Astros Should Give Orioles What They Want for Britton

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

You hope Gausman doesn’t become one of the 10 or 12 best starters in baseball?

Gausman is a lost cause, he's just not a winner.

[Aglets]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Gausman is a lost cause, he's just not a winner.

Don't even get me started on his terrible baseball name.

[Frobby]

I’ve been thinking a bit about why I don’t like FIP.     In part, I think it’s because FIP doesn’t consider consistency.     Let’s say you have a pitcher who strikes out 2 batters an inning 4 times out of 5, but about once every 5 times has serious command issues gets in trouble and is quite prone to allowing runs, sometimes multiple runs.     Then you have a second guy who strikes out a little more than a batter per inning, gets a ton of ground balls and only has a rough appearance once every 10 times.    FIP is going to like the first  pitcher better, because FIP loves K’s, but I’d prefer the second pitcher.  

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

We will have to agree to disagree .... where are the Orange colored glasses?

2016 2-1  0.54 era 47/47 saves in 69 innings.

Chapman best era 1.54 (2012) , saves 38 (2012 & 2013)

Since Zach became the closer in 2014 he's lost 5 games. In the same period Chapman has lost 12.

have to admit ...Chapman does have more Ks...but that's about it

 

Not really an argument. It's facts versus speculation. Chapman, Jensen, and Miller all stayed relatively healthy and had great seasons this year. Britton did not. Citing prior seasons  seems irrelevant to me when you're original comment was based on what you think Britton "would've" done if he had stayed healthy this year. 

If he was healthy he "might" have had a better season than Chapman, but not the other two. Look at their numbers. They were incredible. 

Jensen's 2017 Stats - 1.32 era, .746 whip, 109 Ks (in 68.1 IP), 41 saves

Chapman's 2017 Stats - 3.22 era, 1.13 whip, 69 Ks (in 50.1 IP), 22 saves (1 save)

MIller's 2017 Stats - 1.44 era, ..83 whip, 95 Ks (in 62.2 IP), 2 Saves (27 Holds)

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Not really an argument. It's facts versus speculation. Chapman, Jensen, and Miller all stayed relatively healthy and had great seasons this year. Britton did not. Citing prior seasons  seems irrelevant to me when you're original comment was based on what you think Britton "would've" done if he had stayed healthy this year. 

If he was healthy he "might" have had a better season than Chapman, but not the other two. Look at their numbers. They were incredible. 

Jensen's 2017 Stats - 1.32 era, .746 whip, 109 Ks (in 68.1 IP), 41 saves

Chapman's 2017 Stats - 3.22 era, 1.13 whip, 69 Ks (in 50.1 IP), 22 saves (1 save)

MIller's 2017 Stats - 1.44 era, ..83 whip, 95 Ks (in 62.2 IP), 2 Saves (27 Holds)

Speculation? Seriously dude.... Britton has 120 saves over the previous three years with an ERA of 1.4 ish.

He was injured this season ...but he's 29 and in his prime for a baseball player.

Jansen is actually a comp the last two seasons. As far as Miller he's a Lefty specialist and doesn't have the saves. And Chapmans saves are not in the ballpark and he is a closer. 

If you look at the last four years I'll bet Britton has the best numbers.

but sure ,..... if you want to look at just 2017 then you can validate your argument. The Orioles wouldnt/won't deal Britton on his 2017 numbers. I think we can agree on that much. Besides none of the guys you mentioned were on the market or dealt in 2017. The two years ago when Chapman and Miller were Zach was the better pitcher.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Speculation? Seriously dude.... Britton has 120 saves over the previous three years with an ERA of 1.4 ish.

He was injured this season ...but he's 29 and in his prime for a baseball player.

Jansen is actually a comp the last two seasons. As far as Miller he's a Lefty specialist and doesn't have the saves. And Chapmans saves are not in the ballpark and he is a closer. 

If you look at the last four years I'll bet Britton has the best numbers.

but sure ,..... if you want to look at just 2017 then you can validate your argument. The Orioles wouldnt/won't deal Britton on his 2017 numbers. I think we can agree on that much. Besides none of the guys you mentioned were on the market or dealt in 2017. The two years ago when Chapman and Miller were Zach was the better pitcher.

Saves?

Lefty specialist?

LHB hit for a 481 OPS this year.

RHB hit for a 424 OPS this year.

[ArtVanDelay]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Speculation? Seriously dude.... Britton has 120 saves over the previous three years with an ERA of 1.4 ish.

He was injured this season ...but he's 29 and in his prime for a baseball player.

Jansen is actually a comp the last two seasons. As far as Miller he's a Lefty specialist and doesn't have the saves. And Chapmans saves are not in the ballpark and he is a closer. 

If you look at the last four years I'll bet Britton has the best numbers.

but sure ,..... if you want to look at just 2017 then you can validate your argument. The Orioles wouldnt/won't deal Britton on his 2017 numbers. I think we can agree on that much. Besides none of the guys you mentioned were on the market or dealt in 2017. The two years ago when Chapman and Miller were Zach was the better pitcher.

