Amazing! One wrong move costs Buck

[eddie83]

Orioles had a 99% win probability going into the 7th, in the 9th it was 96%. 

[LA2]

44 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not if you have better choices.  Not when Buck leaves Nuno in with the bases loaded.  So Buck brings in Nuno to face lefty Gardener and maybe Headley.   But with two on why Holiday?  Go to Givens there.

I have this creepy feeling that Holliday is going to victimize us repeatedly over the next two years despite already being 37 and regardless of who's pitching. So far in his career against the pitchers currently on the O's active staff, he's 12 for 39 with a homer and *14* walks. Add in Tillman and Britton, he's 15 for 46. His career righty/lefty splits are not significant.

[bobmc]

11 minutes ago, LA2 said:

I have this creepy feeling that Holliday is going to victimize us repeatedly over the next two years despite already being 37 and regardless of who's pitching. So far in his career against the pitchers currently on the O's active staff, he's 12 for 39 with a homer and *14* walks. Add in Tillman and Britton, he's 15 for 46. His career righty/lefty splits are not significant.

That - he's one scary dude up there.

[bobmc]

16 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Orioles had a 99% win probability going into the 7th, in the 9th it was 96%. 

If it were 100%, would they not have lost?  

[OFFNY]

22 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

 

The Orioles had a 99% win probability going into the 7th, in the 9th it was 96%. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, bobmc said:

 

If it were 100%, would they not have lost? )  

 

o

 

If rain had started pouring down at either of those points (and continued coming down, making the field unplayable for the rest of the evening), then yes, the Orioles would have won the game, and the baseball reference box score would have labeled it accordingly.

 

o

[LA2]

17 minutes ago, bobmc said:

That - he's one scary dude up there.

Scarier in various ways than Raul Ibanez--and set to bag more Oiseaux than Mookie Betts.

[LA2]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

And puts the O's in a bad, bad situation.  Buck's use of Nuno  comes back to bite him and the team.

Gausman did his job.   Limited the surging Yankees to 4 runs in their own ball park over 6 innings.  106 pitches.   He starts the 7th and allows an infield hit to Romine.  Seemed pretty harmless up 11-4.  

Buck has his foot on the Yankees jugular.   He has three inning to go.  He has Given, O'Day and Brach ready.   The game should be well in hand.  But Buck gives the Yankee an opening.   He doesn't go to Givens.  He calls on Nuno.   The top of the order is coming up and Buck goes to his third best choice.   Not Givens, Not Hart but Nuno.   Lefty Gardner.  Switch hitting Headly. Righty Holiday and lefty Ellsbury.     Their is some reason to call in a lefty pitcher.   But why Nuno instead of Hart?  So Nuno gets Gardner. One down.   Headley doubles.  Nuno walks Holiday and they lefty Ellsbury hits a great slam vs lefty Nuno.   It a hard lessen that Nuno is not up to facing the Yankees in Yankee Stadium.    Now its 11-8.

I can't blame Buck for going the Givens, O'Day and Brach.  Brach had not allowed a run this year before last night.   Bad night for him.  

But Buck faltered for a second. He underestimated the surging Yankees by going to Nuno instead of Givens or Hart.   

Now the O's are behind the 8 ball.   Ubaldo facing a surging Yankee team.   Probably not good.  Brach threw 30 pitches in one inning.  He should probably not be used today but who know what Buck will do.  O'Day is probably only good for one inning.  Givens is available having only thrown 6 pitches.

The O's went almost a month without Tillman and 12 days without Britton without really missing them.   But vs the Yankees in Yankee Stadium their loss showed up. An it will haunt them for the reminder of the road trip though New York and Boston. What if Buck had stuck with his best.  Givens or Hart instead of Nuno.

Buck is a great manager.  I guess the amazing thing to me is how fast things can turn on one poor (in hindsight) decision.

 

Warren did for the Ys today what Buck expected yesterday from Nuno.

[Can_of_corn]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

And puts the O's in a bad, bad situation.  Buck's use of Nuno  comes back to bite him and the team.

Gausman did his job.   Limited the surging Yankees to 4 runs in their own ball park over 6 innings.  106 pitches.   He starts the 7th and allows an infield hit to Romine.  Seemed pretty harmless up 11-4.  

Buck has his foot on the Yankees jugular.   He has three inning to go.  He has Given, O'Day and Brach ready.   The game should be well in hand.  But Buck gives the Yankee an opening.   He doesn't go to Givens.  He calls on Nuno.   The top of the order is coming up and Buck goes to his third best choice.   Not Givens, Not Hart but Nuno.   Lefty Gardner.  Switch hitting Headly. Righty Holiday and lefty Ellsbury.     Their is some reason to call in a lefty pitcher.   But why Nuno instead of Hart?  So Nuno gets Gardner. One down.   Headley doubles.  Nuno walks Holiday and they lefty Ellsbury hits a great slam vs lefty Nuno.   It a hard lessen that Nuno is not up to facing the Yankees in Yankee Stadium.    Now its 11-8.

I can't blame Buck for going the Givens, O'Day and Brach.  Brach had not allowed a run this year before last night.   Bad night for him.  

But Buck faltered for a second. He underestimated the surging Yankees by going to Nuno instead of Givens or Hart.   

