Brian Roberts trade rumors back on!

[Mackus]

So you dont think DCab, Sherrill, and Roberts could net Escobar, Gamel, Laporta, and maybe Weeks and a low level prospect? What if we added a prospect and took on Hall? If the Brewers would do DCab, Sherrill, and Roberts for LaPorta, Gamel, and Escobar i would do that in a second.

Unless we include Wieters we're not gonna get both Gamel and LaPorta.

I think something along the lines of Roberts and Sherrill for Gamel, Escobar, and Weeks would be possible.

Even if we somehow matched them in value, I don't think the Brewers would give up both those guys. Teams just don't give up two prospects of that high value (assumign Gamel has moved up to the top 30-50 or so) in a same deal unless they are getting something truly special, like the Miguel Cabrera trade with Miller and Maybin.

[wickedwitch]

Really? Picks 35 and 53 in this year's draft don't add value?

They add value, but not all that much.

What percentage of players picked 35th or 53rd become major leaguers? It's tiny.

Only one player drafted 53rd in the past 20 years has had more than 50 ABs in the majors. The 35th pick is better, but still quite unlikely.

[LookinUp]

So you dont think DCab, Sherrill, and Roberts could net Escobar, Gamel, Laporta, and maybe Weeks and a low level prospect? What if we added a prospect and took on Hall? If the Brewers would do DCab, Sherrill, and Roberts for LaPorta, Gamel, and Escobar i would do that in a second.

No, I don't, but it also has to do with what I'd typically expect from each organization. Gamel and LaPorta are very strong prospects that the O's can and should target if they're at all available. Roberts, Sherrill and Cabrera have value and can certainly net a nice return either in one deal or several deals.

Unfortunately, I just don't see Milwaukee taking on salary and getting older in the process in exchange for their top young prospects. I could see it if they can justify it by also getting young pitching - which we have a lot of - in return.

Now, would McPhail trade young pitching? Maybe. Would he trade Roberts, Sherrill, Cabrera and young pitching for 3-5 players? I seriously doubt it. I just don't see him operating like that. Quantity really matters to McPhail so I see him making 2-3 trades where we "load-up" on young position players with good upside rather than target young players that would take a mint to obtain.

LaPorta and Gamel won't come cheap...especially LaPorta. He's just about as off-limits as Bruce was last year. That doesn't mean something couldn't be worked out with the Brewers though, I just don't think LaPorta will be part of it.

[Stotle]

They add value, but not all that much.

What percentage of players picked 35th or 53rd become major leaguers? It's tiny.

Only one player drafted 53rd in the past 20 years has had more than 50 ABs in the majors. The 35th pick is better, but still quite unlikely.

Well, you'd have to look at the quality of player around that part of the draft rather than the specific slot. The draft isnt exact enough to say a #35 pick is the same class across the years. Anyway:

Inman was drafted in round 3 (at 85)

Garrison was drafted in round 10 (at 295)

Even with the value of developmental time, MIL is looking at getting better players with this years picks. That leaves Thatcher for Linebrink.

MIL was not giving up a ton for Linebrink. They made out quite well.

[Sports Guy]

Of course Saves and ERA are going to be more important. Its because they are more important. What do you think is a better indicator of future success, GB%, Save%, or ERA?

Obviously a GM isn't going to look at only one of these things. They are gonna look at the whole picture. Each aspect gets weighted and then he applies a value to the guy. He then decides if the guy he's giving up is worth that value.

I don't see the problem here, really.

Why are you asking me this? It is EXTREMELY clear that i am not talking about the future and that i am saying that a team trading for Sherrill is going to be looking at the here and now.

No, I do not think they are going to like at his GB/FB rate, say he has a lot of issues long term and not go after him...I haven't seen much evidence of this stuff ever happening before and I see no reason to believe it now.

The teams that will pursue Sherrill and be willing to pay the price will do so because of saves, save % and ERA. Period.

That is my point...When you show me any evidence at all that that is wrong, then we can start talking about the other stuff.

[Mackus]

Why are you asking me this? It is EXTREMELY clear that i am not talking about the future and that i am saying that a team trading for Sherrill is going to be looking at the here and now.

No, I do not think they are going to like at his GB/FB rate, say he has a lot of issues long term and not go after him...I haven't seen much evidence of this stuff ever happening before and I see no reason to believe it now.

