TT: Is Bridwell's success with the Angels a strike against the Orioles?

[Cumberbundy]

On July 21, 2017 at 4:45 PM, Tony-OH said:

No, stuff like that doesn't happen very often. Davies was under evaluated and the fact that the Orioles were even trying to go for it that year showed the short sightedlness of the FO. they had NO REASON to be going for it that year. Add in the fact that Parra was not going to move the needle even if he kept outperforming his history, and it was an awful decision. A decision that led the Orioles to give up a 1st round draft pick and sign Gallardo.  

What you are missing is the fact that these guys might not be superstars, but all of them are better than what the Orioles have been running out there in Jimenez, Gallardo and Miley, all of which cost much, much more. 

Also, this idea that pitching in Camden Yards is so bad is actually outdated. Look at ESPN's Park factors. Camden Yards is 24th in baseball at 0.925 runs. This is no reason to think that Miranda, Davis, and Bridwell would be doing significantly worse pitching in the AL East as Yankees stadium is the only AL East stadium playing smaller than average.

At the end of the day, the Orioles have given up on young, controllable starting pitching because of poor evaluations. The reason I don't include Eduardo Rodriguez is because that is the kind of prospect for stud move you make when you are a World Series contender, which the Orioles were in 2014. 

Trading for Miley (who was basically a salary dump by the Mariners), giving away Davies for a two-month rental of a non needle mover on a .500 team, and selling Bridwell to the Angels are just poor evaluations of pitching talent.

 

 

 

[Cumberbundy]

On July 21, 2017 at 9:34 PM, LookitsPuck said:

There are other rounds than the 1st.

Slot money and talent matter. ♥️

[Cumberbundy]

12 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

Okay?

So we gave away the guy who would be most likely to get us a step closer to the playoffs for nothing. Brutal. 

[Cumberbundy]

9 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

Bridwell is not nor ever will be a #3 starter.

 

I assume you anticipated him putting it to Boston and NY? You may know the future, but seems unlikely. 

[ISU94]

Just now, Cumberbundy said:

So we gave away the guy who would be most likely to get us a step closer to the playoffs for nothing. Brutal. 

Okay.

[ISU94]

3 minutes ago, Cumberbundy said:

I assume you anticipated him putting it to Boston and NY? You may know the future, but seems unlikely. 

A string of solid starts doesn't make me put glasses on that think his stuff is way better than it actually is. Bridwell can be a decent back end starter or pen option, he is not a #3 starter unless you think of #3 starters as much less than I do.

[weams]

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-angels/2017/07/23/491563#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=491563

 

[hoosiers]

Ha ha.  Been waiting for this thread for a couple weeks. 

EdRod had a 4.79 ERA in a large number of starts with a 9.8 H/9, .5 HR/9 and a 2.4 K/BB at Bowie.  In the SAME SEASON, for Boston's AA squad, EdRod pitches to a sub 1 ERA, 7.2 H/9, .2 HR/9 and a doubling of the K/BB ratio to 4.9!  I remember a scout who said we gave up the MOST of any team at the deadline and folks here went nuts.  I also remember reports of EdRod hitting 97 about a month after we dealt him.  What's a guy with that stuff doing with a 4.79 ERA in the Eastern League.  Well, he was a 10 game major league winner the very next season.  Whatever we were doing in our treatment of EdRod in AA, we were doing it wrong.

Jake was a .7 WAR guy in 51 IP for the Cubs after we traded him - that's about a 3 WAR pace in the same season - lowering his WHIP from 1.8 with the Os to 1.1 for the Cubbies - same season.  Oddly, FIP says Jake was worse with the Cubs, but the following year Jake cut his BBs by near two thirds, takes a third off his H/9 and is a 5 WAR pitcher in only 150 IP!

This Bridwell story is embarrassing.  Another team simply changes the mix of pitches and the kid is a 7 game major league winner before the end of July!  A kid we evaluate poorly enough to put in our AAA bullpen to start the year and then sell for cash!

With Davies, with Miranda-Miley, this is FIVE instances of serious mis-evaluation in four seasons.

The biggest opportunity for any organization is to improve from within.  There are guys getting paid big bucks to try to improve what we have in the organization and they are not doing their job nearly well enough.  It's kind of funny to see our FO brag about the Rule V mediocrity it acquires for the bottom of our 40 many roster each year while said FO has serious leakage of the Bridwell variety. 

