Rosenthal: Orioles Uequivocally Plan to be Buyers

[OriolesMagic83]

Are there some advanced pitching metrics I don't know about that make our pitching look good?  I feel like Dan must be watching another team.  The one I'm watching only wins when the all or nothing batters hit a bunch of home runs.  Sorry, an overworked Bundy, a declining Miley (to his career norm), and a journeyman Asher isn't a playoff rotation.  But of course Tillman and Gausman are going to turn it around.  I'll be sick if the O's even give up one prospect for this team's "playoff" run.

[weams]

7 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Are there some advanced pitching metrics I don't know about that make our pitching look good?  I feel like Dan must be watching another team.  The one I'm watching only wins when the all or nothing batters hit a bunch of home runs.  Sorry, an overworked Bundy, a declining Miley (to his career norm), and a journeyman Asher isn't a playoff rotation.  But of course Tillman and Gausman are going to turn it around.  I'll be sick if the O's even give up one prospect for this team's "playoff" run.

If they stay withing a game of the WC, I suspect they will give up three!

[Frobby]

I think the issue is simple: either Gausman and Tillman will revert to being decent, or we're dead in the water.   

[Enjoy Terror]

Just for giggles-- Yankees vs Oriole players on 40-man rosters (I did this maybe 2 months ago so it's a little dated):

Yankees (50 on 40-man, 38 on 25-man)

(1) J. Montgomery-NYY 4'14
(1) J. Holder-NYY 6'14
(1) M. Tanaka-NYY JAP'14
(9) A. Judge-NYY 1'13
(3) G. Bird-NYY 5'11
(1) L. Severino-NYY DOM'11
(1) A. Warren-NYY 4'09
(1) B. Mitchell-NYY 16'09
(2) K. Higashioka-NYY 7'08
(2) A. Romine-NYY 2'07
(1) D. Betances-NYY 8'06
(7) B. Gardner-NYY 3'05
(1) T. Clippard-NYY 9'03
(1) N. Goody-NYY 6'12
(1) Z. McAllister-NYY 3'06
(8) A. Jackson-NYY 8'05
(9) A. Almonte-NYY DOM'05
(1) C. Whitley-NYY 15'10
(1) I. Kennedy-NYY 1'06
(1) P. Hughes-NYY 1'04
(1) T. Kahnle-NYY 5'10
(1) D. Robertson-NYY 17'06
(7) M. Cabrera-NYY DOM'01
(1) S. Greene-NYY 15'09
(1) J. Pazos-NYY 13'12
(4) R. Cano-NYY DOM'01
(1) A. Vizcaino-NYY DOM'07
(1) Jo. Ramirez-NYY DOM'07
(7) A. Garcia-NYY CUB'12
(1) D. Phelps-NYY 14'08
(2) F. Cervelli-NYY VEN'03
(1) I. Nova-NYY DOM'04
(5) R. Segedin-NYY 3'10
(2) L. Torrens-NYY VEN'12
(1) M. Dunn-NYY 33'04
(5) E. Nunez-NYY DOM'04
(1) G. Kontos-NYY 5'06
(1) M. Melancon-NYY 9'06
(3) T. Austin-NYY 13'10
(2) G. Sanchez-NYY DOM'09
(1) R. Davis-NYY 14'11
(4) R. Refsnyder-NYY 5'12
(9) M. Williams-NYY 4'10
(1) D. Enns-NYY 19'12
(1) G. Gallegos-NYY MEX'11
(5) M. Andujar-NYY DOM'11
(6) J. Mateo-NYY DOM'12
(8) B. Gamel-NYY 10'10
(2) J. Murphy-NYY 2'09
(7) P. O'Brien-NYY 2'12

Orioles (31 on 40-man, 24 on 25-man):

(7) H. Kim-BAL KOR'15
(3) T. Mancini-BAL 8'13
(1) S. Crichton-BAL 23'13
(1) D. Hart-BAL 27'13
(1) K. Gausman-BAL 1'12
(1) D. Bundy-BAL 1'11
(1) T. Wilson-BAL 10'11
(5) M. Machado-BAL 1'10
(1) M. Givens-BAL 2'09
(2) Ca. Joseph-BAL 7'08
(4) J. Schoop-BAL NED'08
(1) E. Rodriguez-BAL VEN'10
(1) A. Miranda-BAL CUB'15
(1) J. Johnson-BAL 5'01
(9) N. Markakis-BAL 1'03
(1) W. Chen-BAL TAI'12
(2) M. Wieters-BAL 1'07
(7) J. Werth-BAL 1'97
(1) O. Drake-BAL 43'08
(1) Z. Davies-BAL 26'11
(1) T. Adleman-BAL 24'10
(1) J. Arrieta-BAL 5'07
(1) K. Uehara-BAL JAP'09
(7) T. Kelly-BAL 13'09
(1) Z. Britton-BAL 3'06
(1) M. Wright-BAL 3'11
(1) S. Brault-BAL 11'13
(1) E. Gamboa-BAL 21'08
(1) P. Bridwell-BAL 9'10
(1) J. Hader-BAL 19'12
(1) A. Tolliver-BAL 5'09

[25 Nuggets]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think the issue is simple: either Gausman and Tillman will revert to being decent, or we're dead in the water.   

