TT: Is Bridwell's success with the Angels a strike against the Orioles?

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, ISU94 said:

I know FIP isn't the end all be all, and I'm sure he'd outpitch it. But imo, here, he would likely have been a mid 4 ERA guy consistently at best. Better than a couple guys we have, sure, but not a guy we look back at kicking ourselves over. He is definitely not a guy like that.

A mid 4 ERA guy would be better than Gallardo, Miley and Ubaldo (all making double digits and had multi-years on their contrcts). He's also far younger and controllable. These are the kinds of guys every club should have as it helps control their payroll. Otherwise you're the Orioles. A near $170m payroll with multiple double digit players all performing well below their value.

[sportsfan8703]

I think we grouped Davies in with Wilson and Wright and figured they were similar, so why not trade one for Parra. Wilson had a great stretch last year. Just looked work down. Wright looks like he could be good as a reliever. 

Miranda and Bridwell just struck me as two guys that Buck thought weren't nuggets. We viewed them as relievers and we all know the relief depth we have. 

Buck is great. I hope he's hear the next seven years, but I do think he's had a huge role in getting rid of Miranda, Triggs, Bridwell, and Drake. 

The one thing I will point out is that I don't know if any of those guys pitch as well as they've done in the AL East, in the small parks, 50% at OPACY. 

So it's a different evaluation standard. 

[ISU94]

Just now, LookitsPuck said:

A mid 4 ERA guy would be better than Gallardo, Miley and Ubaldo (all making double digits and had multi-years on their contrcts). He's also far younger and controllable. These are the kinds of guys every club should have as it helps control their payroll. Otherwise you're the Orioles. A near $170m payroll with multiple double digit players all performing well below their value.

I said the best case is he's a mid 4 ERA guy (aka a #5 starter). Yes, those guys are all making big bucks, but they also were expected to be better than that when we paid them double digit salaries. 

This isn't a guy we should be kicking ourselves over. Would I prefer he was here? Sure. But he is very likely a AAAA pitcher that is solid organizational depth that could make a few starts in an MLB rotation, with an outside shot at being a solid #5 starter from everything I have seen/read/watched on the guy. When I say best case that isn't often the case of what happens with a player btw.

Obviously I'd rather have him then nothing, just saying I don't think Bridwell is ever a guy we will look back on being like, "What if?" lol.

[Enjoy Terror]

Even if they miss on Bridwell and he does well, the Orioles have turned some dudes like Darren O'Day and Brad Brach into superstars. IIRC, O'Day was on Texas' dumpster heap of a disabled list when they got him off waivers. Brach was had from the Pads for peanuts because he was effectively wild.

Pitching aside, Chris Davis, Miguel Gonzalez, Mark Trumbo, and JJ Hardy were also guys that other teams gave up on that we did pretty well with. Nate McLouth is another. Nelson Cruz too. I think it balances out over time.

[LookitsPuck]

16 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

I said the best case is he's a mid 4 ERA guy (aka a #5 starter). Yes, those guys are all making big bucks, but they also were expected to be better than that when we paid them double digit salaries. 

This isn't a guy we should be kicking ourselves over. Would I prefer he was here? Sure. But he is very likely a AAAA pitcher that is solid organizational depth that could make a few starts in an MLB rotation, with an outside shot at being a solid #5 starter from everything I have seen/read/watched on the guy. When I say best case that isn't often the case of what happens with a player btw.

Obviously I'd rather have him then nothing, just saying I don't think Bridwell is ever a guy we will look back on being like, "What if?" lol.

I think the biggest issue isn't us having 20/20 in hindsight. It's that this organization continues to hemorrhage talent...whether it be by poor evaluations, development or just poor trades. When we continue  to lose Andrew Triggs, Ariel Mirandas, Parker Bridwells, Zach Davies  (as well as draft picks) because of poor trades or poor acquisitions....it gets magnified. We can't afford to keep screwing the pooch and be stuck with no farm system and little cost controllable starters.   

[Frobby]

I think we have a serious problem with developing and evaluating pitchers.    Where that problem originates and who is responsible and what can be done to fix it is beyond my competence.    All I can say is, that problem existed long before Dan and Buck arrived on the scene.    I don't think they caused it, but they've certainly failed to fix it.

There are just way too many stories of pitchers who leave here and immediately improve to think that's it's just random chance.   

[Flash- bd]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think we have a serious problem with developing and evaluating pitchers.    Where that problem originates and who is responsible and what can be done to fix it is beyond my competence.    All I can say is, that problem existed long before Dan and Buck arrived on the scene.    I don't think they caused it, but they've certainly failed to fix it.

There are just way too many stories of pitchers who leave here and immediately improve to think that's it's just random chance.   

Well said. 

[ISU94]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I think the biggest issue isn't us having 20/20 in hindsight. It's that this organization continues to hemorrhage talent...whether it be by poor evaluations, development or just poor trades. When we continue  to lose Andrew Triggs, Ariel Mirandas, Parker Bridwells, Zach Davies  (as well as draft picks) because of poor trades or poor acquisitions....it gets magnified. We can't afford to keep screwing the pooch and be stuck with no farm system and little cost controllable starters.   

