Jump to content

Should JJ Hardy get his starting job back once he's healthy?


Frobby

Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where are you getting the idea that Hardy is just barely above replacement level on defense?    That's not accurate, by the metrics.    He is slightly above average for a starting major league shortstop, which puts him far above replacement value.   

I was just looking at dWAR where he has been .6 wins above replacement, which is not enough to offset his sub replacement level offense. 

But you are right, based on DRS and UZR he is slightly above average. But again, does being slightly above average defensively offset the fact that offensively he costs the team 14 runs  compared to the average shortstop or has an OPS+ of 49?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 243
  • Created
  • Last Reply
9 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

I was just looking at dWAR where he has been .6 wins above replacement, which is not enough to offset his sub replacement level offense. 

But you are right, based on DRS and UZR he is slightly above average. But again, does being slightly above average defensively offset the fact that offensively he costs the team 14 runs  compared to the average shortstop or has an OPS+ of 49?

No, it doesn't, in my opinion.    If he continues hitting like that when he returns, I think he'll need to lose playing time to Beckham, assuming that Beckham is hitting decently.    But I think Buck will give Hardy a longer leash than I would.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, AlbionHero said:

How is it stupid? We got the worst production out of the SS spot this year in the league, and a good amount of that was from Hardy playing. Any average player would be an improvement.

Hardy is not a warm body. His glove has value.Did you see the two  bone head plays Beckham made tonight? Cost at least two runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, El Gordo said:

 You have some numbers to back this up? CD has saved Manny's butt much more than Hardy, IMO. People see a new shiny toy  and have to run down Hardy to fit their narrative, Has beem the #1 defensive SS in baseball for his career 2005-17 according to Fan Graphs, He isn't that now but he hasn't exactly fallen off the cliff with his glove. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

I wish there was some sort of metric that put defensive, offensive, and baserunning value together so we could make a comparison between Hardy and Beckham.  Oh wait, there is the WAR metric.

Tim Beckham (2015-2017, 791PA) 2.6 fWAR (2.0/600PA), 2.5 brWAR (1.9/600PA)

J.J. Hardy (2015-2017, 1114PA) 1.6 fWAR (.9/600PA), 1.3 brWAR ( .7/600PA)

I mean it's pretty clear, and that's not even taking into consideration Beckham is just entering his prime and will be a part of the club beyond this season. While Hardy is about to turn 35 and has already been declining for multiple seasons and is a FA after the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I wish there was some sort of metric that put defensive, offensive, and baserunning value together so we could make a comparison between Hardy and Beckham.  Oh wait, there is the WAR metric.

Tim Beckham (2015-2017, 791PA) 2.6 fWAR (2.0/600PA), 2.5 brWAR (1.9/600PA)

J.J. Hardy (2015-2017, 1114PA) 1.6 fWAR (.9/600PA), 1.3 brWAR ( .7/600PA)

I mean it's pretty clear, and that's not even taking into consideration Beckham is just entering his prime and will be a part of the club beyond this season. While Hardy is about to turn 35 and has already been declining for multiple seasons and is a FA after the season.

If we sit Beck I'm going to wonder wth is happening. I'd hope this was discussed beforehand. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Thank you El Gordo, it won't play for me but I'll try it on another device. It plays the commercial & stalls. 

Frustrating to find out that happened. We need to be the best defensive team possible without the ability to strike people out and Gausman/Britton being our best pitchers, each who get a lot of GBs. Frustrating. Frustrating. I liked the few plays I saw, but 2 runs is obviously the game

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

I like how you ignore his homer, multiple doubles and triple in the 3 games since we got him, and just want to focus on one error. You clearly have an agenda here to think defense is all that matters for a SS so no matter what he does you'll still be on the Hardy bandwagon since he's a better fielder even if Beckhams offensive value completely overwhelms that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, AlbionHero said:

I like how you ignore his homer, multiple doubles and triple in the 3 games since we got him, and just want to focus on one error. You clearly have an agenda here to think defense is all that matters for a SS so no matter what he does you'll still be on the Hardy bandwagon since he's a better fielder even if Beckhams offensive value completely overwhelms that.

Amen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, AlbionHero said:

I like how you ignore his homer, multiple doubles and triple in the 3 games since we got him, and just want to focus on one error. You clearly have an agenda here to think defense is all that matters for a SS so no matter what he does you'll still be on the Hardy bandwagon since he's a better fielder even if Beckhams offensive value completely overwhelms that.

It might but it isn't a given based on his offensive performance over three games. His defense for the next three years is likely to get worse before it gets better.

I didn't like the extension for Hardy but he's always been above average with his glove.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • He'll go back to pulling pitches and hit 30 HRs there.
    • I tend to agree with this.  We certainly aren't the best farm system any more and it's time to use Uncle Dave's money some.  I'm in favor of buying the pitching we need.  There are some good FA arms out there.  If there's a bat on another team they want to trade for that's different since the FA position player list isn't good.
    • This what I think happens too.  We'll trade from the FV 40ish tier not the 45 or higher tier.  And I can see dealing from the top ofthe deck (i.e. Mounty, Urias, Kremer*...) to build the ceiling of the pipeljne or weaker/thinner positions.  *A Kremer based deal would be predicated on an FA SP signing.  I don't see it happening but it's an interesting case study.
    • Maybe he should be a free agent target this offseason. 
    • Hays hit .354 / .404 / .537 against LH pitching this season. I would absolutely take him back as a platoon player who can fill in all three OF positions. Given the number of southpaws other teams throw against us we'd be nuts not to consider signing him if he gets DFA'd. 
    • I went and checked how we compared to other playoff teams in platooning and pinch-hitting during the playoffs.  I used the first two wildcard games as the sample to keep it apples to apples with the Orioles’ experience.  For the 8 wildcard teams, I counted the number of line-up changes from game 1 to game 2 and the number of pinch hit PAs and added them together.  For lineup changes, I didn’t consider batting order or positions, only the number of hitters that started game 1 but didn’t start game 2 (only McCann for the Orioles). The Orioles were middle of the pack - 4th highest moves among the 8 wildcard teams. #       Team                Lineup changes Pinch hits PAs Total        T1 Tigers 3 5 8            T1 Astros 1 7 8 3 Mets 1 6 7 4 Orioles 1 5 6 5 Royals 1 4 5 6 Braves 1 2 3 7 Brewers 1 1 2 8 Padres 0 0 0 For some additional context, only the Orioles and Tigers faced different-handed starters the first two games AND had opposing pitcher handedness change at least 5 times in those games. Teams that faced same-hand starter both days: Royals Astros Mets Braves   Number times opposing pitcher handedness changed in game: Astros - 8 Royals - 8 Orioles - 5 Tigers - 5 Mets - 4 Padres - 3 Braves - 2 Brewers - 1 
    • If Hays is non tendered he will be looking for the team that will play him full time.     And he might find it.   He in not even 30 yet.   But the O's don't have that to offer him.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...