Collapse of the Rotation By the Numbers

[TonySoprano]

May 9th, the Orioles were a season high 22-10, riding a season high winning steak.  Since then, the Orioles are 12-25. (Yeah, I'm counting a 11-0 deficit in the 5th tonight as a loss, deal with it).  The starters are 8-20 with 8 ND in that span.  Their numbers:

May 10-June 19
Bundy 8 GS 27ER, 46.1 IP, 5.24 ERA
Miley 8 GS 26ER, 39.2 IP, 5.90 ERA
Gausman 7 GS 27ER, 37.0 IP, 6.57 ERA
Jimenez 3 GS 13ER, 16.0 IP, 7.31 ERA
Tillman 7 GS 32ER, 30.2 IP, 9.39 ERA
Asher 4 GS 19ER, 17.1 IP, 9.87 ERA
totals 37 GS, 144ER, 187 IP, 6.93 ERA

The Orioles do not have a single starter with an ERA below 5.0 for the past 6 weeks.  Using the MLB standard definition of a QS as 6 IP with 3 ER or fewer, the rotation has supplied only 10 of those in the past 35 games. 

Tomorrow, I'm going to the pre-game Media Night and Duquette will be there.  I expect an interesting Q&A session with the fans about the last month and a half, although more punches will be pulled than you find on sports radio.  What would you ask him?
 

 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

Time to start the fire sale.  This is a last place team.  The badness of this team is only masked by the good start they had.

[webbrick2010]

Most organization have a better rotation among their minor league teams

I'm glad I had nothing to do with spending 170 million dollars on this roster.

[webbrick2010]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Time to start the fire sale.  This is a last place team.  The badness of this team is only masked by the good start they had.

It really feels like the worst stretch since 1988 or maybe that Trembley team that endured the double header massacre

[Dr. Unk]

10 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Time to start the fire sale.  This is a last place team.  The badness of this team is only masked by the good start they had.

Just what I was going to post.  I have been hesitant, but I think it's time to try to build up for the future.  A lot of tough decisions though.

[OriolesMagic83]

I'm just doubting that Duquette is interested in selling.  I don't think he will care what the O's organization looks like a day after he leaves. 

[sportsfan8703]

We still have 5-6 weeks till the trade deadline.  The SP has been terrible.  We're getting blown out a ton this year.  For the people saying fire sale who can we even trade?

Not trade-able,

• Davis, Trumbo, Tillman, Kim, Ubaldo, Hardy

Maybe trade-able but won't bring you much,

• O'day, Miley, Smith

Actual trade chips,

• Castillo, Brach, 

Would have to be full on fire sale,

• Gausman, Givens, Schoop, Machado, Jones, Britton

Realistically we might deal Miley, Smith, Castillo and Brach.  Is that even worth it considering that we can't trade Davis, Trumbo and O'day.  Britton is hurt and the rest would be a complete firesale.  I see us letting all this money come of the books and then trying to revamp the rotation in the offseason and make another run at it next year.  

Just with this SP it's going to be hard for us to win 75 games.  

 

[O's84]

I would have laughed you out of the room if you told me they were going to be that bad.  Sure, I knew there was going to be regression but this isn't just regression, it's a complete and utter collapse.

[OriolesMagic83]

I would definitely try to trade Trumbo.  Mancini is better and obviously a lot cheaper.  It's true our best trade chips have underperformed a lot.  If Britton comes back healthy, the O's should try to trade him.  I can't see why a rebuilding club needs a $15 mill closer.  I think Miley and Smith might bring back something decent. 

[TonySoprano]

By comparison (which I should have included in the OP)

Apr 3-May 9
Bundy 7 GS 11ER, 45.2 IP, 2.17 ERA
Miley 6 GS 8ER, 31.2 IP, 2.27 ERA
Gausman 8 GS 28ER, 38 IP, 6.63 ERA
Jimenez 6 GS 23ER, 30.2 IP, 6.75 ERA
Tillman 1 GS 0ER, 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA
Asher 2 GS 4ER, 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA
Aquino 1 GS 2ER, 6.0 IP, 3.00 ERA
Wilson 1 GS 3ER, 6.0 IP, 4.50 ERA
totals 32 GS, 79ER, 175 IP, 4.06 ERA


