Orioles told Bautista's reps...Orioles fans don't like him

[sportsfan8703]

I'd almost rather have Bautista at 2/34 than Trumbo at 4/50.  I've rooted for worse in sports.  Sports betting will make you root for crazy things.  

[Number5]

12 hours ago, crawjo said:

One year, $17 million, not including draft pick. The value of the lost first-round pick is defrayed over many seasons (and also speculative, with a wide variance between the player who never makes the major leagues and the one who becomes a regular). But more importantly, if the Orioles are intent on competing for a championship in 2017, Bautista brings them closer to that goal. The pick does not. If the organization were in a rebuild (which, arguably, it should be) then the pick would obviously be more important. 

To disregard of the value of an important asset like a first round pick would be a monumental mistake for a GM.  For a fan on a message board it is no big deal, and merely makes it difficult to have a conversation, given the lack of common ground on which to base a discussion.  Yes, the estimated present value of the first round pick is about $12.5 million.  This takes into account the probability of the various outcomes for the player.  Again, that is the value today.  The ceiling future value is, of course, many times that.  Every player and prospect, including both the Orioles' 2017 first round pick and Jose Bautista, carries the risk of being completely worthless, as well as the possibility of achieving their ceiling value.  Deciding that Bautista carries zero risk and will put up his best possible season, while the first round pick is virtually certain to fail, has an extremely small chance of being the correct choice.  You have the luxury of ignoring that and pretending that the pick has no value.  DD does not.  It is hard to imagine a bigger mistake that DD could manage to make at this point in time than signing Bautista to a one-year $17 million contract and throwing away the pick.  To think that Bautista is the final piece necessary to assure a solid run for a championship, and worthy of such a costly transaction, is folly.  Throwing away $29.5 million for one year of such a player is indefensible.  Fortunately, I am confident that it won't happen. 

[Can_of_corn]

I wouldn't hold hard on that 12.5M Valuation, it was just something Weams and I agreed to.  I'm sure someone can come up with a figure with superior methodology backing it up.

I do think it is ballpark accurate for what that is worth.

[ArtVanDelay]

3 hours ago, MagicBird said:

I prefer Batista never wear and Orioles uniform.  Even for 1 yr.

[25 Nuggets]

5 minutes ago, Number5 said:

To disregard of the value of an important asset like a first round pick would be a monumental mistake for a GM.  For a fan on a message board it is no big deal, and merely makes it difficult to have a conversation, given the lack of common ground on which to base a discussion.  Yes, the estimated present value of the first round pick is about $12.5 million.  This takes into account the probability of the various outcomes for the player.  Again, that is the value today.  The ceiling future value is, of course, many times that.  Every player and prospect, including both the Orioles' 2017 first round pick and Jose Bautista, carries the risk of being completely worthless, as well as the possibility of achieving their ceiling value.  Deciding that Bautista carries zero risk and will put up his best possible season, while the first round pick is virtually certain to fail, has an extremely small chance of being the correct choice.  You have the luxury of ignoring that and pretending that the pick has no value.  DD does not.  It is hard to imagine a bigger mistake that DD could manage to make at this point in time than signing Bautista to a one-year $17 million contract and throwing away the pick.  To think that Bautista is the final piece necessary to assure a solid run for a championship, and worthy of such a costly transaction, is folly.  Throwing away $29.5 million for one year of such a player is indefensible.  Fortunately, I am confident that it won't happen. 

Well put sir.

Signing Bautista to a 1 yr deal would be Duquette's worst move as an Oriole GM, and that's saying a lot.  (slightly worse than Gallardo as well as selling off the comp pick)

[25 Nuggets]

2 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

AAAAAAH!!!!!

I'M BLIND!!!!!

[ArtVanDelay]

4 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

AAAAAAH!!!!!

I'M BLIND!!!!!

Blinded by the ugly hat, right? lol

[Number5]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wouldn't hold hard on that 12.5M Valuation, it was just something Weams and I agreed to.  I'm sure someone can come up with a figure with superior methodology backing it up.

I do think it is ballpark accurate for what that is worth.

I have seen such estimates before.  IIRC, it is estimated that a comp pick after round 1 is worth some $8-10 million.  The value of the Orioles' first pick (21st I think?) would be higher, right?    It seems to me that I read that the value of the top pick in the draft is estimated at some $50 million.  Your $12.5 figure seems about right to me.  Even if it were only $8 million, the point would be the same regarding any consideration given to signing Bautista to a one-year deal. 

This Hardball Times article from 2014 came up with a net value range of $16.3 to $18.7 for a pick numbered between 21 and 25 in round 1:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

This 2013 article comes up with an average net value for picks #16-30 in round 1 to be $13.68 million.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/25/4457048/2013-mlb-draft-how-valuable-are-draft-picks

Unless we think that these estimates would be considerably lower in 2017 than in 2013-2014 for some reason, I'd say that $12.5 is a very conservative figure for us to use.

The bottom line is that is quite clear that a MLB GM cannot act as if a first round pick is worthless.

[wildbillhiccup]

I think we're missing the point of this thread. What did Duquette have to gain by publicly stating that we weren't interested in Bautista because our fans don't like him? Absolutely nothing. Rule 101 of business is you don't burn bridges. Not in situation like this where there was absolutely no need to do so. Even if the "our fans don't like him" words came from Angelos' mouth Duquette should have had the where with all to be more tactful when he relayed the message. He should have simply said we've decided to go in a different direction (at this time) and will let you know if something changes). 