When a team is in win now mode and tries to get vets/players that can help now, that is what happens. We dealt for Wade Miley who was a veteran and has been around the block to hopefully be a consistent piece at the back end of the rotation to keep us in games to give our offense a chance to win. Zach Davies we dealt for a solid OF piece that ended up not working out here. Stuff like that happens. Teams lose prospects when you are in the position we were in...it's going to happen as much as we hate it. The reason it's magnified is because our farm is awful and we don't have good arms to begin with (all the guys you listed are either decent relievers or #5 types at best although Davies was a bit better than that last year but struggling a decent bit this year. Ariel Miranda is also crashing back down to earth and has a mid 5 FIP.

So again, I get why we're upset as our staff sucks and we have no one in the upper minors. But these guys that we're talking weren't teh answers either. Could they have done what we're getting without the hefty price we're paying the vets? Of course. But that doesn't change the fact that if these guys are in our rotation the likelyhood of us being in much better position than we are now or will be if they stuck in our rotation long term is slim.

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, ISU94 said:

When a team is in win now mode and tries to get vets/players that can help now, that is what happens. We dealt for Wade Miley who was a veteran and has been around the block to hopefully be a consistent piece at the back end of the rotation to keep us in games to give our offense a chance to win. Zach Davies we dealt for a solid OF piece that ended up not working out here. Stuff like that happens. Teams lose prospects when you are in the position we were in...it's going to happen as much as we hate it. The reason it's magnified is because our farm is awful and we don't have good arms to begin with (all the guys you listed are either decent relievers or #5 types at best although Davies was a bit better than that last year but struggling a decent bit this year. Ariel Miranda is also crashing back down to earth and has a mid 5 FIP.

So again, I get why we're upset as our staff sucks and we have no one in the upper minors. But these guys that we're talking weren't teh answers either. Could they have done what we're getting without the hefty price we're paying the vets? Of course. But that doesn't change the fact that if these guys are in our rotation the likelyhood of us being in much better position than we are now or will be if they stuck in our rotation long term is slim.

It's just incredibly poor roster management. Is it so much to ask for a GM that can walk and chew gum at the same time? Or know when to retool vs. rebuild? In 2015 it was irresponsible to trade for Parra. In what world was he an impact player that was going to fix the offense? There needs to be some sort of introspection year in and year out to identify when to give up and build for next season (or the next seasons) and when to go for it. 2015 was a half-assed attempt.

My point is you can isolate each trade and try to paint it as a "win now mode". But at some point Duquette has to get some wins under his belts from these trades or acquisitions. 

[99ct]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I was hoping that this 3 inning thing was going to turn into something interesting, but it's not.

What's the 3 inning thing? I must have missed that conversation

[Three Run Homer]

Are the O's still obsessed with eliminating the cutter?  I heard a lot of discussion about this a couple of years ago, to the effect that the O's believed that cutters may help a pitcher in the short run, but sap a pitcher's arm strength and fastball velocity in the long run.  

[AZRon]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

There in lies the real question. I know for a fact that the development team implements things that come from Duquette. They do not have full autonomy to develop how they would like. 

I would appreciate it very much if you would expand on those statements

[ISU94]

4 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

It's just incredibly poor roster management. Is it so much to ask for a GM that can walk and chew gum at the same time? Or know when to retool vs. rebuild? In 2015 it was irresponsible to trade for Parra. In what world was he an impact player that was going to fix the offense? There needs to be some sort of introspection year in and year out to identify when to give up and build for next season (or the next seasons) and when to go for it. 2015 was a half-assed attempt.

My point is you can isolate each trade and try to paint it as a "win now mode". But at some point Duquette has to get some wins under his belts from these trades or acquisitions. 

He traded Mike Clevinger for Mark Trumbo. He got Brad Brach for cheap. He just acquired Miguel Castro this past offseason for little to nothing when he was a former top prospect and still just 21/22 yrs old with great stuff and a high 90's fastball. Got rid of Gallardo and got Seth Smith this past offseason. These are just a few off the top of my mind/recently that  He does have a few wins. Never said he's great or perfect or I even want him to be here right now, but he hasn't just screwed this team over and over again either.

[clapdiddy]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think we have a serious problem with developing and evaluating pitchers.    Where that problem originates and who is responsible and what can be done to fix it is beyond my competence.    All I can say is, that problem existed long before Dan and Buck arrived on the scene.    I don't think they caused it, but they've certainly failed to fix it.

There are just way too many stories of pitchers who leave here and immediately improve to think that's it's just random chance.   

And this is the reason why I'd like to see us acquire pitching talent that's CLOSE to big-league ready.    Less chance we can screw them up.

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, ISU94 said:

He traded Mike Clevinger for Mark Trumbo. He got Brad Brach for cheap. He just acquired Miguel Castro this past offseason for little to nothing when he was a former top prospect and still just 21/22 yrs old with great stuff and a high 90's fastball. Got rid of Gallardo and got Seth Smith this past offseason. These are just a few off the top of my mind/recently that  He does have a few wins. Never said he's great or perfect or I even want him to be here right now, but he hasn't just screwed this team over and over again either.

Miguel Castro is still TBD.

I'm more worried about him not replenishing the farm system and not helping the rotation (meaningfully) in years.

Yes, we can talk about getting one dimensional players like Mark Trumbo for Clevenger and Steve Smith for Gallardo...and even getting a few bullpen arms. You're right about those. Duquette hasn't been completely clueless. 

But starting pitching wins championships...and this club used to be able to make high FIP pitchers look solid...but right now we have a lackluster outfield/defense and no SP. That's a problem.