We’re in 2017 now.  No one cares about saves. 

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve been thinking a bit about why I don’t like FIP.     In part, I think it’s because FIP doesn’t consider consistency.     Let’s say you have a pitcher who strikes out 2 batters an inning 4 times out of 5, but about once every 5 times has serious command issues gets in trouble and is quite prone to allowing runs, sometimes multiple runs.     Then you have a second guy who strikes out a little more than a batter per inning, gets a ton of ground balls and only has a rough appearance once every 10 times.    FIP is going to like the first  pitcher better, because FIP loves K’s, but I’d prefer the second pitcher.  

FIP only looks at Ks, BBs, and HR.  The pitchers who are underrated by FIP are generally guys who generate a lot of weak contact in the air such as IFFB.  Also being good from the stretch will cause one to be underrated, since FIP doesn’t care about sequencing.  Overrated players are ones who give up a lot of line drives and hard contact.  Also pitchers that struggle from the stretch/under pressure will be overrated since FIP doesn’t care about sequencing.

FIP is just a tool, you don’t need to like it or dislike it.  It’s helpful as it removes things like result sequencing and whether a batted ball in play is turned into an out or two outs or a hit (single, double, triple). Those things are troublesome in evaluating a pitcher because they are subject to so much random variation and can be affected severely by the quality of the fielding.

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Saves?

Lefty specialist?

LHB hit for a 481 OPS this year.

RHB hit for a 424 OPS this year.

Okay ..so I should've said 8th inning pitcher much like Brach.

[Redskins Rick]

54 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Okay ..so I should've said 8th inning pitcher much like Brach.

Miller was one of the better setup man in this time frame.

 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Miller was one of the better setup man in this time frame.

 

That's not my point. We were comparing resumes. Brach has also been one of the better set up men. When he was asked to close everyday the numbers weren't as good.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

That's not my point. We were comparing resumes. Brach has also been one of the better set up men. When he was asked to close everyday the numbers weren't as good.

True, I said this many times in the past, when people want closer by committee or feel any decent reliever can be the closer.

It take a unique mindset to close games, day in and day out, under intense pressure to perform.

[Luke-OH]

43 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

That's not my point. We were comparing resumes. Brach has also been one of the better set up men. When he was asked to close everyday the numbers weren't as good.

10.48 K/9    2.85 BB/9   0.80 HR/9   2.05 ERA     2.92 FIP   3.31 XFIP   2.99 SIERA   1.04 WHIP - Brad Brach's best season 2014-2017

14.59 K/9    2.92 BB/9   0.73 HR/9   2.04 ERA     2.16 FIP   2.06 XFIP   1.72 SIERA   0.86 WHIP  - Andrew Miller's worst season 2014-2017

14.89 K/9    1.09 BB/9   0.97 HR/9   1.45 ERA     1.68 FIP   1.18 XFIP   1.10 SIERA   0.69 WHIP  - Andrew Miller's best season 2014-2017

9.26 K/9    3.44 BB/9   0.93 HR/9   3.18 ERA     3.58 FIP   4.05 XFIP     3.77 SIERA    1.13 WHIP - Brad Brach's worst season 2015-2017 (excluding 2015 so you can't say he wasn't good yet)

Prime Andrew Miller at his worst is better than prime Brad Brach at his best.  Miller's average performance is clearly on another level from Brach.  It's pretty obvious watching them pitch as well. 

[ArtVanDelay]

21 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

10.48 K/9    2.85 BB/9   0.80 HR/9   2.05 ERA     2.92 FIP   3.31 XFIP   2.99 SIERA   1.04 WHIP - Brad Brach's best season 2014-2017

14.59 K/9    2.92 BB/9   0.73 HR/9   2.04 ERA     2.16 FIP   2.06 XFIP   1.72 SIERA   0.86 WHIP  - Andrew Miller's worst season 2014-2017

14.89 K/9    1.09 BB/9   0.97 HR/9   1.45 ERA     1.68 FIP   1.18 XFIP   1.10 SIERA   0.69 WHIP  - Andrew Miller's best season 2014-2017

9.26 K/9    3.44 BB/9   0.93 HR/9   3.18 ERA     3.58 FIP   4.05 XFIP     3.77 SIERA    1.13 WHIP - Brad Brach's worst season 2015-2017 (excluding 2015 so you can't say he wasn't good yet)

Prime Andrew Miller at his worst is better than prime Brad Brach at his best.  Miller's average performance is clearly on another level from Brach.  It's pretty obvious watching them pitch as well. 

But saves.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

But saves.

I can guaranteed you, the next time, an Oriole reliever blows a save.

You better believe OH will be lite up, with people talking about it.

IMO, and I guess I am an old school guy, but I still like the save, because at the end of the day, those 45-55 saves, meant your team went home victorious and celebrating from a close game that could have gone the other way.