Glenn Clark: Are The 2017 Orioles Actually Better Than They Were In 2016?

[FlipTheBird]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They were better in the second half.

Their pitching staff got itself together in the second half. Came back to where it should have been. The bats cooled. They were hitting something like .292 as a team going into the break.

[FlipTheBird]

19 hours ago, PaulFolk said:

Betts put up an MVP-type performance at the age of 23, and all three of his seasons in the majors have been well above average. To suggest he could "go either way" as far as his career trend seems off-base. Unless by "either way" you mean he'll be either very good or ridiculously good.

Bogaerts has put together two very strong seasons in a row at ages 22 and 23. If you want to say he's had an inconsistent career because he wasn't a star in his age 20 and 21 seasons, that seems a bit harsh to me. I'd be surprised if he didn't have another strong year this season, barring injury, and he hasn't reached his prime yet.

As for Bradley, I don't know where you're getting that he was below replacement offensively three of the last four months. His only truly bad month offensively was August, and don't forget that he plays a Gold Glove-caliber center field. He's had two very good seasons in a row.

I think you're grasping at straws here. I hate to admit it as an Orioles fan, but the Red Sox have three excellent young players in their lineup (not to mention Benintendi, the #1 prospect in baseball) who don't figure to regress anytime soon.

I mean, Betts' overall numbers might dip if the O's can keep him from OPSing 1.300 against them this year.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Their pitching staff got itself together in the second half. Came back to where it should have been. The bats cooled. They were hitting something like .292 as a team going into the break.

You're right, though even after the ASB they averaged 5.17 runs/game (5.62 before the break).

[FlipTheBird]

13 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Agree, their young guys make me envious.

Man, that 2011 draft has really produced some talent. Sox got Betts in the fifth, Jackie Bradley, Jr. as a comp pick.

Orioles, of course, took Bundy No. 4 overall.

Some of the other names taken that year include Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Anthony Rendon, Javier Baez, George Springer, Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Kolten Wong, Joe Panik, Trevor Story, Blake Snell, Daniel Norris,  Billy Burns, Kevin Pillar and Michael Fulmer, among others.

[joeyc]

23 hours ago, thezeroes said:

Mookie Betts had a career year in 2016.  Will he regress to his average or put up better numbers??

Jackie Bradley had a career year in 2016.  Will he regress to his average or put up better numbers??

Xander Bogarts had a career year in 2016.  Will he regress to his average or put up better numbers.

Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez will be into their age 33 seasons.  Will they regress to his aging factor (10% decline) or put up better numbers than 2016???

David Ortiz retired and took his 1.021 OPS with him.  Do they have that replacement level on the roster???

The Red Soxs won 93 Games in 2016 so to fall into
A Lot Better" they would need to win an additional 10 to 12 Games IMO.  I do not see this happening.

Didn't they add Chris Sale as well. There's your 10-12 games easy.

[25 Nuggets]

8 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Man, that 2011 draft has really produced some talent. Sox got Betts in the fifth, Jackie Bradley, Jr. as a comp pick.

Orioles, of course, took Bundy No. 4 overall.

Some of the other names taken that year include Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Anthony Rendon, Javier Baez, George Springer, Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Kolten Wong, Joe Panik, Trevor Story, Blake Snell, Daniel Norris,  Billy Burns, Kevin Pillar and Michael Fulmer, among others.

That's some pretty sick talent.  Best draft in recent memory?

[joeyc]

8 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

The Red Sox are maybe better than last year.  I have them about even, a 95-ish win team.  That pretty much amounts to them losing David Ortiz and picking up Chris Sale.  The loss of Ortiz will have an effect up-and-down the lineup.  They are not scoring 101 runs more than any other team in the AL again.  In fact I think Cleveland scores the most runs in the AL this year.  On the other hand, with Sale, their rotation matches up with anyone and with Moreland kicking Han-Ram to DH, their defense is elite everywhere except SS/3B.

i don't see how the Yankees are appreciably better, yet.  I think in a couple years they will resume their place as kings of the AL East.  Not now.  They are however probably the best 4th place team on paper in baseball.  Depends on how Arizona rebounds from a miserable underachievement in 2016.  They'll be sort of in the Wild Card hunt just like last year..

The Orioles are about the same too in my opinion.

