TT: Is Bridwell's success with the Angels a strike against the Orioles?

[interloper]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think we have a serious problem with developing and evaluating pitchers.    Where that problem originates and who is responsible and what can be done to fix it is beyond my competence.    All I can say is, that problem existed long before Dan and Buck arrived on the scene.    I don't think they caused it, but they've certainly failed to fix it.

There are just way too many stories of pitchers who leave here and immediately improve to think that's it's just random chance.   

What's weird to me is whatever the Orioles are doing in recent years seems to translate well to the bullpen. It's specifically starting pitching development that seems to be the problem.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

When a team is in win now mode and tries to get vets/players that can help now, that is what happens. We dealt for Wade Miley who was a veteran and has been around the block to hopefully be a consistent piece at the back end of the rotation to keep us in games to give our offense a chance to win. Zach Davies we dealt for a solid OF piece that ended up not working out here. Stuff like that happens. Teams lose prospects when you are in the position we were in...it's going to happen as much as we hate it. The reason it's magnified is because our farm is awful and we don't have good arms to begin with (all the guys you listed are either decent relievers or #5 types at best although Davies was a bit better than that last year but struggling a decent bit this year. Ariel Miranda is also crashing back down to earth and has a mid 5 FIP.

So again, I get why we're upset as our staff sucks and we have no one in the upper minors. But these guys that we're talking weren't teh answers either. Could they have done what we're getting without the hefty price we're paying the vets? Of course. But that doesn't change the fact that if these guys are in our rotation the likelyhood of us being in much better position than we are now or will be if they stuck in our rotation long term is slim.

No, stuff like that doesn't happen very often. Davies was under evaluated and the fact that the Orioles were even trying to go for it that year showed the short sightedlness of the FO. they had NO REASON to be going for it that year. Add in the fact that Parra was not going to move the needle even if he kept outperforming his history, and it was an awful decision. A decision that led the Orioles to give up a 1st round draft pick and sign Gallardo.  

What you are missing is the fact that these guys might not be superstars, but all of them are better than what the Orioles have been running out there in Jimenez, Gallardo and Miley, all of which cost much, much more. 

Also, this idea that pitching in Camden Yards is so bad is actually outdated. Look at ESPN's Park factors. Camden Yards is 24th in baseball at 0.925 runs. This is no reason to think that Miranda, Davis, and Bridwell would be doing significantly worse pitching in the AL East as Yankees stadium is the only AL East stadium playing smaller than average.

At the end of the day, the Orioles have given up on young, controllable starting pitching because of poor evaluations. The reason I don't include Eduardo Rodriguez is because that is the kind of prospect for stud move you make when you are a World Series contender, which the Orioles were in 2014. 

Trading for Miley (who was basically a salary dump by the Mariners), giving away Davies for a two-month rental of a non needle mover on a .500 team, and selling Bridwell to the Angels are just poor evaluations of pitching talent.

 

 

[ISU94]

Just now, LookitsPuck said:

Miguel Castro is still TBD.

I'm more worried about him not replenishing the farm system and not helping the rotation (meaningfully) in years.

Yes, we can talk about getting one dimensional players like Mark Trumbo for Clevenger and Steve Smith for Gallardo...and even getting a few bullpen arms. You're right about those. Duquette hasn't been completely clueless. 

But starting pitching wins championships...and this club used to be able to make high FIP pitchers look solid...but right now we have a lackluster outfield/defense and no SP. That's a problem.

So, if Miguel Castro is TBD, why do we have a thread talking about how Bridwell got away or talking about Ariel Miranda etc. who are also young and the league is still figuring them out? I sure as heck feel better about the chances of Miguel Castro making a long term impact than Bridwell or Miranda. Miguel Castro has the repetoire to be a late inning reliever, and could potentially be a solid starter if he can iron some things out. Again, the kid is 22. Not many guys his age or in the majors right now unless they are just absolute studs.

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

He traded Mike Clevinger for Mark Trumbo. He got Brad Brach for cheap. He just acquired Miguel Castro this past offseason for little to nothing when he was a former top prospect and still just 21/22 yrs old with great stuff and a high 90's fastball. Got rid of Gallardo and got Seth Smith this past offseason. These are just a few off the top of my mind/recently that  He does have a few wins. Never said he's great or perfect or I even want him to be here right now, but he hasn't just screwed this team over and over again either.