I'm losing faith in Duquette by the minute. He's done nothing to convince me that he's not just doing the bare minimum and biding his team. I really wish we'd hire a hungry young and upcoming GM with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think we're missing the point of this thread. What did Duquette have to gain by publicly stating that we weren't interested in Bautista because our fans don't like him? Absolutely nothing. Rule 101 of business is you don't burn bridges. Not in situation like this where there was absolutely no need to do so. Even if the "our fans don't like him" words came from Angelos' mouth Duquette should have had the where with all to be more tactful when he relayed the message. He should have simply said we've decided to go in a different direction (at this time) and will let you know if something changes). 

I'm losing faith in Duquette by the minute. He's done nothing to convince me that he's not just doing the bare minimum and biding his team. I really wish we'd hire a hungry young and upcoming GM with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. 

Good will of the fans that don't like Bautista.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I have seen such estimates before.  IIRC, it is estimated that a comp pick after round 1 is worth some $8-10 million.  The value of the Orioles' first pick (21st I think?) would be higher, right?    It seems to me that I read that the value of the top pick in the draft is estimated at some $50 million.  Your $12.5 figure seems about right to me.  Even if it were only $8 million, the point would be the same regarding any consideration given to signing Bautista to a one-year deal. 

This Hardball Times article from 2014 came up with a net value range of $16.3 to $18.7 for a pick numbered between 21 and 25 in round 1:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

This 2013 article comes up with an average net value for picks #16-30 in round 1 to be $13.68 million.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/25/4457048/2013-mlb-draft-how-valuable-are-draft-picks

Unless we think that these estimates would be considerably lower in 2017 than in 2013-2014 for some reason, I'd say that $12.5 is a very conservative figure for us to use.

The bottom line is that is quite clear that a MLB GM cannot act as if a first round pick is worthless.

I know and obviously agree with all of that.

I just wanted to remind you where the 12.5 number came from.

 

[wildbillhiccup]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Good will of the fans that don't like Bautista.

The average fan isn't following O's offseason acquisition rumors. It served no purpose. Just bad business. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The average fan isn't following O's offseason acquisition rumors. It served no purpose. Just bad business. 

Yea, I'm going to disagree.

At no cost to him he made some fans happy and tossed out a dig at a player his players don't like.  Is there a big gain in making O'Day smile as he drinks his morning coffee?  Nah, but if he isn't signing here no harm was done.

For the record I read a National piece on the Dan Diss so the news did get out there.

[Number5]

13 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think we're missing the point of this thread. What did Duquette have to gain by publicly stating that we weren't interested in Bautista because our fans don't like him? Absolutely nothing. Rule 101 of business is you don't burn bridges. Not in situation like this where there was absolutely no need to do so. Even if the "our fans don't like him" words came from Angelos' mouth Duquette should have had the where with all to be more tactful when he relayed the message. He should have simply said we've decided to go in a different direction (at this time) and will let you know if something changes). 

I'm losing faith in Duquette by the minute. He's done nothing to convince me that he's not just doing the bare minimum and biding his team. I really wish we'd hire a hungry young and upcoming GM with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. 

I think perhaps that you missed that it was Bautista's rep that first made it public.  After it was out, DD confirmed when asked that, yes, he told that to the rep, and meant it.  He didn't go out of his way to publicly say this, but once the rep put it out there DD wasn't going to deny it.  To me, there is a big distinction there, and Bautista's agent was actually not helping his client by publicizing the conversation.  Reading what fans on message boards across the country posted at the time it was nearly unanimously:  "Yeah, we don't want him on our team, either."  Meanwhile, the guy remains unsigned.

[crawjo]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

To disregard of the value of an important asset like a first round pick would be a monumental mistake for a GM.  For a fan on a message board it is no big deal, and merely makes it difficult to have a conversation, given the lack of common ground on which to base a discussion.  Yes, the estimated present value of the first round pick is about $12.5 million.  This takes into account the probability of the various outcomes for the player.  Again, that is the value today.  The ceiling future value is, of course, many times that.  Every player and prospect, including both the Orioles' 2017 first round pick and Jose Bautista, carries the risk of being completely worthless, as well as the possibility of achieving their ceiling value.  Deciding that Bautista carries zero risk and will put up his best possible season, while the first round pick is virtually certain to fail, has an extremely small chance of being the correct choice.  You have the luxury of ignoring that and pretending that the pick has no value.  DD does not.  It is hard to imagine a bigger mistake that DD could manage to make at this point in time than signing Bautista to a one-year $17 million contract and throwing away the pick.  To think that Bautista is the final piece necessary to assure a solid run for a championship, and worthy of such a costly transaction, is folly.  Throwing away $29.5 million for one year of such a player is indefensible.  Fortunately, I am confident that it won't happen. 

Was Duquette wrong to throw away a pick for Nelson Cruz in 2014? I feel like you are operating from a premise that states that Bautista is damaged goods, and not a productive player anymore. If true, I find that very bizarre to say the least. Even with injuries this past year Bautista was a useful hitter. In prior years, he was an elite slugger. I think if he's healthy next year, the chances are good that he will be elite.