Rosenthal: Orioles Uequivocally Plan to be Buyers

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does even the most optimistic fan think this team can win multiple playoff series?

At the moment, I'd say it seems highly unlikely.    But I'd still rather make that judgment a month from now.     

[MDK02]

For the record, I want to be a seller. It's time to rebuild and replenish the farm system. That being said, no way PA is going to be selling. We're only somehow 1 game out of a WC spot and 5 back of the division which isn't out of reach but this team has no chance at the division. I fully expect DD and company to deplete the farm system more and pick up a nonfactor player(s) at the deadline. This is an unfortunate reality. 

[FlipTheBird]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've never been upset about it.  He wasn't going to do it here.

The three people commenting in this thread at the moment are in the great minority, there.

[pastorfan]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let's say we're only a game or two out, but still playing just below .500 baseball -- in other words, nothing changes from right now.   That's when you have a tough decision.   I'd probably advocate being a seller in that situation, on the theory that even if the team has a chance to get into the playoffs because of the mediocrity of the other wild card contenders, it's simply not a team that has a decent chance of making a significant postseason run.    But, there are a lot of nuances to the situation, and rather than trying to anticipate them all now, I'd just wait 30 days and see what the exact situation is.    

The starting pitching is woeful. There simply is no chance with such starting pitching.....but I think you need to field offers and trade guys in close proximity. I say this because if you trade off a piece now, then it becomes obvious you are sellers and it may hurt your bargaining with other teams. Best case scenario, Zach returns better than ever and Manny gets red-hot. Of course, then we would probably be winning just enough to keep them from trading.

[FlipTheBird]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That wasn't my question.

I don't know, I don't talk to those folks a lot. But I'd imagine there are plenty of fans holding on to hope that the O's can do that.

[pastorfan]

1 minute ago, MDK02 said:

For the record, I want to be a seller. It's time to rebuild and replenish the farm system. That being said, no way PA is going to be selling. We're only somehow 1 game out of a WC spot and 5 back of the division which isn't out of reach but this team has no chance at the division. I fully expect DD and company to deplete the farm system more and pick up a nonfactor player(s) at the deadline. This is an unfortunate reality. 

IF done rightly, we could retool quickly. Something like 60 mm off the books after this year. If you can't resign Manny you get the best deal for him and Zach in offseason. That could free up almost 90 mm. Get two very good starting pitchers and an infielder who can hit and make a run. Instead they will surely screw it up and then way overpay Adam because he is such a "good guy."  The reality is that the Yanks (apparently have arrived a year earlier than I thought) and Red Sox will dominate the east for the next 3-4 years.

[Spy Fox]

I'm not surprised that's their current perspective, but I hope unequivocal becomes a bit more equivocal if we play as badly over the next 30 days as we have over the past 30 days.

[Lucky_13]

I hope this is just Duquette waiting for the market to develop before deciding. If it were me I would be waiting to see if teams get desperate and it become's a seller's market. I think if the Orioles play their card close and then dangle britton and brach at the last second they could get some solid players. 

[spiritof66]

If some of the turnarounds (Macahdo, Gausman, Tillman, I guess you can add Bundy) occur, and the returns of Britton and O'Day are successful, and we are in sniffing distance of a WC spot as the deadline nears, I wouldn't be too upset if the Orioles stood pat and hoped for an improbable playoff run. I'm sure stranger things have happened -- don't ask me for examples, though.

But buyers, really? Buying veteran starting pitching, which is what I would expect to see? There are so few assets with trade value in our MiL that it would be nuts to give up any of those scarce assets for whatever help they would provide in what would probably be Angelos' Last Stand. I just have to take Duquette's comments as meaningless GMbabble.

[Just Regular]

I take this report more at face value than posturing, and think those hoping for a sell are wishcasting.

For better or worse, we are in on this core, and we are not far from the Feldman calendar date.  Moreover, we desperately need Feldman type rotation fodder, and a few extra starts of "anyone but who we've been pitching lately" could be significant in the messy scrum to ~85 wins and a road date at Fenway or Yankee Stadium in early October.

Fangraphs surveyed the market yesterday and identified nine teams likely open to selling now.  Their Feldmans:

OAK - Gray is too good for us

MIA - Volquez feels like our style, Koehler has one arb year to go

PIT - Cole is too good, Nova is too new, everyone else is too young

SF - Cueto has some poison pills for his acquirer, might give us a chance to shock the world.  Moore probably more our type.

ATL - Dickey and Colon could easily be moved aside

CWS - Big Game James is back.  Derek Holland is making good on his make good contract and might have a little more value than the White Sox figured he would.

