Its decision time for the future

[crawjo]

6 hours ago, allquixotic said:

I would trade Bundy and Gausman for as many prospects as we can get in return, too. Their years with the Orioles, if successful, will be wasted if we have no other good pitchers on the staff to win games alongside them. And losing 3 out of every 5 games reliably is no way to run a ball club.

Trade them and maximize the prospect return. I expect us to need to cut nearly every failed prospect we have right now to make room for the guys we haul back from our fire sale ASAP.

You would be getting pennies on the dollar for Gausman right now. Bundy has four more years of team control after this season. I see him as a building block, not a trade chip. 

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

Gausman becomes my closer once Britton is traded. He gets to pitch one inning  at max velocity with a plus change. Not what fans wanted to see but I just don't see it with him as a starting pitcher. He just doesn't have the command.

Kevin had the command to go 8-6, 3.10. with 92 strikeouts in 93.2 innings and a 1.26 WHIP in the 2nd half last year.

The talent is in there.  Somehow the O's need to find a way to consistently  get it out.

[Sessh]

2 hours ago, 24fps said:

There is no half-assed in Binary World.  Only full-assed and no-assed.  I can't figure out which this is an argument for, but if the Orioles are going to throw out all business considerations for years just so that they can figure out what they have, I'm going to guess full-assed.

Well, I'm talking about the real world for the Orioles. You want to see full assed? Just wait and you'll see it because that's exactly what this organization is going to do instead. Rebuild and then see what you've got as the players get comfortable so you know what you have to build around. No one should be safe and saying you won't even listen to offers for some players is already shooting yourself in the foot. If someone wants to overpay for one of our guys, let them. I don't doubt someone would for Schoop.

As for the arguments with Gausman saying we don't want to trade him because he's going to be good for someone else, seems just a little bit selfish. You'd rather him stay here and stay on the seesaw instead of going somewhere else to realize his full potential? He's been here how many years now and still hasn't gotten any better? Someone will see his potential and offer up something for him and it just may be enough, too. You never know what some other team will offer. So, by going into a rebuild and declaring some of your guys with the most value are untouchable, you've already lost because you've significantly limited your options. You've GOT to at least listen and see what you hear. Everyone should be made available, but as I said, you want to see full assed? The Orioles will certainly oblige you before the year is over and beyond.

[Lucky_13]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Kevin had the command to go 8-6, 3.10. with 92 strikeouts in 93.2 innings and a 1.26 WHIP in the 2nd half last year.

The talent is in there.  Somehow the O's need to find a way to consistently  get it out.

There's the main problem and has been for awhile. 

[thatbearflies]

23 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

If you can get good return for him. Cant be afraid that he'd turn some great pitcher for another team as a reason not to trade him. Let's be sure to blame others instead of Kevin. It's time for Kevin to take the bull by the horns and pitch good. He's been around long enough to know how to pitch. IMO 

I agree. Also, let's not overstate the value of the Oriole's pitching development. Sometimes when we talk about Arrieta, we operate under the assumption that if we held onto him for just a few more years this is the pitcher we would have had. I am not so confident that the Orioles can develop top of the rotation superstars, even if the potential and all the ingredients are there. I think it speaks volumes (injury plagued players aside) that the Orioles really haven't developed any outstanding pitching prospects that paid huge dividends for the big league club in quite some time. Granted, Bundy might contradict this argument in time, and I hope Gausman gets the opportunity to do so as well, but I don't think there is good reason to put a lot of faith in our development system.

Let's even back away from pitching for the moment. Are we all confident with the approach our hitters have at the plate and the offensive philosophy that this team has adopted? Now, this argument, I admit, has a lot of holes in it because I think Mancini has shown good tendencies to go with the pitch, especially at two strikes so, this could be much more based on the individual. However, I am concerned that the organization is too concerned with one swing run generation than valuing singles hitters, doubles, steals, etc. I am not necessarily advocating adopting the NL style of play, but I think as you get deeper into the playoffs, you run into rotations that aren't as prone to giving up the long ball. Instead of feasting on someone's 4 and 5, suddenly you will be facing pitchers more concerned about the psychology of the batter and keeping away from power zones. I haven't done a ton of research behind it, but I once made a post about this team's playoff batting averages. Sure, it is possible that they all press and "choke" when in the playoffs, but it's also possible that they are facing a style of pitcher or a change in pitching approach that is stifling the way we approach hitting.