[99ct]

3 hours ago, weams said:

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-angels/2017/07/23/491563#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=491563

 

I kind of (want to) believe the posts talking about how his peripherals are unsustainable, but this is a bit of a dong punch TBH. 

[eddie83]

More power to Bridwell but it has been 45 innings. 

And after watching this homestand, 2 of which in person nobody is going to convince me the park isn't a factor. 

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

Ha ha.  Been waiting for this thread for a couple weeks. 

EdRod had a 4.79 ERA in a large number of starts with a 9.8 H/9, .5 HR/9 and a 2.4 K/BB at Bowie.  In the SAME SEASON, for Boston's AA squad, EdRod pitches to a sub 1 ERA, 7.2 H/9, .2 HR/9 and a doubling of the K/BB ratio to 4.9!  I remember a scout who said we gave up the MOST of any team at the deadline and folks here went nuts.  I also remember reports of EdRod hitting 97 about a month after we dealt him.  What's a guy with that stuff doing with a 4.79 ERA in the Eastern League.  Well, he was a 10 game major league winner the very next season.  Whatever we were doing in our treatment of EdRod in AA, we were doing it wrong.

Jake was a .7 WAR guy in 51 IP for the Cubs after we traded him - that's about a 3 WAR pace in the same season - lowering his WHIP from 1.8 with the Os to 1.1 for the Cubbies - same season.  Oddly, FIP says Jake was worse with the Cubs, but the following year Jake cut his BBs by near two thirds, takes a third off his H/9 and is a 5 WAR pitcher in only 150 IP!

This Bridwell story is embarrassing.  Another team simply changes the mix of pitches and the kid is a 7 game major league winner before the end of July!  A kid we evaluate poorly enough to put in our AAA bullpen to start the year and then sell for cash!

With Davies, with Miranda-Miley, this is FIVE instances of serious mis-evaluation in four seasons.

The biggest opportunity for any organization is to improve from within.  There are guys getting paid big bucks to try to improve what we have in the organization and they are not doing their job nearly well enough.  It's kind of funny to see our FO brag about the Rule V mediocrity it acquires for the bottom of our 40 many roster each year while said FO has serious leakage of the Bridwell variety. 

Boston is not exactly an organizational with a history of developing their pitching prospects. Also, for the 10,234 time Miller moved the needle. 

[hoosiers]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

More power to Bridwell but it has been 45 innings. 

And after watching this homestand, 2 of which in person nobody is going to convince me the park isn't a factor. 

Boston is not exactly an organizational with a history of developing their pitching prospects. Also, for the 10,234 time Miller moved the needle. 

I have had about five opportunities today to respond to posts like this and I usually don't, but I will here.  I get it.  Miller moved the needle.  Great!  Want a cookie? 

These moves come at a cost and it doesn't seem to matter to folks here what the cost is.  There is a cost.  There is another team on the other side of the transaction identifying assets and saying - I will give you this guy now, but I am trying to get someone who will be as good or better and cheaper in the future.  There is such an ignorance (not singling out eddie at all) to the "move the needle" discussion.  

Feldman was supposed to move the needle and we gave up a guy who finished in the top 10 in the NL Cy Young twice - winning it once.

Bud Norris was supposed to move the needle and he pitched to a .6 WAR in 280 IP at a cost over $15M over three seasons for the Os and we gave up a guy who turned into a top 50 prospect.  Gerald Parra was supposed to be a needle mover.

Has anyone ever heard of a deadline trade that was NOT supposed to "move the needle"?

I would love to discuss whether these trades were worth it or not, but the point Tony is making is that the guys we gave up appear to have been a WHOLE lot better than our FO realized.  And that's the point I supported with multiple pitchers being moved by the Os having significantly better statistics within the same season as being dealt by the Os.  EdRod turned out to be a whole heckuva lot better than he ever performed statistically while in a Red Sox uniform within WEEKS of the trade.  And it is fair question to ask - why did another FO know this and ours didn't?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Parker Bridwell can't lose.

At this point, I'm almost ready to sell my soul if it means the Orioles can start developing pitching prospects. 