CIN - their Feldman is, literally, Scott Feldman.  He has gravitas in our clubhouse.

SD - Richard and Chacin are on twin 1 year, $1.75M contracts so the price couldn't be any more nice.

PHI - Hellickson should have virtually zero acquisition cost talent wise as the Phillies foolishly QO'd him, as long as his acquirer has the payroll room to fit.

Of all the teams in the scrum, the Orioles probably have the intensest short term need, and the expiring Manny window.  It's fluff too, but as beaten down as they've been the past month, an early move probably helps the team's psyche.  I believe Duquette will execute something in the next week or two if he can, just as in past offseasons he's snagged Trumbo early to avoid a Davis barrel (not that we avoided it) and Castillo early to avoid a Wieters one.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

This is an important fact when considering the job Duquette has done...and Rosenthal points it out. I wish others could acknowledge this:

The Orioles — outmanned, outspent but rarely outmaneuvered — have won the most games in the American League since the start of the 2012 season.

It was an old day yesterday but it's a new day now.

 

[jamalshw]

The Orioles should be in trade-market limbo for the next few weeks. Come mid-July, If we are in the same spot (or worse), you sell or stand pat. A few back of a wildcard spot, but no progress in Gausman or Tillman means doom. Even if Bundy bounces back, he's already less than 20 innings from the number he threw last year. How long will he last? Even if the O's don't shut him down, he'll decline in effectiveness again as he tires.

That all said, I don't see an issue waiting until the winter. I wouldn't sell Machado at the deadline unless he got red hot in the next few weeks. You cannot deal Britton unless he comes back and dominants for a couple weeks. Trumbo has no value. Kim or Smith? Sure, you can move them, but they're not getting you anything impactful. Brach may be the lone exception given setup men typically have more value at the deadline. 

 

[O's are Legends]

2 hours ago, MDK02 said:

For the record, I want to be a seller. It's time to rebuild and replenish the farm system. That being said, no way PA is going to be selling. We're only somehow 1 game out of a WC spot and 5 back of the division which isn't out of reach but this team has no chance at the division. I fully expect DD and company to deplete the farm system more and pick up a nonfactor player(s) at the deadline. This is an unfortunate reality. 

I'm already anticipating Parra part 2 and 3 to occur. Should have traded Chen, O'Day, Davis in 2015, didn't happen. This year should be sellers again; unless they are completely out of it probably won't happen either.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, O's are Legends said:

I'm already anticipating Parra part 2 and 3 to occur. Should have traded Chen, O'Day, Davis in 2015, didn't happen. This year should be sellers again; unless they are completely out of it probably won't happen either.

I'm not sure Chen would have brought you back much more than the first round pick they got when he walked.

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, Going Underground said:

It is just locker room talk.

And it's by a guy who is known to hate Angelos.

If he can write an article with some innuendo (i.e. "it's obvious the Orioles should sell but rumor has it Angelos wants them to be buyers"), he will write that article based on the thinnest whisp of talk from a one of his "sources".

I'm sticking by what I wrote the day after the Yankee series.   We were beginning a 23 game stretch vs teams that were under .500 or just barely above it, including teams that were in tight contention for us for the wild card spots.   That stretch ends July 5.

I said if we went 14-9 or better...  stay the course.   That would put us a decent bit over .500 and probably in the 2nd wild card spot.   Britton would be close to coming back.   We would be contenders, for better or worse.

I said if we went 11-10 or worse... it was time to start thinking about selling.   We would be .500 or worse and trailing a lot of teams for the wild card, and we would have just played a 23 game stretch vs mediocre competition and not showed we could make much noise.

The middle ground was 12-11 or 13-10.   A tough call.   I said in that case I would look at subjective indicators.   Were guys like Gausman and Manny turning around their seasons in ways we would hope?   Have we found someone from the Norfolk shuttle to stabilize the #5 starter and/or long relief spots.   Is it looking like Britton will be back really soon?   Etc.

Well, so far we are 3-5.   I'm going to stick it out and wait until July 5 to evaluate, like I said I would.   But so far it's not looking pretty.

I also think that you don't have to create a dichotomy between every deal being "buying" or "selling" and judge the deals accordingly, or create some sort of narrative that you have to sell every possible asset or you are somehow faililng.    If we trade Britton for Joe Ross, I guess that is a "selling" deal because we are trading a veteran star reliever for a young, somewhat unproven starting pitcher.   But that deal might actually IMPROVE the 2017 Orioles.   If we trade Manny for Bregman and two more top prospects, obviously that's a sell, but how much of a dropoff would it be to put Bregman (.725 OPS this year) in for Manny (.706 this year) into the lineup?