The teams that will pursue Sherrill and be willing to pay the price will do so because of saves, save % and ERA. Period.

That is my point...When you show me any evidence at all that that is wrong, then we can start talking about the other stuff.

Hehe, so I have to show you evidence that your hypothetical situation is right or wrong

Teams are going to look at everything. Saying they are going to categorically overlook one stat because others are good or bad is naive. They may or may not go after him (and if they decide to go for it this year, I think they will, and pay a lot). But i guarantee you Melvin won't automatically assume he's gonna be the same guy from here on forward just because thats what he is now. He's gonna run essentially a cost analysis. Figure out what he things the odds are of him remaining a top-level closer, an ok closer, a bad closer, a decent reliever, a bad reliever, a loogy, and flaming out and also weight each for how close it is to what he is currently doing. Then combine the value of all those pieces and put together a value in his mind for Sherrill. Then he has to decide if the asking price is worth what his value of sherrill is.

Everything is much more complicated than you make it out to be. These guys aren't stupid. They aren't gonna think Sherrill is guarantee to be a lockdown closer just because he's doing it right now. They'll figure out how likely he is to do it, then decide if he's worth paying the price for. I think if they decide to make a run this year, that the Brewers will decide he's worth a big price (but not LaPorta).

[Sports Guy]

Teams are going to look at everything. Saying they are going to categorically overlook one stat because others are good or bad is naive.

As long as you and others stop putting words into my mouth, you would know that neither I or anyone else said this.

They may or may not go after him (and if they decide to go for it this year, I think they will, and pay a lot). But i guarantee you Melvin won't automatically assume he's gonna be the same guy from here on forward just because thats what he is now.

Sure...But if he wants him and other teams want him, he knows he is going to have to pay to get him.

It boils down to performance plus supply and demand...How many closers are going to be available this year? How many of them have a lot of service time? How many of them are performing well?

You guys talk about peripherals...Fine..The best stat for relievers say he is the 4th best reliever in the sport right now.

Now, i have my long term reservations about him as well and that is why I want to trade him but at the deadline, when in contention, teams do silly things especially for guys that have a "premium position"(and yes, closer is that in todays game) and guys that multiple teams will be after.

You could make the argument that the Brewers would be right there with the Cubs right now if Gagne was his old self...Don't think Melvin, a guy who has paid high prices in the past for relievers, doesn't know that.

[Mackus]

A lot of saves and a low ERA is all it will take for the GMs to pay a lot for Sherrill...You should know this.

As long as you and others stop putting words into my mouth, you would know that neither I or anyone else said this.

Please don't accuse me of putting words in your mouth.

I think we are getting away from what at least I thought was the main point you were making. Which was that if his ERA and Saves are good, he'll be valued as a top closer. I disagree with that because of his track record. If he had a great track record (like the Urbina reference you made earlier) teams would largely overlook some disappointing predictive stats (although not completely ignore) but since he's never done it before, he's gonna be more heavily scrutanized.

I definitely agree he will have big value, but he won't have the same value as someone who has similar numbers this season to him, but a stronger long-term base. Say, for example, someone like Huston Street (and not just for age reasons). Street would have stronger value in my mind because he's been consistently saving games for 4 years now, even if his predictive numbers indicated that he might be in line for a decline (although they don't, he's still real nasty). Sherrill's only been doing it for two months and teams will take that into account. Of course, they'll probably have to pay somewhere between what they think they should give up for someone without a track record and what a mega-proven guy would get, simply because of supply and demand like you mentioned.

But the point I've been trying to make is that he won't have the same value as someone with a better track record previously but otherwise similar stats this year, including predictive ones.

[Sports Guy]

Please don't accuse me of putting words in your mouth.

You will have to show me where I said they won't take the other things into consideration. Please show me that. Until you do, then yes you are putting words into my mouth. Ultimately, if these guys want him, the saves and ERA will be all they look at. But of course, they will look at other things but the decision to trade for him is going to be based on his performance right now.

But the point I've been trying to make is that he won't have the same value as someone with a better track record previously but otherwise similar stats this year, including predictive ones.

And I never said he would either.

Although Street's track record also states that he is an injury risk.

[Mackus]

You will have to show me where I said they won't take the other things into consideration. Please show me that.