Trumbo was a salary dump that paid off and Brach and Castro were 40-man roster crunch moves, which he's pretty good at doing. I do give him props for getting ride of Gallardo for anything. He was so done it was funny. Saying that, the Mariners wanted to get rid of Smith so that was basically a salary swap that worked out for the Orioles.

[LookitsPuck]

That's a fair point about Castro.

Although if you're harping on Bridwell's FIP, Castro has a 5.30 FIP in a bullpen capacity. With a 4.8 SO/9 and 2.4 BB/9. That's a 2.0 SO/W ratio.

But here's the thing. One is a reoccurring theme w/ Duquette and the Orioles. The inability to develop starters and the constant mis-evaluation. If I told you that Miranda would have a 101 ERA+ over 165 IP for the Mariners...would you rather have him or Miley? These are the miscalculations. And perhaps worse, having Miley on the club reduces payroll flexibility.

[ISU94]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

No, stuff like that doesn't happen very often. Davies was under evaluated and the fact that the Orioles were even trying to go for it that year showed the short sightedlness of the FO. they had NO REASON to be going for it that year. Add in the fact that Parra was not going to move the needle even if he kept outperforming his history, and it was an awful decision. A decision that led the Orioles to give up a 1st round draft pick and sign Gallardo.  

What you are missing is the fact that these guys might not be superstars, but all of them are better than what the Orioles have been running out there in Jimenez, Gallardo and Miley, all of which cost much, much more. 

Also, this idea that pitching in Camden Yards is so bad is actually outdated. Look at ESPN's Park factors. Camden Yards is 24th in baseball at 0.925 runs. This is no reason to think that Miranda, Davis, and Bridwell would be doing significantly worse pitching in the AL East as Yankees stadium is the only AL East stadium playing smaller than average.

At the end of the day, the Orioles have given up on young, controllable starting pitching because of poor evaluations. The reason I don't include Eduardo Rodriguez is because that is the kind of prospect for stud move you make when you are a World Series contender, which the Orioles were in 2014. 

Trading for Miley (who was basically a salary dump by the Mariners), giving away Davies for a two-month rental of a non needle mover on a .500 team, and selling Bridwell to the Angels are just poor evaluations of pitching talent.

 

 

Okay, and now Davies has a 4.8 ERA with a 4.9 FIP and is struggling quite a bit in Brewer land.

Again, I'm not saying these were good, well though out trades or saying DD is a good GM or he should stay. But I also think due to the lack of pitching development this team has we are getting worked up about guys that are fringe starters in this league but more likely AAAA guys that will likely be back and forth from the minors to the majors unless they go to the pen and stick as a reliever of sorts. Davies I think can be better than that, but still. Would I prefer Davies, Miranda, etc. to the likes of Ubaldo, Miley, etc. right now? Of course. But that is more so due to the uncertain factor of Miranda, Davies, etc. and the price tag for Ubaldo and Miley than me thinking that the results are going to be drastically better if at all(obviously I'm more so talking about Miley, Ubaldo is just utter garbage) with those guys here then not. Miranda could end up being a #5 long term, as could Davies. But thats what Miley has been his whole career and he continues to get dealt for/get signed/get traded for to be put in another teams starting rotation. 

Point is, the Miranda for Miley deal was bad. The Davies for Parra deal was bad. The shipping Bridwell off for nothing was bad. No argument there. I just think that this team not being able to develop pitching is casting a bigger eye on guys that otherwise we probably couldn't care less about besides maybe Davies.

 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

So, if Miguel Castro is TBD, why do we have a thread talking about how Bridwell got away or talking about Ariel Miranda etc. who are also young and the league is still figuring them out? I sure as heck feel better about the chances of Miguel Castro making a long term impact than Bridwell or Miranda. Miguel Castro has the repetoire to be a late inning reliever, and could potentially be a solid starter if he can iron some things out. Again, the kid is 22. Not many guys his age or in the majors right now unless they are just absolute studs.

Who says it has to be either or? You have this thought in your head that DD can do no wrong, but we are showing you that his moves have hurt more than helped and are the reason why we have a sub .500 record with a $160 million payroll in a year when there is a ton of mediocrity and the Orioles should be skating into the playoffs.

I don't think Duquette has done everything bad. You have pointed out some of his good moves which i agree with, but I'm also capable of seeing that he's moved cost controlled young starting pitchers for more expensive and worse veteran pitchers and that is part of our issue. 