The starters were 12-7 with 13 ND and had 16 QS led by Bundy with 7.  He has 11 total for the season or 42% of the team total.  In about the same number of innings in both splits, Bundy's ER are 2.5X what they were the first month-plus.  We were already in deep trouble, but Bundy's struggles of late give us bigger worries.  Miley has also come back to earth after his first 6 GS.  As has been noted, Gausman has been a huge disappointment when the Orioles were winning and also during this downhill slide.  If Tillman's not pitching hurt then color me very surprised.  I don't think anyone sees Jimenez' last start as an omen for future success.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

33 minutes ago, Dr. Unk said:

Just what I was going to post.  I have been hesitant, but I think it's time to try to build up for the future.  A lot of tough decisions though.

This is what I would do too.  Coming into today's game the Orioles were one game out of the second wildcard spot.  As long as the Orioles are within striking distance of the wildcard, I don't think the front office is going to rebuild.

The problem with the second wildcard spot is there are teams that could sneak into the playoffs, but are in no way a legit pennant contender.  The Orioles are one of these teams.  Barring a miraculous turnaround by the pitching staff, there is no way this team can seriously be considered to win a pennant. 

Start rebuilding now and perhaps in a few years you can have a pennant winner. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Roy Firestone said:

Why are Kim , Tillman, or Ubaldo,  untradeabe?

Kim- 6.57 OPS, Platoon LF, below average defender.  Owed 3 million

Tillman- 8.07 ERA.  Owed 6 million

Ubaldo- 6.25 ERA. Owed 7.5 million

So not only are these guys some of the worst players in baseball, but they're owed millions of dollars.  

[TonySoprano]

10 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Why are Kim , Tillman, or Ubaldo,  untradeabe?

Respectfully, teams that are trading at this point are looking to upgrade and neither Tillman or Ubaldo represent that.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but both are free agents after the season, so neither offer much value.  Perhaps someone takes a flier on Tillman to see if he can return to form. but I don't find that remotely possible this year.

The 2017 Rotation ERA to date is 5.54, 29th in all of MLB.  Last season it was 4.72, good for 24th, and 4.53 (25th) in 2015.  To make a short story long, a lousy rotation the last two years has only gotten worse this year.

[Uli2001]

38 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

By comparison (which I should have included in the OP)

Apr 3-May 9
Bundy 7 GS 11ER, 45.2 IP, 2.17 ERA
Miley 6 GS 8ER, 31.2 IP, 2.27 ERA
Gausman 8 GS 28ER, 38 IP, 6.63 ERA
Jimenez 6 GS 23ER, 30.2 IP, 6.75 ERA
Tillman 1 GS 0ER, 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA
Asher 2 GS 4ER, 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA
Aquino 1 GS 2ER, 6.0 IP, 3.00 ERA
Wilson 1 GS 3ER, 6.0 IP, 4.50 ERA
totals 32 GS, 79ER, 175 IP, 4.06 ERA


The starters were 12-7 with 13 ND and had 16 QS led by Bundy with 7.  He has 11 total for the season or 42% of the team total.  In about the same number of innings in both splits, Bundy's ER are 2.5X what they were the first month-plus.  We were already in deep trouble, but Bundy's struggles of late give us bigger worries.  Miley has also come back to earth after his first 6 GS.  As has been noted, Gausman has been a huge disappointment when the Orioles were winning and also during this downhill slide.  If Tillman's not pitching hurt then color me very surprised.  I don't think anyone sees Jimenez' last start as an omen for future success.

Interesting information. So Gausman actually IMPROVED his ERA. Jimenez has been the same. The collapse has been due to Miley and Bundy suddenly forgetting how to pitch, and the horrendous return of Tillman to the rotation. That's it. Also, the offense has been very inconsistent lately.

[TonySoprano]

3 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

Interesting information. So Gausman actually IMPROVED his ERA. Jimenez has been the same. The collapse has been due to Miley and Bundy suddenly forgetting how to pitch, and the horrendous return of Tillman to the rotation. That's it. Also, the offense has been very inconsistent lately.

Gausman's "improvement" is 0.06 ERA (6.57 v 6.63), 1 less ER in 1 less IP.  He has 2 QS in 15 GS.  If you want to look for improvement in his game, his IP per start is up slightly, but that's a very generous observation.  The rest of your analysis about the pitching is correct.