Astros Should Give Orioles What They Want for Britton

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

10.48 K/9    2.85 BB/9   0.80 HR/9   2.05 ERA     2.92 FIP   3.31 XFIP   2.99 SIERA   1.04 WHIP - Brad Brach's best season 2014-2017

14.59 K/9    2.92 BB/9   0.73 HR/9   2.04 ERA     2.16 FIP   2.06 XFIP   1.72 SIERA   0.86 WHIP  - Andrew Miller's worst season 2014-2017

14.89 K/9    1.09 BB/9   0.97 HR/9   1.45 ERA     1.68 FIP   1.18 XFIP   1.10 SIERA   0.69 WHIP  - Andrew Miller's best season 2014-2017

9.26 K/9    3.44 BB/9   0.93 HR/9   3.18 ERA     3.58 FIP   4.05 XFIP     3.77 SIERA    1.13 WHIP - Brad Brach's worst season 2015-2017 (excluding 2015 so you can't say he wasn't good yet)

Prime Andrew Miller at his worst is better than prime Brad Brach at his best.  Miller's average performance is clearly on another level from Brach.  It's pretty obvious watching them pitch as well. 

I didn't say Miller wasn't better than Brach! I said Brach was one of the better set up men. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

But saves.

This is comical! Brach's effort as a closer this year is just one example that it does matter. I'm sure you'd agree that Brach was much better in the set up role?

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

This is comical! Brach's effort as a closer this year is just one example that it does matter. I'm sure you'd agree that Brach was much better in the set up role?

I don't think any evidence exists that shows the change in role caused the change in effectiveness.

[Can_of_corn]

After watching Miller perform at a high level in the playoffs in high leverage situations over multiple seasons does anyone think that he couldn't close?

Is it an actual question in people's minds?

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

After watching Miller perform at a high level in the playoffs in high leverage situations over multiple seasons does anyone think that he couldn't close?

Is it an actual question in people's minds?

Maybe Miller could....but that doesn't mean that any good reliever can. Some guys handle pressure differently.  I guess you're right that their is no proof that Brach is a better set up man than closer....Except of course the results

[ArtVanDelay]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

This is comical! Brach's effort as a closer this year is just one example that it does matter. I'm sure you'd agree that Brach was much better in the set up role?

So?   It’s a tiny sample size.  Maybe next year he’ll be a great closer but poor setup man.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Maybe Miller could....but that doesn't mean that any good reliever can. Some guys handle pressure differently.  I guess you're right that their is no proof that Brach is a better set up man than closer....Except of course the results

You consider the data we have to work with sufficient to reach a reliable conclusion? 

 

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You consider the data we have to work with sufficient to reach a reliable conclusion? 

 

From the look on his face in the 9th as opposed to the 8th, I'm guessing the best data we could get might be blood pressure results.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

After watching Miller perform at a high level in the playoffs in high leverage situations over multiple seasons does anyone think that he couldn't close?

Is it an actual question in people's minds?

We don’t really need to guess.    Miller was the Yankees’ closer in 2015: 2.04 ERA, 0.86 WHIP,  14.6 K/9, 36 saves in 38 chances.     He can close just fine, thank you.

[wildbillhiccup]

Ah the offseason. A time when we can have six page thread on the speculative nature of what a player would have done if he had been healthy. The Winter Meetings can't get here soon enough!

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Ah the offseason. A time when we can have six page thread on the speculative nature of what a player would have done if he had been healthy. The Winter Meetings can't get here soon enough!

If healthy is right.  Everyone does remember that Britton was shut down with a knee issue right?

He might not have even made the Astros' post season roster.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You consider the data we have to work with sufficient to reach a reliable conclusion? 

 

As a former athlete, I know that certain players play better the higher the pressure. Can I show you proof ...perhaps not. But I know it exists.

I would imagine that certain guys have higher averages and success in the play offs. Could I prove it sure....but you'd call it a sample size.

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

As a former athlete, I know that certain players play better the higher the pressure. Can I show you proof ...perhaps not. But I know it exists.

I would imagine that certain guys have higher averages and success in the play offs. Could I prove it sure....but you'd call it a sample size.

As a former athlete I know that at the higher levels, you don't make it unless you can play well under pressure.  You also missed the post about Miller's success as a closer.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

As a former athlete I know that at the higher levels, you don't make it unless you can play well under pressure.  You also missed the post about Miller's success as a closer.

So Cal Ripken was a .247 hitter with 2 outs and runners in scoring position and Eddie Murray hit .292 in the same situations. The numbers are career so don't blame sample size. 

If Murray wasn't better in high leverage situations how else can you explain the difference Mr Former Athlete? They were both major league players and yet one was 45 points better. How do you explain it?

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

So Cal Ripken was a .247 hitter with 2 outs and runners in scoring position and Eddie Murray hit .292 in the same situations. The numbers are career so don't blame sample size. 

If Murray wasn't better in high leverage situations how else can you explain the difference Mr Former Athlete? They were both major league players and yet one was 45 points better. How do you explain it?

Ok, I get it, you get to say that you know something from your experience as an athlete, but then you mock me for giving my take from my legitimate experience as an athlete.  Well, let’s put that aside, as unfortunate as it is.

So since you want to talk about Eddie Murray and Cal, here we go.

I’ll use the same situation - 2 out, RISP.

I’ll use stats that actually tell a bigger story than just batting average. I’ll use OPS.  Instead of comparing them to each other (which doesn’t make sense because they have different hitting abilities) I compared them to their overall OPS in all situations.

Murray

.855 in clutch

.836 overall 

Cal

.774 in clutch 

.788 overall

Ok, now we have some decent data. Keep in mind this still doesn’t control for hitting environments of the stadiums, quality of pitchers, or score of the game (don’t think it matters that much personally but just saying 2 out RISP is far from a perfect analog for clutch situation.).

So Cal hit 1.8% worse than career in this situations and Eddie hit 2.2% better than career in these situations. That’s a small difference, but not nearly the one you portrayed in your post.

How do we explain this difference, well for one Murray had 58 more Intentional walks than Cal in less plate appearances. Intentional walks, I think you’d agree are not under the hitter’s control.  If you add the intentional walks to Cal’s 2 out RISP line, it makes his OPS almost identical to his career line.

So now the difference is about 0% for Cal and 2.2% for Eddie, could that 2.2% improvement for Eddie be explained by greater clutch ability, perhaps, but I think it’s far from conclusive and even if it is the effect is quite small.