The one team in the AL East that I think is worse is Toronto.  Kendrys Morales is a step down from Edwin Encarnacion, period.  Ezequiel Carrera and/or Melvin Upton are a step down from Michael Saunders.  Bautista is a year older and his defense in RF is out the door.  Josh Donaldson is already dinged up and they cannot afford him to remain that way through the season or else they will have trouble scoring runs.

So, from what I see, the AL East looks like Boston-Baltimore-Toronto-New York-Tampa.  Baltimore, Toronto and New York are in the Wild Card mix again with Baltimore taking a spot - and they play Detroit or an AL West team in the play in game.  The Orioles need to win that game this time.  Using Zach Britton may help.

The Yankees came out of nowhere last year at the end after trading for those young studs and almost made the playoffs. They are way better than they were at the beginning of last year. We will battle Tampa for last place. a .500 club maybe slightly better, but we won't contend for the playoffs this year. Not with this team.

[25 Nuggets]

Just now, joeyc said:

Didn't they add Chris Sale as well. There's your 10-12 games easy.

No, he does not add 10-12 wins by himself.  A full year of Sale perhaps prevents 50 runs, while the loss of Ortiz means perhaps 50 less runs scored.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, joeyc said:

The Yankees came out of nowhere last year at the end after trading for those young studs and almost made the playoffs. They are way better than they were at the beginning of last year. We will battle Tampa for last place. a .500 club maybe slightly better, but we won't contend for the playoffs this year. Not with this team.

If Gary Sanchez hits 60 homers, then the Yankees may make the playoffs.   I wouldn't say they came out of nowhere.    They were a .500 team at the trade deadline, that finished 6 games over .500 while Sanchez was hitting 20 homers in 52 games.    They do have a stacked farm system that should put them in good shape over the next 5 years, but I don't think they will be better than the Orioles in 2017.

[FanSince88]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The big issue is, how does Tillman's replacement do?     Last year the O's won 22 of Tillman's 30 starts.     Is it far fetched to think a replacement might generate only 12 team wins?    Depends how bad the replacement does.

I doubt we win 22 out of 30 from Tillman this year.  My guess would be more like 18 or 19.  I hope he proves me wrong though and exceeds that number.  

[FlipTheBird]

46 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

I doubt we win 22 out of 30 from Tillman this year.  My guess would be more like 18 or 19.  I hope he proves me wrong though and exceeds that number.  

Team wins in Tillman starts in DD era...

2016: 22/30 (73%)
2015: 15/31 (48%)
2014: 23/34 (67%)
2013: 21/33 (63%)
2012: 10/15 (66%)

Call me crazy, but 2015 is is the outlier there. Not 2016.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Team wins in Tillman starts in DD era...

2016: 22/30 (73%)
2015: 15/31 (48%)
2014: 23/34 (67%)
2013: 21/33 (63%)
2012: 10/15 (66%)

Call me crazy, but 2015 is is the outlier there. Not 2016.

It's impressive.    I know pitchers don't totally control wins, but this guy wins.   

[FlipTheBird]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It's impressive.    I know pitchers don't totally control wins, but this guy wins.   

He has a habit of being involved in decisions, one way or another, that's for sure.

It does help that the O's have had a strong bullpen for the duration of the DD era. Tillman had ZERO (seriously, not a one) games last year where he left with the lead, but the team lost the game. A couple of times he left with the score tied and the pen faltered late, but they never turned a Tillman lead into an Orioles loss.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

He has a habit of being involved in decisions, one way or another, that's for sure.

It does help that the O's have had a strong bullpen for the duration of the DD era. Tillman had ZERO (seriously, not a one) games last year where he left with the lead, but the team lost the game. A couple of times he left with the score tied and the pen faltered late, but they never turned a Tillman lead into an Orioles loss.

Tillman also helps himself by getting deep enough in the game where our best relievers get used.

Blown saves for our starters last year:  Jimenez 3, Wright 3, Gallardo 2, Gausman 2, Wilson 1, Worley 1.    In 10 of those games, the lead was blown in the 6th/7th inning.   

[Il BuonO]

13 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

Man, that 2011 draft has really produced some talent. Sox got Betts in the fifth, Jackie Bradley, Jr. as a comp pick.

Orioles, of course, took Bundy No. 4 overall.

Some of the other names taken that year include Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Anthony Rendon, Javier Baez, George Springer, Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Kolten Wong, Joe Panik, Trevor Story, Blake Snell, Daniel Norris,  Billy Burns, Kevin Pillar and Michael Fulmer, among others.

Agree, a defining draft for many teams.