All these things make me concerned about even a potential rebuild. Has our organization learned from the mistakes? Even the fact that many of our hitters are flawed in the exact same way which allows pitchers to more easily navigate us. Is our front office concerned about this? Obviously, if you asked DD that question directly he would say yes and let's not pretend it is easy to construct a major league team, but the Orioles are an organization that I believe is capable of putting together a contender and a team that is dangerous on any given night, but is not a legitimate threat to win the World Series. I want to see more adaptability in this team and while that is not something that is on demand and done overnight, I'm willing to be patient to get to that point. 

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Well, I'm talking about the real world for the Orioles. You want to see full assed? Just wait and you'll see it because that's exactly what this organization is going to do instead. Rebuild and then see what you've got as the players get comfortable so you know what you have to build around. No one should be safe and saying you won't even listen to offers for some players is already shooting yourself in the foot. If someone wants to overpay for one of our guys, let them. I don't doubt someone would for Schoop.

As for the arguments with Gausman saying we don't want to trade him because he's going to be good for someone else, seems just a little bit selfish. You'd rather him stay here and stay on the seesaw instead of going somewhere else to realize his full potential? He's been here how many years now and still hasn't gotten any better? Someone will see his potential and offer up something for him and it just may be enough, too. You never know what some other team will offer. So, by going into a rebuild and declaring some of your guys with the most value are untouchable, you've already lost because you've significantly limited your options. You've GOT to at least listen and see what you hear. Everyone should be made available, but as I said, you want to see full assed? The Orioles will certainly oblige you before the year is over and beyond.

Yes, I am selfish.  I want to see Kevin win 20 games one year of the O's instead of teamX.  Get him a pitching coach that can get what is inside him to become reality.   It worked for Arrieta.  Adair and others didn't do him any favors.   The Cubs did.   Is time the O's found a coach that can help Kevn reach his potential.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, thatbearflies said:

I agree. Also, let's not overstate the value of the Oriole's pitching development. Sometimes when we talk about Arrieta, we operate under the assumption that if we held onto him for just a few more years this is the pitcher we would have had. I am not so confident that the Orioles can develop top of the rotation superstars, even if the potential and all the ingredients are there. I think it speaks volumes (injury plagued players aside) that the Orioles really haven't developed any outstanding pitching prospects that paid huge dividends for the big league club in quite some time. Granted, Bundy might contradict this argument in time, and I hope Gausman gets the opportunity to do so as well, but I don't think there is good reason to put a lot of faith in our development system.

Let's even back away from pitching for the moment. Are we all confident with the approach our hitters have at the plate and the offensive philosophy that this team has adopted? Now, this argument, I admit, has a lot of holes in it because I think Mancini has shown good tendencies to go with the pitch, especially at two strikes so, this could be much more based on the individual. However, I am concerned that the organization is too concerned with one swing run generation than valuing singles hitters, doubles, steals, etc. I am not necessarily advocating adopting the NL style of play, but I think as you get deeper into the playoffs, you run into rotations that aren't as prone to giving up the long ball. Instead of feasting on someone's 4 and 5, suddenly you will be facing pitchers more concerned about the psychology of the batter and keeping away from power zones. I haven't done a ton of research behind it, but I once made a post about this team's playoff batting averages. Sure, it is possible that they all press and "choke" when in the playoffs, but it's also possible that they are facing a style of pitcher or a change in pitching approach that is stifling the way we approach hitting.

All these things make me concerned about even a potential rebuild. Has our organization learned from the mistakes? Even the fact that many of our hitters are flawed in the exact same way which allows pitchers to more easily navigate us. Is our front office concerned about this? Obviously, if you asked DD that question directly he would say yes and let's not pretend it is easily to construct a major league team, but the Orioles are a organization that I believe is capable of putting together a contender and a team that is dangerous on any given night, but is not a legitimate threat to win the World Series. I want to see more adaptability in this team and while that is not something that is on demand and done overnight, I'm willing to be patient to get to that point. 

If the O's don't fix their starting pitching they won't have to worry about their hitting.  

Tillman did pretty well for years with the O's.  They didn't draft him but they developed him.

[TouchemAll]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

Its pretty obvious that without better starting pitching the O's are going nowhere.  Its also obvious that there is no starting pitching in the upper minors that is going to help the starting pitching. There are about 5 week before the trade deadline.  This time should be used to determine who can and should be signed long term and who should be traded to get starting pitching.

1) Britton - Should be back the first week on July.  If he prove healthy he should be traded if Boras is intent on follow his normal path on taking Britton to Free Agency.   His value should be high with two pennant races of value left for anyone that acquires him. Acquiring starting pitching should be the focus on any Britton trade.

2) Buck and Dan - O's ownership should determine if they are going to extend both managers in the next month.   Any long term negotiation with Manny or any other player will be made easier if it is known whether Buck and Dan will stay past 2018.