[fansince71]

78 pitches in 7 innings, 5 hits and 2 runs. Yeah that could be pretty useful to us. Miley and Tillman throw that many  pitches in 3 or 4 innings. 

[Fan4Life]

12 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Ha ha.  Been waiting for this thread for a couple weeks. 

EdRod had a 4.79 ERA in a large number of starts with a 9.8 H/9, .5 HR/9 and a 2.4 K/BB at Bowie.  In the SAME SEASON, for Boston's AA squad, EdRod pitches to a sub 1 ERA, 7.2 H/9, .2 HR/9 and a doubling of the K/BB ratio to 4.9!  I remember a scout who said we gave up the MOST of any team at the deadline and folks here went nuts.  I also remember reports of EdRod hitting 97 about a month after we dealt him.  What's a guy with that stuff doing with a 4.79 ERA in the Eastern League.  Well, he was a 10 game major league winner the very next season.  Whatever we were doing in our treatment of EdRod in AA, we were doing it wrong.

Jake was a .7 WAR guy in 51 IP for the Cubs after we traded him - that's about a 3 WAR pace in the same season - lowering his WHIP from 1.8 with the Os to 1.1 for the Cubbies - same season.  Oddly, FIP says Jake was worse with the Cubs, but the following year Jake cut his BBs by near two thirds, takes a third off his H/9 and is a 5 WAR pitcher in only 150 IP!

This Bridwell story is embarrassing.  Another team simply changes the mix of pitches and the kid is a 7 game major league winner before the end of July!  A kid we evaluate poorly enough to put in our AAA bullpen to start the year and then sell for cash!

With Davies, with Miranda-Miley, this is FIVE instances of serious mis-evaluation in four seasons.

The biggest opportunity for any organization is to improve from within.  There are guys getting paid big bucks to try to improve what we have in the organization and they are not doing their job nearly well enough.  It's kind of funny to see our FO brag about the Rule V mediocrity it acquires for the bottom of our 40 many roster each year while said FO has serious leakage of the Bridwell variety. 

Yup... I'm ready for a change. Again. 

[eddie83]

20 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I have had about five opportunities today to respond to posts like this and I usually don't, but I will here.  I get it.  Miller moved the needle.  Great!  Want a cookie? 

These moves come at a cost and it doesn't seem to matter to folks here what the cost is.  There is a cost.  There is another team on the other side of the transaction identifying assets and saying - I will give you this guy now, but I am trying to get someone who will be as good or better and cheaper in the future.  There is such an ignorance (not singling out eddie at all) to the "move the needle" discussion.  

Feldman was supposed to move the needle and we gave up a guy who finished in the top 10 in the NL Cy Young twice - winning it once.

Bud Norris was supposed to move the needle and he pitched to a .6 WAR in 280 IP at a cost over $15M over three seasons for the Os and we gave up a guy who turned into a top 50 prospect.  Gerald Parra was supposed to be a needle mover.

Has anyone ever heard of a deadline trade that was NOT supposed to "move the needle"?

I would love to discuss whether these trades were worth it or not, but the point Tony is making is that the guys we gave up appear to have been a WHOLE lot better than our FO realized.  And that's the point I supported with multiple pitchers being moved by the Os having significantly better statistics within the same season as being dealt by the Os.  EdRod turned out to be a whole heckuva lot better than he ever performed statistically while in a Red Sox uniform within WEEKS of the trade.  And it is fair question to ask - why did another FO know this and ours didn't?

Who said Erod wasn't a prospect? Not me. All I said and I stand by it is that Miller in my opinion was worth the risk. If you disagree that is fine. I also stand by the fact that Boston does not have a recent history of developing their own.  

I am not going to go hog wild over 45 innings from Bridwell. I need to see more. 

Arrieta was a failure of the whole organization. He was traded because it wasn't working out. I don't think it was ignorance that he didn't have talent.  

There is a cost for every team that makes deals. Boston has given up a ton of young talent to bring in Sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz. There is only going to be one champion at the end of the day. Plenty of teams have lost talent trying to win titles. 

Norris was good in 2014 and Hader was years away  I recall Buck not being happy when he was dealt.

At the end of the day I don't think the organization didn't realize they were losing assets. You can disagree with the decisions. Our GM also doesn't have the option to sign top tier FA's and his owner limits him elsewhere.