Sounds about right.  I'd add Bundy to that list now.

[sportsfan8703]

Let's assume that BOS/NYY, Clev, and Hou are the division winners.  With BOS/NYY as the WC.  That means that we're competing with basically the rest of the AL minus a few teams.  All our significantly flawed.  

I'm not going to say that we should be buyers.  We'll just have to see where we are in 5 weeks.  This year probably isn't the best to be sellers because the whole NL is basically set and KC is going to flood the market if they have a firesale.   

[WEAVERMAN]

On 6/20/2017 at 8:52 AM, interloper said:

Should surprise no one. Buck and Dan are here for one more year.

How do know that they will not be renewed or don't want to be renewed?   Buck should and will be renewed as the Manager or GM, imo.  

And where does Duquette plan to go?  There are only 30 of these jobs.  

My guess is PGA wants to renew both of them.

[WEAVERMAN]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think the issue is simple: either Gausman and Tillman will revert to being decent, or we're dead in the water.   

Exactly right.

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/its-time-for-the-orioles-to-rebuild/

[spiritof66]

20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Everything they did (unlike the Red Sox) was fully within the rules.  Plenty of teams whose revenues do not dwarf the O's outspend them in the international market.  It is more about the O's than it is the Yankees.

That's all true (if by your last sentence you mean that the Orioles have taken an extreme approach on how little they spend on Latin America player development). I was trying to point out that, while the NYYs have drafted and/or developed a few young, inexpensive major leaguers, their ability to spend more than anyone else, and their decision to spend a lot on a variety of sources for talent, have contributed a lot to the current team's success.

[Tryptamine]

It's better not to analyze the Yankees because right now as they may be the greatest statistical anomaly I've ever seen in any sport. I mean literaly 75% of the roster is having the best year of their career or a resurgence where they've gone back in time 5 years to when they were relevant. I'm not sure there's a single hitter for them  performing at or below projection. While on the other hand you have the Cubs who have one or two guys exceeding projections and that's it.

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It's better not to analyze the Yankees because right now as they may be the greatest statistical anomaly I've ever seen in any sport. I mean literaly 75% of the roster is having the best year of their career or a resurgence where they've gone back in time 5 years to when they were relevant. I'm not sure there's a single hitter for them  performing at or below projection. While on the other hand you have the Cubs who have one or two guys exceeding projections and that's it.

Chris Carter, Austin Romine, and Chase Headley are all having the worst seasons of their careers, as are Tanaka and Chapman on the pitching side.

[Tryptamine]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Chris Carter, Austin Romine, and Chase Headley are all having the worst seasons of their careers, as are Tanaka and Chapman on the pitching side.

I meant hitters. Look at guys like Starlin Castro who has never exceeded 2.8fWAR/117wRC+, but he's in line for 4.0fWAR/130wRC+, Matt Holliday with his highest wRC+ in since 2013, Gardner with the highest wRC+ of his career, Didi Gregorious the highest wRC+ of his career, Aaron Hicks far and away the highest wRC+ of his career, etc etc. Then you have two prospects in Sanchez and Judge who suddenly hit the majors and put up numbers there that dwarf any numbers they ever put up  in the years they spent at the minors. I find it very strange that such a large amount of guys on one team are all having these career years. Stadium, juiced ball, something else, I haven't a clue but it's definitely odd.

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I meant hitters. Look at guys like Starlin Castro who has never exceeded 2.8fWAR/117wRC+, but he's in line for 4.0fWAR/130wRC+, Matt Holliday with his highest wRC+ in since 2013, Gardner with the highest wRC+ of his career, Didi Gregorious the highest wRC+ of his career, Aaron Hicks far and away the highest wRC+ of his career, etc etc. Then you have two prospects in Sanchez and Judge who suddenly hit the majors and put up numbers there that dwarf any numbers they ever put up  in the years they spent at the minors. I find it very strange that such a large amount of guys on one team are all having these career years. Stadium, juiced ball, something else, I haven't a clue but it's definitely odd.

I guess. Gregorious, Hicks and Castro are both 27 so career years are hardly shocking. Matt Holliday is healthy for the first time since 2014 and it is a little surprising that he is back to his 2013-14 form at 37 years old, but he has severely changed his approach, check out his K and BB rates, interested to see whether that will last. Obviously Judge's emergence has been one of the biggest stories of baseball this year, but Sanchez was actually better last year than this year.

Hard to say anything is going on. And Carter and Headley turning into replacement level players and Romine's decline don't support your claim that nobody is performing below expectations.

[Moose Milligan]

Gardner is also having a sick year, too.

Sometimes it just clicks for a team.