sign Pagan to play everyday, Kim could DH vs. RHP.  There would be no need for Carter, who can't play anywhere in the field, since we have Davis.

 

[webbrick2010]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

So, you think we will face 85 left-handed starting pitchers this season?

How many did he play last year

Who do we have to play OF... Adam Jones and nothing ?  Not a single regular OF'er, Not a single + defender Seth Smith isn't going to hit enough to keep Trumbo from RF and someone like Mancini or Carter or ??? from playing DH

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Number5 said:

You would be absolutely depending on Alvarez or Rickard succeeding and/or Kim succeeding at playing everyday.  Carter provides zero flexibility.  Trumbo is the better player than Carter, IMO.  Since he hits left-handed, Tavarez can be on the team if Trumbo is, but can't if Carter is.

So, you've already decided those two can't hit lefties and platoon with Kim and Smith?

Here's what I would do:

1. Sign Chris Carter to be DH
2. Give Kim every opportunity to play against all pitching in spring training to see how he hits lefties. If he holds his own, make him a full-time left fielder.
3. Rickard is my 4th outfielder regardless, unless he's beaten out by Tavarez/Alvarez/Walker (don't see it)
4. Sign a Drew Stubbs type to a minor league contract and have him there to compete as well. Marlon Byrd could be an option as well if he willing to sign a minor league deal.
5. My 5th outfielder competition is going to probably be between Alvarez, Tavarez, Stubbs/Byrd and Walker. Even though Tavarez is a left-handed hitter, he's held his own over his career against lefties so there is little to suggest he can't hit them.

I don't see any reason to sign a high priced right-handed hitting outfielder like Pagan. Now if Pagan's price is reasonable then maybe, but I think this is a situation where the Orioles can save some resources and go with in house options.

 

[Frobby]

Just now, webbrick2010 said:

How many did he play last year

Who do we have to play OF... Adam Jones and nothing ?  Not a single regular OF'er, Not a single + defender Seth Smith isn't going to hit enough to keep Trumbo from RF and someone like Mancini or Carter or ??? from playing DH

Smith is going to get the at bats that went to Alvarez last year, except that Alvarez was DHing so Trumbo had to play the field, whereas Smith will be in RF so that Trumbo can DH.    That puts Trumbo in the field for maybe 50 games vs. LHP.

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, Number5 said:

There would be no sense in signing both Pagan and Trumbo.  Batting right-haned is Pagan's weak side.  If you sign Carter, he would unquestionably be the DH.  We have Smith and Kim in the outfield vs. RHP.  Pagan doesn't help there.  If we sign Pagan to play everyday, Kim could DH vs. RHP.  There would be no need for Carter, who can't play anywhere in the field, since we have Davis.

Of course Davis could go play RF on occasion if needed.

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So, you've already decided those two can't hit lefties and platoon with Kim and Smith?

Here's what I would do:

1. Sign Chris Carter to be DH
2. Give Kim every opportunity to play against all pitching in spring training to see how he hits lefties. If he holds his own, make him a full-time left fielder.
3. Rickard is my 4th outfielder regardless, unless he's beaten out by Tavarez/Alvarez/Walker (don't see it)
4. Sign a Drew Stubbs type to a minor league contract and have him there to compete as well. Marlon Byrd could be an option as well if he willing to sign a minor league deal.
5. My 5th outfielder competition is going to probably be between Alvarez, Tavarez, Stubbs/Byrd and Walker. Even though Tavarez is a left-handed hitter, he's held his own over his career against lefties so there is little to suggest he can't hit them.

I don't see any reason to sign a high priced right-handed hitting outfielder like Pagan. Now if Pagan's price is reasonable then maybe, but I think this is a situation where the Orioles can save some resources and go with in house options.

 

No.  On the contrary, Trumbo provides some flexibility in the event that any of our wishful thinking for Alvarez, Rickard, or Kim doesn't pan out.  Signing Carter locks us in, do or die.  All of what you outline can happen with Trumbo, plus we would have options should any parts of it fail.

[Rene88]

I care much less about the Trumbo situation than I do the SP situation.