Do we really understand our team's strengths and weaknesses?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I think there is very little doubt that an offense that gets on base is a more consistent offense than the low OBP, big power offenses the Orioles have employed. One of my biggest critics of Duquette is that he built a one-dimensional offense and that is why the teams has long dry spells with the offense and that makes them tough to watch at times. 

I honestly didn't think the O's were more streaky on offense than most other teams in 2012-15.   But it would be hard to take that position in 2016.  

I do think that because most of us are so focused on the O's, we don't notice the hot and cold streaks of other teams and tend to think our streaks are more pronounced than others'.    Some time this winter I'm going to try to come up with a method to test whether it is actually true.  

[weams]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Do you have any evidence that a homer-driven offense is less effective against good pitching than a "scratch it out" offense?    I feel like I hear this theory all the time, but nobody ever backs it up.    About two-thirds of the way through last season, I did an analysis of how the O's had done against the top 10 pitchers in the league, and concluded that they outperformed the rest of the league against that group.  http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/26010-myth-the-orioles-cant-hit-good-pitchers/#comment-1985357

Don't get me wrong, I think our offense tends to be overrated, as I indicated in the OP.    But if you give the proposition, "two teams score an equal number of runs per game on average, but one is very dependent on home runs and the other one isn't.    Which one does better against the better pitchers in the league?", I don't know of any evidence to say that the less homer-dependent team does better.

 

This is so very great. 

[webbrick2010]

Also it would seem that the late fall/playoff type weather penalizes the power teams

Not that I have seen any statistical analysis to back that up, just seem logical that hitting homers when it's under 50 is tougher, than beating out singles and stealing bases

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Also it would seem that the late fall/playoff type weather penalizes the power teams

Not that I have seen any statistical analysis to back that up, just seem logical that hitting homers when it's under 50 is tougher, than beating out singles and stealing bases

I do believe you are right about that, though I don't know of any evidence, either.

[weams]

33 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Also it would seem that the late fall/playoff type weather penalizes the power teams

Not that I have seen any statistical analysis to back that up, just seem logical that hitting homers when it's under 50 is tougher, than beating out singles and stealing bases

Of course warm weather destinations and domed stadia would negate that. Also. Strong. Is strong. 

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Also it would seem that the late fall/playoff type weather penalizes the power teams

Not that I have seen any statistical analysis to back that up, just seem logical that hitting homers when it's under 50 is tougher, than beating out singles and stealing bases

 

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do believe you are right about that, though I don't know of any evidence, either.

OK, so I did some quickie analysis.   Since 2000, World Series teams have averaged 4.15 runs and 0.93 homers per game in the WS.    In those years, major league teams averaged 4.56 runs and 1.04 HR in the regular season.   (Note: I don't know what the actual teams that went to the World Series averaged; that's more work than I care to do right now.)   So, runs in general are down by 9% in the WS, while homers in general are down 11%.     So, that suggests a slight disadvantage for homer-reliant teams in the post-season, but I'd say it's not a huge effect compared to the general downturn in offense.

[Ohfan67]

But of course hitters are not facing average pitchers in the WS. 

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

But of course hitters are not facing average pitchers in the WS. 

Actually, the Cubs faced Trevor Bauer twice and beat him twice and faced Josh Tomlin twice, beating him once.

[oriolediehard]

The O's need to sign a slugger for the O's to compete in 2018. Either sign Encarnation or Trumbo. Anybody is fooling themselves if they think Trey Mancini is going to do the job to replace them.  Remember when the O's thought they could win without Nelson Cruz.  The truth hurts.

http://birdswatcher.com/2016/12/16/baltimore-orioles-encarnacion/?utm_campaign=FanSided+Daily&utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email   

[oriolediehard]

I meant the year 2017

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Do you have any evidence that a homer-driven offense is less effective against good pitching than a "scratch it out" offense?    I feel like I hear this theory all the time, but nobody ever backs it up.    About two-thirds of the way through last season, I did an analysis of how the O's had done against the top 10 pitchers in the league, and concluded that they outperformed the rest of the league against that group.  http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/26010-myth-the-orioles-cant-hit-good-pitchers/#comment-1985357

Don't get me wrong, I think our offense tends to be overrated, as I indicated in the OP.    But if you give the proposition, "two teams score an equal number of runs per game on average, but one is very dependent on home runs and the other one isn't.    Which one does better against the better pitchers in the league?", I don't know of any evidence to say that the less homer-dependent team does better.