Are you telling me right now if the Orioles rotation included Davies and Miranda that it wouldn't be better than Ubaldo and Miley? I would disagree.

[LookitsPuck]

Gallardo is one of the more frustrating signings by Duquette.

Our medical staff had big red flags on him, he comes into spring training barely hitting 86-87mph...and he cost a 1st round draft pick and made double digit dough. He ended up being flipped this season for a 1 dimensional player in Seth Smith (who has put up a 0.4 WAR, BTW).

So all in, Gallardo cost the Orioles a 1st rounder, $11m ($9m last year, $2m this year) and the $7m for Seth Smith. Accrued WAR? Gallardo: 0.2, Smith: 0.4. 

So $18m and a 1st rounder for 0.6 WAR (although still a half season left of Smith, btw). And this could have all been prevented had we just listened to our medical staff.  

And this doesn't count the payroll inflexibility the club had going into this season. And last season. And the impact of a hurt Gallardo (he was on the DL for a period last year) and a hamstrung (no pun intended) defensive OF had on the club.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, ISU94 said:

Okay, and now Davies has a 4.8 ERA with a 4.9 FIP and is struggling quite a bit in Brewer land.

Again, I'm not saying these were good, well though out trades or saying DD is a good GM or he should stay. But I also think due to the lack of pitching development this team has we are getting worked up about guys that are fringe starters in this league but more likely AAAA guys that will likely be back and forth from the minors to the majors unless they go to the pen and stick as a reliever of sorts. Davies I think can be better than that, but still. Would I prefer Davies, Miranda, etc. to the likes of Ubaldo, Miley, etc. right now? Of course. But that is more so due to the uncertain factor of Miranda, Davies, etc. and the price tag for Ubaldo and Miley than me thinking that the results are going to be drastically better if at all(obviously I'm more so talking about Miley, Ubaldo is just utter garbage) with those guys here then not. Miranda could end up being a #5 long term, as could Davies. But thats what Miley has been his whole career and he continues to get dealt for/get signed/get traded for to be put in another teams starting rotation. 

Point is, the Miranda for Miley deal was bad. The Davies for Parra deal was bad. The shipping Bridwell off for nothing was bad. No argument there. I just think that this team not being able to develop pitching is casting a bigger eye on guys that otherwise we probably couldn't care less about besides maybe Davies.

 

Miller park is a hitter's paradise (1.128 Ballpark factor), Davies has a 6.45 ERA at home vs 3.18 on the road. 

[ISU94]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Trumbo was a salary dump that paid off and Brach and Castro were 40-man roster crunch moves, which he's pretty good at doing. I do give him props for getting ride of Gallardo for anything. He was so done it was funny. Saying that, the Mariners wanted to get rid of Smith so that was basically a salary swap that worked out for the Orioles.

So, Trumbo was a salary dump and Mariners wanted to get rid of Smith. I feel like because of that you don't give him credit for that though and I' don't exactly understand that. These guys were available to every team out there and we were able to get the deal done while giving up nothing/getting rid of a terrible contract in Gallardo that is getting lit up still in Seattle.

I hope DD is let go asap. I'm not a fan. Just saying that I see so many posts that just talk about these terrible moves he makes and rarely see anyone talk about the moves he has made that has worked out. I'd say those moves he made made a larger impact on where this team has been the past couple years than losing guys like Davies, Miranda, Bridwell, and Triggs.

[ISU94]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Who says it has to be either or? You have this thought in your head that DD can do no wrong, but we are showing you that his moves have hurt more than helped and are the reason why we have a sub .500 record with a $160 million payroll in a year when there is a ton of mediocrity and the Orioles should be skating into the playoffs.

I don't think Duquette has done everything bad. You have pointed out some of his good moves which i agree with, but I'm also capable of seeing that he's moved cost controlled young starting pitchers for more expensive and worse veteran pitchers and that is part of our issue. 

Are you telling me right now if the Orioles rotation included Davies and Miranda that it wouldn't be better than Ubaldo and Miley? I would disagree.

If you are reading anything I'm saying there's no way you can possibly say that I think DD can do no wrong. I have said in just about every post I've made how I want the guy gone and those were bad trades. I'm just not saying everything the guy has done is wrong and making these arms he's dealt out to be some guys that would be some savior to this team right now. I'm sorry, but I really don't think players like Ariel Miranda, Parker Bridwell, Triggs, or Davies (unless what he did in 2016 is a sign of what his future will be...even though this year he is struggling) is changing where this franchise is.