Now the O's are behind the 8 ball.   Ubaldo facing a surging Yankee team.   Probably not good.  Brach threw 30 pitches in one inning.  He should probably not be used today but who know what Buck will do.  O'Day is probably only good for one inning.  Givens is available having only thrown 6 pitches.

The O's went almost a month without Tillman and 12 days without Britton without really missing them.   But vs the Yankees in Yankee Stadium their loss showed up. An it will haunt them for the reminder of the road trip though New York and Boston. What if Buck had stuck with his best.  Givens or Hart instead of Nuno.

Buck is a great manager.  I guess the amazing thing to me is how fast things can turn on one poor (in hindsight) decision.

 

I'm not sure how sending Gausman back out in the seventh doesn't count as a wrong move.

To me it was pretty indefensible when it happened.

[Tx Oriole]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

And puts the O's in a bad, bad situation.  Buck's use of Nuno  comes back to bite him and the team.

Gausman did his job.   Limited the surging Yankees to 4 runs in their own ball park over 6 innings.  106 pitches.   He starts the 7th and allows an infield hit to Romine.  Seemed pretty harmless up 11-4.  

Buck has his foot on the Yankees jugular.   He has three inning to go.  He has Given, O'Day and Brach ready.   The game should be well in hand.  But Buck gives the Yankee an opening.   He doesn't go to Givens.  He calls on Nuno.   The top of the order is coming up and Buck goes to his third best choice.   Not Givens, Not Hart but Nuno.   Lefty Gardner.  Switch hitting Headly. Righty Holiday and lefty Ellsbury.     Their is some reason to call in a lefty pitcher.   But why Nuno instead of Hart?  So Nuno gets Gardner. One down.   Headley doubles.  Nuno walks Holiday and they lefty Ellsbury hits a great slam vs lefty Nuno.   It a hard lessen that Nuno is not up to facing the Yankees in Yankee Stadium.    Now its 11-8.

I can't blame Buck for going the Givens, O'Day and Brach.  Brach had not allowed a run this year before last night.   Bad night for him.  

But Buck faltered for a second. He underestimated the surging Yankees by going to Nuno instead of Givens or Hart.   

Now the O's are behind the 8 ball.   Ubaldo facing a surging Yankee team.   Probably not good.  Brach threw 30 pitches in one inning.  He should probably not be used today but who know what Buck will do.  O'Day is probably only good for one inning.  Givens is available having only thrown 6 pitches.

The O's went almost a month without Tillman and 12 days without Britton without really missing them.   But vs the Yankees in Yankee Stadium their loss showed up. An it will haunt them for the reminder of the road trip though New York and Boston. What if Buck had stuck with his best.  Givens or Hart instead of Nuno.

Buck is a great manager.  I guess the amazing thing to me is how fast things can turn on one poor (in hindsight) decision.

 

Yes things can turnout sour. 

[eddie83]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not sure how sending Gausman back out in the seventh doesn't count as a wrong move.

To me it was pretty indefensible when it happened.

Weak RH hitter. Got on via a swinging bunt. Was going to be his last hitter more than likely. Trying to limit Nuno. Nuno came in with one runner on base up 7. That runner should not have impacted how he pitched. Stay out of the big inning. Not complicated. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Weak RH hitter. Got on via a swinging bunt. Was going to be his last hitter more than likely. Trying to limit Nuno. Nuno came in with one runner on base up 7. That runner should not have impacted how he pitched. Stay out of the big inning. Not complicated. 

Starting pitcher who was already laboring and over 100 pitches.

Mediocre relief pitcher, not the sort you want to bring in with a runner on.

I'd like to see the numbers for relief pitchers coming in to start an innings as opposed to mid-inning with one or more runners on.

[eddie83]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Starting pitcher who was already laboring and over 100 pitches.

Mediocre relief pitcher, not the sort you want to bring in with a runner on.

I'd like to see the numbers for relief pitchers coming in to start an innings as opposed to mid-inning with one or more runners on.

I get all this but it was a baserunner on 1st with a 7 run lead. If Nuno can't handle that scenario he doesn't belong. Just assume that runner has scored and get the batters.  

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I get all this but it was a baserunner on 1st with a 7 run lead. If Nuno can't handle that scenario he doesn't belong. Just assume that runner has scored and get the batters.  

I'm not saying that leaving him in was the "one wrong move".  Just that it was a wrong move.

[El Gordo]

7 R lead, No problem using Gausman for one righty/righty matchup before going to your lefty long man. If your lefty long man can't give you 2-3 innings to save your pen with a 7 R lead then he isn't doing his job. Maybe he gives up one or two but not 7. Then bringing in your set up guy and closer makes absolute sense with a 3 R lead. They just didn't do their job.

[FlipTheBird]

14 hours ago, wildcard said:

Not if you have better choices.  Not when Buck leaves Nuno in with the bases loaded.  So Buck brings in Nuno to face lefty Gardener and maybe Headley.   But with two on why Holiday?  Go to Givens there.

All of this aside, Brach still blew the save. It was a communal failure on all levels. No one did their job. No one.

More than anything else, this game should have reminded everyone that NO ONE is Zach Britton. No one. He's the best relief pitcher in baseball, and irreplaceable.