Right here:

A lot of saves and a low ERA is all it will take for the GMs to pay a lot for Sherrill...You should know this.

all it will take seems to imply it won't take anything else. Unless you have a different interpretation of the word "all" than i do.

Ultimately, if these guys want him, the saves and ERA will be all they look at.

But of course, they will look at other things.

You do see the conflict here, right?

[Sports Guy]

Right here:

all it will take seems to imply it won't take anything else. Unless you have a different interpretation of the word "all" than i do.

You do see the conflict here, right?

If a team decides to trade for him and target him, those will be the 2 things they look at...I stand by that and I believe that. I do not give a lot of GMs credit for being able to overlook those things...And it would shock me if many would.

However, they obviously will look at other things and some teams that just decide to not go after him will not because of some of his peripherals.

However, some of his peripherals grade him out as outstanding as well.

And, ultimately, the teams that will go after him will be doing so without caring all that much about his gb/fb ratio.

They will pay the price because of saves and ERA.

He is clearly worth more now then he would be as a set up guy because of that saves column and the value GMs place on it.

[Mackus]

If a team decides to trade for him and target him, those will be the 2 things they look at...I stand by that and I believe that. I do not give a lot of GMs credit for being able to overlook those things...And it would shock me if many would.

However, they obviously will look at other things and some teams that just decide to not go after him will not because of some of his peripherals.

You do realize you, for the third time at least, are contradicting yourself in consecutive sentences (or paragraphs).

I think you are interchanging the phrase "all the will look at" and "the main thing they will look at". I'm not saying anybody will "overlook" ERA and saves, or that it would even be smart to. Just that teams will consider other things other than those stats, just not as heavily weighted. Those will most likely be the major factors, but certainly not the only ones.

My argument would be that everybody is going to look at everything about him. People aren't gonna trade for him without having a pretty damn good idea of what he's about. That goes for any player. Some teams will put more emphasis on some areas than others. Some will be more daring than others. But all the teams will look at all the information available, and then make their own assessments of how much they need him and what they should give up for him.

Some teams will even be willing to pay more than their perceived value of him, because he fills a hole that nobody else fills. Or they think he's a missing piece towards building a contender. And a lot of teams will base the bulk of their assessments off of his current ERA and save chances, those are important numbers. But again, I think its incredibly naive to suggest any team will base something on only those numbers (and I think you think its naive as well, because you keep saying teams "will only look at these two things" and then immediately say, "but they'll also look at other stuff").

[Sports Guy]

You do realize you, for the third time at least, are contradicting yourself in consecutive sentences (or paragraphs).

I think you are interchanging the phrase "all the will look at" and "the main thing they will look at". I'm not saying anybody will "overlook" ERA and saves, or that it would even be smart to. Just that teams will consider other things other than those stats, just not as heavily weighted. Those will most likely be the major factors, but certainly not the only ones.

My argument would be that everybody is going to look at everything about him. People aren't gonna trade for him without having a pretty damn good idea of what he's about. That goes for any player. Some teams will put more emphasis on some areas than others. Some will be more daring than others. But all the teams will look at all the information available, and then make their own assessments of how much they need him and what they should give up for him.

Some teams will even be willing to pay more than their perceived value of him, because he fills a hole that nobody else fills. Or they think he's a missing piece towards building a contender. And a lot of teams will base the bulk of their assessments off of his current ERA and save chances, those are important numbers. But again, I think its incredibly naive to suggest any team will base something on only those numbers (and I think you think its naive as well, because you keep saying teams "will only look at these two things" and then immediately say, "but they'll also look at other stuff").

Why does Sherrill have a lot more value now than he did at this time last year?

[Mackus]

Why does Sherrill have a lot more value now than he did at this time last year?

Because he's showing that he can handle the closer's role without melting down a la LaTroy Hawkins and also not be a straight LOOGY but rather a guy who can get both righties and lefties out for more than 2 batters an appearance.

Why does he not have as much value as someone who's done that for the past 5 years?

[Sports Guy]

Because he's showing that he can handle the closer's role without melting down a la LaTroy Hawkins and also not be a straight LOOGY but rather a guy who can get both righties and lefties out for more than 2 batters an appearance.

Why does he not have as much value as someone who's done that for the past 5 years?

Track record...But who cares, this isn't the issue so I have no idea why you continue to bring it up.

The issue is why is some team going to pay a lot more for him right now versus if he was a set up guy or LOOGY?