 

Edit: As for the last part, yes, it definitely would. But last year we were in the thick of things and needed a veteran starter in the back of our rotation. After that deal was made 90% of this forum wasn't huge on Miley but thought heck, all we did was deal Miranda. Now, he's had some success (also has gotten lucky and looks to be falling a bit back down to earth) and we are looking at is as another one of those Davies for Parra trades when I don't think they are really the same at all. 

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/angels/la-sp-angels-bridwell-20170720-story.html

"His status within the organization continued to decline, and in April, Baltimore sold him to the depth-deprived Angels for cash. After a month of building up stamina as a starter, he was in the majors. The Angels showed him a series of cut-up videos indicating the location of his pitches that the opposition had been hitting, and presented evidence that he would be better off throwing fewer fastballs.

That was a shock. For years, the Orioles had harped on the importance of establishing and locating four-seam fastballs. This season, he has halved his four-seam usage in favor of a cutter, slider and sinker, and six of his seven outings as an Angel have been successful."

While the Orioles continue to run Ubaldo and Miley to mound every five days, Parker Bridwell was discarded for nothing. Like trading Davies and Miranda, the Orioles assessed that what they had was better than what these guys could give them at the major league level. The real question is, who are making these evaluations?

It also is a concern that another organization took a player struggling on the Orioles system, showed him what he was doing wrong, and helped make him a pretty successful big league starter. 

As I watch many of the Orioles minor league games, it's not unusual to see the starters throwing 75% or more fastballs. While the league is making adjustments to becoming less fastball heavy, it seems the Orioles have yet to make the same adjustments at the big league and minor league levels. 

Sure, teaching fastball command is important, but also making pitchers find what works for them whether it be with a cutter, changeup, slider or curveball are equally important. 

With three former farm hands drafted or signed in the last six year now pitching successfully in the big leagues as starters, is it fair to say that development take some of the blame? Or, were the players developing fine but the evaluations of their major league abilities off? 

Considering that a lot of the players they've signed(minus Nelson Cruz, Brad Brach and Mark Trumbo), traded for, or acquired have been either been misses or out right busts, I tend to think the evaluators are the ones missing here.

Either way, I found this article interesting and worth some conversation.

I think it is another black mark against the O's organization. This problem has been going on for far to long. DD needs to get off his backside and get better coaches and evaluators for the minors. He or the next GM needs to address that problem. I guess I am dreaming though.  

[LookitsPuck]

Ariel Miranda: 2.6 WAR in 1+ seasons, ~$1m

Zach Davies: 3.5 WAR in 2 1/2 seasons, $1.5m

Andrew Triggs: 0.5 WAR in 1+ seasons, $1m

Parker Bridwell: 1.0 WAR in 1/2 season, $550k

Just those guys have put up 7.6 WAR and have cost a total of about $4m over the last couple years.

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, LA2 said:

Oriole development and evaluation of starting pitchers stinks. This could not have escaped the notice of Duquette and Showalter. Why have they not demanded or instituted the changes that would solve such a huge problem? Or are they part of the problem?

Sounds like they may be part of it.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

So, Trumbo was a salary dump and Mariners wanted to get rid of Smith. I feel like because of that you don't give him credit for that though and I' don't exactly understand that. These guys were available to every team out there and we were able to get the deal done while giving up nothing/getting rid of a terrible contract in Gallardo that is getting lit up still in Seattle.

I hope DD is let go asap. I'm not a fan. Just saying that I see so many posts that just talk about these terrible moves he makes and rarely see anyone talk about the moves he has made that has worked out. I'd say those moves he made made a larger impact on where this team has been the past couple years than losing guys like Davies, Miranda, Bridwell, and Triggs.

The problem is that those little moves are what has cost him to run out the likes of Ubaldo and Miley when he couldn have had young, cheap starting pitchers. You are absolutely right that signing Davis to a large contract and for some reason going after Trumbo for three years are bigger albatrosses at this point, but his poor evaluation of his home grown talent has been a big part of his poor rotation.

Grant it, no one saw Gausman and Tillman imploding this year and those are big hits as well, but my only point here is that his poor evaluations have cost the team. BTW, I don't necessarily think Miranda and  Bridwell will be long term starters, but the fact that they've showed value in the shirt term is what could have helped this team this year. Davies and Miranda instead of Ubaldo and Miley alone would have had the Orioles in the wild card lead in my estimation.