Will Mark Trumbo Be Back With Orioles In 2018?

[mdbdotcom]

It's gonna take a whole lot of international slot money to unload this albatross.

I don't want someone else's bad contract in return. Just get rid of him.

[foxfield]

I’m all for it I think it would be great. Trade a third string catcher for a 9.5 million a year player who leads the majors in Hr and drives in 108 runs...then sign him to a 3 yr 37.5 million dollar contract have him have his worst year ever and then trade him for a starter. Sign me up!!!!?

[Richmond Bird 9]

Mark is owed 26 mil over 2 yrs (this is sunken cost).

Here is my trade:

Mark Trumbo + 13 mil $, Tanner Scott and Stefan Crichton

for

Brad Miller and Ryan Yarbrough/lhp. 

Both Mark and Brad are controlled for 2 yrs each. Brad is sch to make 5 mil via arbitration. Therefore makes it close to money neutral. Brad gives us a left handed bat who can play inf/of (back up ss). Yarbrough pitched at AAA last year and pitched 159 inns (poss 4/5 pitched for us). 

[Babypowder]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

Agreed.    That was still enough time for him to do some damage out there, but most of his negative value came from having a poor year with the bat.   

There seem to be an awful lot of people assuming that 2017 is his new offensive norm, however.    That’s no more valid than expecting 2016 to be his norm.    

For his career, Mark Trumbo has a 88 wRC+ as a DH in 1011 plate appearances. He appears to have a significant DH penalty, as some people may have pointed out when he was being re-signed. That number is much closer to his 2017 than his 2016. I don't think that is a coincidence.

He can't hit as a DH and when he plays a position that isn't 1B, he can't field well enough to provide positive value despite the offensive improvement. He has no useful role, especially not at significant cost. I'm happy he was an average player in 2016, but that was his ceiling. This is why he was traded for Steve Clevenger.

[MDtransplant757]

20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Chen's deal is significantly worse than the Trumbo deal.

Chen's elbow is done. Didn't think about that. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Babypowder said:

For his career, Mark Trumbo has a 88 wRC+ as a DH in 1011 plate appearances. He appears to have a significant DH penalty, as some people may have pointed out when he was being re-signed. That number is much closer to his 2017 than his 2016. I don't think that is a coincidence.

He can't hit as a DH and when he plays a position that isn't 1B, he can't field well enough to provide positive value despite the offensive improvement. He has no useful role, especially not at significant cost. I'm happy he was an average player in 2016, but that was his ceiling. This is why he was traded for Steve Clevenger.

I did the math a while ago, but Trumbo’s OPS as a DH was just fine until 2017.     So, you can ascribe his bad year to spending most of it as a DH if you want, but for me, in this case correlation doesn’t imply causation.  

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I did the math a while ago, but Trumbo’s OPS as a DH was just fine until 2017.     So, you can ascribe his bad year to spending most of it as a DH if you want, but for me, in this case correlation doesn’t imply causation.  

Agreed.

[POR]

On 10/30/2017 at 9:14 AM, Can_of_corn said:

You lost me at contract seemed reasonable.

Trumbo has less value now than when he was traded for a third string catcher.

I have made this point before, but I don't think in today's game of swinging from the heels and launch angles people fully appreciate how great the supply is of players like Trumbo that provide good power and little else.

Logan Morrison hit 38 homers in 2017 and made $2.5 million.

Justin Smoak hit 38 homers in 2017 and made a little over 4 million.

Yondo Alonso hit 22 homers with the A's in 100 games before being traded for a mid range prospect. Matt Olsen, another mid range prospect replaced Alonso and hit 21 more homers as a 1B.  The A's got 43 homers out of 1B and paid Alonso-Olsen less than 5 million.

There are just very few teams in the market for a 1B/ DH and there are a lot of options for those teams.  If the Orioles trade Trumbo they are going to have eat most of his salary or acquire another bad contract.  Ian Kennedy has a bad contract (3 years and 49 million left.).  However, the difference is that every team is looking for starting pitchers and only a handful of teams are looking for a 1B/ DH type.    

[Babypowder]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I did the math a while ago, but Trumbo’s OPS as a DH was just fine until 2017.     So, you can ascribe his bad year to spending most of it as a DH if you want, but for me, in this case correlation doesn’t imply causation.  

The last 5 seasons:

2017 as a DH 66 wRC+, 80 overall

2016 109 as a DH, 125 overall

2015 81 as a DH, 107 overall

2014 73 as a DH, 90 overall

2013 78 as a DH, 107 overall

Penalty looks pretty real to me.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

The last 5 seasons:

2017 as a DH 66 wRC+, 80 overall

2016 109 as a DH, 125 overall

2015 81 as a DH, 107 overall

2014 73 as a DH, 90 overall

2013 78 as a DH, 107 overall

Penalty looks pretty real to me.

Pre-2017, Trumbo had a .776 overall OPS, .762 as DH.  That’s pretty minor.  In 2014, which you cite, Trumbo had all of 8 PA as a DH.    In 2012, which you omitted, he had 93 PA as a DH and carried a .948 OPS.    I’m not ready to say that playing DH is what hurt Trumbo’s offense in 2017.

[El Gordo]

CO., KC,  CLE, Mets, LAA, and MIA might have an interest in Trumbo as a 1B.

[Babypowder]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

Pre-2017, Trumbo had a .776 overall OPS, .762 as DH.  That’s pretty minor.  In 2014, which you cite, Trumbo had all of 8 PA as a DH.    In 2012, which you omitted, he had 93 PA as a DH and carried a .948 OPS.    I’m not ready to say that playing DH is what hurt Trumbo’s offense in 2017.

Fair enough, I only went back 5 seasons because I don't ever think anything older than 5 years is relevant in any case.

[El Gordo]

8 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

CO., KC,  CLE, Mets, LAA, TEX, and MIA might have an interest in Trumbo as a 1B.

 

[Lucky_13]

Free Agent 1B 

Yonder Alonso (31)
Lucas Duda (32)
Eric Hosmer (28)
John Jaso (34)
Adam Lind (34)
Tyler Moore (31)
Mitch Moreland (32)
Logan Morrison (30)
Mike Napoli (36)
Mark Reynolds (34)
Carlos Santana (32)
Danny Valencia (33)

If You're a team that needs a 1B do any of these guys really jump out at you other than Hosmer and Santana. I think Trumbo (If the Orioles eat some salary) would be a solid second option. Also the team that loses out on the J.D. Martinez sweepstakes could be looking for a right handed bat. 

[tntoriole]

I am in the group that believes Trumbo is not yet on the steep decline but had an offyear in 2017 and will be improved in 2018.  But he is not tradeable in this offseason.  

Mark seems to be a very hard worker and hopefully will get back to doing more of what he does successfully.