3) Manny - The O's should open serious negotiation with Manny's agent now.   The O's need to determine what kind on a contract will be required to sign him long term.   If there is a contract that the O's can afford they should go ahead and sign him now.   If not they should make him available for trade before the deadline. It will take a lot to acquire Manny so the O's need to determine if a deadline trade nets more value than an off season deal if he can't be signed by the O's.

4) Castillo -  The O's should determine in the next 5 weeks if they are going to extend him.  He can walk after the season ends.   Sisco is not controlling the running game at Norfolk.  He does not look like a starting catcher for that reason right now.   So it would be desirable to sign Castillo for two more years if possible.  If they can't he should be traded prior to the deadline.

5) Smith - Is hitting well and may help a contender.  If the O's can get a decent prospect for him he should be traded.  He is 34.  The O's have several up and coming outfielders in AA and A ball that could be in the majors next year.   Getting a prospect for Smith is more important than keeping him through this season or extending him.

 6) Kim - If he can bring back a good prospect trade him.

I would not trade Brach, Davis, Trumbo, O'Day or Jones now.   The above 6 items are more than enough to accomplish prior to the deadline. The same goes for extensions to Schoop or anyone else.   I would wait to see what the O's can acquire and what the impact is on the payroll before making other moves.

 

The O's will not be selling anybody it's not the owners style, and I would move Trumbo in a heart beat.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, TouchemAll said:

The O's will not be selling anybody it's not the owners style, and I would move Trumbo in a heart beat.

The O's are 13-27 since May 10th.  If the keep losing at this rate they will be more than 5 games out probably in the next 10 days.   Certainly by the All-Star break.   In the last 5 years they have not been in this situation.   

They may be buyers today but they will probably be sellers in the near future.

And the O's have been seller before.  In 2011 they sold Koji Uehara to the Ranger for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter at the trade deadline.

[TouchemAll]

Just now, wildcard said:

The O's are 13-27 since May 10th.  If the keep losing at this rate they will be more than 5 games out probably in the next 10 days.   Certainly by the All-Star break.   In the last 5 years they have not been in this situation.   

They may be buyers today but they will probably be seller in the near future.

And the O's have been seller before.  In 2011 they sold Koji Uehara to the Ranger for Chris Davis and tommy Hunter. 

Hey man I hope your right, but if I was a betting man no selling will take place till the off season. We shall see.

[maybenxtyr]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

Good concept but that in not the way teams are built.  They decide while players to build around and which players to trade.

I don't think you understand what I meant. Any player that another team wants should be available for the right price. We don't have any untouchable players, but they have some that they would prefer to keep. 

Smith, O'Day, and Jones brings back very little. Of they are moving players in a pure salary dump that's different. You can't rebuild by trading players with little value.

[tntoriole]

8 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

I agree with you. But there is a bug in the ointment. The owner probably won't allow DD to trade those two pitchers. I want to keep Manny. But if he wants some outlandish contract then bye Manny. I do wish ownership would realize just how bad this team is and do the right thing. Sell and not buy. Handcuff DD to a desk. Don't let him do anything stupid. 

Dan knows which way the ownership blows.  If ownership doesn't want to pull the plug on this year and go for a rebuild, then DD will try to compete by buying.  If the owner wants to let a rebuild go through, then I think Dan would be more than fine with that direction too.  I think Dan knows exactly where things stand in the organization and likely knows what needs to be done.  Now whether ownership is willing to support a rebuild this season is a different question altogether. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, tntoriole said:

Dan knows which way the ownership blows.  If ownership doesn't want to pull the plug on this year and go for a rebuild, then DD will try to compete by buying.  If the owner wants to let a rebuild go through, then I think Dan would be more than fine with that direction too.  I think Dan knows exactly where things stand in the organization and likely knows what needs to be done.  Now whether ownership is willing to support a rebuild this season is a different question altogether. 

Of course all of that doesn't mean that Dan wouldn't try and influence the overall decision.

[tntoriole]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Of course all of that doesn't mean that Dan wouldn't try and influence the overall decision.

True, but Potter has never struck me very much as being too influenced by his GMs if he has his own idea or his own player that he wants to keep.  But, the point I was making in responding was that I don't think it is a question of "don't let Dan be stupid."   as A. He is certainly not stupid.  and B. Even if he was, he has constraints from ownership as to which direction things go...sell or buy. 

[thezeroes]

23 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Smith, O'Day, and Jones brings back very little.

Adam Jones CAN NOT be traded without his consent.  He is a Five Ten Player.  JJ Hardy has a clause in his contract that automatically makes the "Option Contract" a valid 2018 contract for the team he is traded to.  Neither of these players will be in the mix in any deals.