 

I feel we have had this conversation before, Frobby. I don't have numbers, just theory. I am less concerned about good/bad pitching, so I take that part back. My larger point was about versatility and the ability to score the exact number of runs needed to win in a given situation. I don't think you do that by swinging for the fences every pitch. When Trumbo hit that HR down 3 in the 9th against the Astros, our win probability was actually lower than if we had Kim up there trying to draw a walk.

[Ripken]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Do you have any evidence that a homer-driven offense is less effective against good pitching than a "scratch it out" offense?    I feel like I hear this theory all the time, but nobody ever backs it up.    About two-thirds of the way through last season, I did an analysis of how the O's had done against the top 10 pitchers in the league, and concluded that they outperformed the rest of the league against that group.  http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/26010-myth-the-orioles-cant-hit-good-pitchers/#comment-1985357

Don't get me wrong, I think our offense tends to be overrated, as I indicated in the OP.    But if you give the proposition, "two teams score an equal number of runs per game on average, but one is very dependent on home runs and the other one isn't.    Which one does better against the better pitchers in the league?", I don't know of any evidence to say that the less homer-dependent team does better.

 

I'll interject my answer... I don't think there is real evidence.  The eye test is somewhat concerning though.  Our last game for example.  There are those, me included, that have real doubt as to our ability to make a long post season run.  It could happen, of course, but I've been worn into real frustration wrt this team's hacking ways.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, oriolediehard said:

The O's need to sign a slugger for the O's to compete in 2018. Either sign Encarnation or Trumbo. Anybody is fooling themselves if they think Trey Mancini is going to do the job to replace them.  Remember when the O's thought they could win without Nelson Cruz.  The truth hurts.

http://birdswatcher.com/2016/12/16/baltimore-orioles-encarnacion/?utm_campaign=FanSided+Daily&utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email   

The 2014 Orioles scored 705 Runs.

The 2015 Orioles scored 713 Runs.

The 2014 Orioles allowed 593 Runs.

The 2015 Orioles allowed 693 Runs.

I think the difference was the pitching.

[bmw600]

The one thing I notice is a lot of people clamoring for a LH outfield bat. I'd argue that a RH batter would better fit our team. While I acknowledge that most of our team is already RH, most of them actually have reverse splits.  Here is everyone, other than Mancini who has so few ABs, who is likely to be batting here last year, and their career OPS splits (vs RHP/vs LHP):

Davis:  .868/.737

Schoop: .749/.607

Hardy: .704/.764

Machado: .820/.784

Kim: .839/.227

Jones: .795/.729

Rickard: .618/.861

Joseph: .617/.606

Flaherty: .647/.605

Castillo: .697/.840

So, other than Rickard and his less than 300 PAs, the only players we have that hit lefties better than righties are Hardy and Castillo.  I think anot her RH (or LH with reverse splits) is who we would want to sign to be our RF.

 

[Hallas]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The 2014 Orioles scored 705 Runs.

The 2015 Orioles scored 713 Runs.

The 2014 Orioles allowed 593 Runs.

The 2015 Orioles allowed 693 Runs.

I think the difference was the pitching.

Those 30+ runs allowed by the outfield defense over league average could have had a hand in it too.

I hope Jones can figure out how to throw again.  He had a nearly 2-win swing on defense alone between 2015 and 2016.  We still need to sign a RF that can play a little defense though.