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Have you given up on the Orioles being a playoff contender in 2017?


Frobby

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I wouldn't say I've given up, but realistically, I don't ever see this team as currently constructed winning a 7-game series with the starting rotation as currently constructed.

That said, I didn't see the Ravens winning any games in the playoffs in 2012 either, for similar reasons.

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I don't know how you define "giving up" but I'm willing to concede that things don't look good.  It's not about raw wins and losses but the SP and lack of depth.  We have a #3 starter a, a #4 starter, and three complete liabilities that we can't replace because we have nothing to replace them with.

So at 4.5 back I'm not "giving up" but I'm also not expecting much.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

OK, we've all had a chance to take a deep breath now, with the O's winning three straight, getting back to .500, and actually holding opponents under 5 runs in two of the last three games.   Panic mode is over, but everybody knows the flaws this team has, which have been very apparent over the last six weeks.

So my question is, have you given up on the O's being a playoff contender for 2017?    From a mathematical perspective, they're clearly still in contention, 1.5 games out of the second wild card spot.    But has the trend of the last six weeks convinced you to a high degree of certainty that this team won't be in the thick of the race come September?

I'll give you my answer: I haven't given up yet.    I've been a fan for more than 50 years and I've seen too many times where a team's season took a drastic turn.    In 30 days or so, management is going to have to make its best guess as to its' realistic chances of competing this year, but I see no good reason to rush that process.   A couple of starting pitchers get things turned around, and things could look drastically different.    I'm not very optimistic, but I see no reason to rush the process, either.  

One more thing: I know there are posters who would say that even if we might be able to sneak into the wild card, there's no chance we could seriously contend for a championship.   I don't buy it.    We're not as good as the Astros and several other teams, but if we're good enough to get in the playoffs, there's always an appreciable chance of getting on a roll and making a deep run.   It happens plenty often enough.   

I haven't given up quite yet but in my heart of hearts I just don't think they will. I do worry that DD will make a move that will really hurt the team in the long run for a chance to make the playoffs. 

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I've kinda tuned them out this year. I know the possibility is there for a turnaround, but I'm in show me mode. 

Mostly waiting for the disappointment in standing pat at the deadline, making no decision on Manny, and getting slightly worse next season. 

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Yes. But to be fair, I never thought they were a contender to begin with.

Dan pretty much punted the season when he went into the season with Ubaldo, Miley and an injured Tillman in the rotation.

With all of the other injuries...nothing short of a miracle is saving this team. They're a .500 team at best.

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I have not given up on.. in the sense that I will always root for the Orioles.  I get that if a few things turn around we will have the chance to lose a game denying us the actual playoff (I know.. but you're saying there's a chance?!).  But I will also be heartbroken when in a year or 2, I look around and we have no replacements in any real sense of the word for players like Britton, Machado because of a real long shot taken.  They just don't realistically have it.

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Fine, I'll be the contrarian. 

Yeah, I have.

That doesn't mean I still don't watch as many games as I can and root for these guys.  I want them to win and I'd love to see them get into the playoffs any way they can.  

Realistically, the pitching isn't there.  The offense still relies on the homer too much to score.  Bunch of low OBP guys swinging from their heels, mostly.  Just got shut out tonight.  Tomorrow they can score 10 runs and then back to getting shut out on Friday.  It's an all or nothing approach that just doesn't seem to be built for high performance over an extended stretch of time.   As I said, they'll bust out for a game and then go right back into their shell the next.

The bullpen, once elite, just doesn't seem to be as much of a sure thing.  O'Day is older, breaking down, but still mostly effective.  Givens is solid.  Brach has stepped up and done a good job.  The rest?  Meh.  It'll look different when Britton comes back for sure but as it stands right now I don't think blown saves are a particular problem for us.  

The defense, once air tight, isn't as good either. 

When everything clicks for this team, it's great to see.  I just don't see enough games in the future where it's performing on all cylinders....those rare starts where Ubaldo and Miley dazzle?  Can't count on them.  Can't count on Tillman anymore, which is sad.  

Hey, I'd love to be wrong.  But just watching this team day in and day out, I don't see it.  

 

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It's difficult to give up when you are two games out of the Wild Card, but when you see how many teams are in the thick of it with us combined with the hopelessness of the starting rotation it seems like a long shot to be in contention at the end of the year. 

For the sake of the future of the organization I really hope we are sellers in July even it's not a full blown fire sale. 

We could win 20 of our next 30 and I could change my mind.  I worry we are still going to be floating around .500 in a month and won't do what needs to be done.  

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