MLBTR's FA starter contract projections

[wildcard]

1.  Yu Darvish – Cubs.  Six years, $160MM. 

4.  Jake Arrieta – Brewers.  Four years, $100MM. 

5.  Masahiro Tanaka – Phillies.  Five years, $100MM. 

9.  Lance Lynn – Rangers.  Four years, $56MM

11.  Alex Cobb – Twins.  Four years, $48MM.

21.  CC Sabathia – Yankees.  Two years, $24MM. 

27.  Andrew Cashner – Athletics.  Two years, $20MM

29.  Tyler Chatwood – Phillies.  Three years, $20MM. 

31.  Jaime Garcia – Royals.  Two years, $16MM. 

33.  Jhoulys Chacin – Reds.  Two years, $14MM.

46.  Jason Vargas – Orioles.  One year, $10MM. 

47.  Chris Tillman – Tigers.  One year, $10MM.

49.  Michael Pineda – Rays.  Two years, $6MM. 

50.  Miles Mikolas – Padres.  Two years, $10MM. 

 

At these rates the O's could sign:

Cashner  2/24

Chatwood 3/26

Garcia 2/20

No way would I sign Tillman 1/10

 

 

 

 

[tntoriole]

They could, but I don't believe that they will.  If they sign more than one free agent pitcher not named Tillman,  I will be very surprised.......but I think these figures are high at the top end and too low from Cashner down.    If Tillman proves healthy, he will get that or more.  If I was Tillman's agent, I would be having a late offseason workout for interested teams if he is physically doing well.    If not, he won't even get that.   

 

 

[weams]

And in the FA Hitter list 

 

Quote

40.  Carlos Gonzalez – Orioles.  One year, $12MM.  Gonzalez, 32, played nine years with the Rockies.  He hit 211 home runs, finished third in the MVP voting in 2010, made three All-Star teams, and won three Gold Gloves.  CarGo is an accomplished former star, and he’s managed to shake some of his injury-prone reputation by playing 439 games over the last three years.  As recently as 2015-16, he was still an above average hitter, but this year he dipped to .262/.339/.423 in 534 plate appearances (good for an 87 wRC+).  Gonzalez is unable to hit left-handed pitching, and he’s been much worse away from Coors Field.  Over the past three years on the road against right-handed pitching, Gonzalez has hit .271/.338/.454 with a 108 wRC+, which seems like a good baseline for what he might be able to do for a new team.

 

 

[weams]

1 minute ago, weams said:

And in the FA Hitter list 

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

[wildbillhiccup]

Those who've been advocating signing Vargas would be wise to read the below. In short, he's really no better than Wade Miley. 

Vargas posted a 6.66 ERA over his final 16 starts.  Vargas turns 35 in February, and between his age and rough finish, he might struggle to find a two-year deal despite decent overall numbers.

[wildbillhiccup]

12 minutes ago, weams said:

And in the FA Hitter list 

 

 

I would have loved to see CarGo in O's uniform two years ago. I just don't see how it makes sense now though...

[Luke-OH]

Since my thinking is the O's should reload for 2019...

I'd go Chatwood, Hunter (reliever), Niscasio (reliever), and Mikolas.  

Chatwood stabilizes the rotation a bit and has youth/upside.

Hunter and Niscasio are underrated relievers who could be flipped at the deadline but are cheap enough to keep around.

Mikolas is a Wei-Yin-like longshot who could provide some upside cheaply.

Total cost this season using the prediction #s is about 25 million which would put payroll under last year's payroll.

Edit: I'd prefer to give Chatwood a fourth year as a team or vesting option and a third year on the Mikolas deal.  Increases the upside if they pan out.

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I would have loved to see CarGo in O's uniform two years ago. I just don't see how it makes sense now though...

We will add a LH bat, I am sure.   We are too righthanded.   I have been saying since August that we will add a LH bat, probably an outfielder.

I know everyone is willing to hand a starting job to Hays, but he started the year in High A ball and that was considered a risk and a departure from the norm, and he's had < 200 at bats above high A.  

I don't know if CarGo is the LH bat, but we will add one.   Maybe it will be another Seth Smith type, a platoon OF like Aoki or something.   But it's going to happen.

[El Gordo]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

We will add a LH bat, I am sure.   We are too righthanded.   I have been saying since August that we will add a LH bat, probably an outfielder.

I know everyone is willing to hand a starting job to Hays, but he started the year in High A ball and that was considered a risk and a departure from the norm, and he's had < 200 at bats above high A.  

I don't know if CarGo is the LH bat, but we will add one.   Maybe it will be another Seth Smith type, a platoon OF like Aoki or something.   But it's going to happen.

Jay Bruce? Granderson? CarGo? Platoon with Snatander/Hays?

[SteveA]

Just now, El Gordo said:

Jay Bruce? Granderson? CarGo? Platoon with Snatander/Hays?

Santander is a 4th/5th outfielder for 45 days while someone like Gentry or Rickard sits in Norfolk waiting his turn, then Santander spends the rest of the year in the minors.

Yeah, Bruce, Granderson, CarGo, Aoki, Matt Joyce, the resurrected corpse of Michael Saunders.   I don't know who it will be but we will add an LH bat and it pretty much has to be an outfielder.

[El Gordo]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Santander is a 4th/5th outfielder for 45 days while someone like Gentry or Rickard sits in Norfolk waiting his turn, then Santander spends the rest of the year in the minors.

Yeah, Bruce, Granderson, CarGo, Aoki, Matt Joyce, the resurrected corpse of Michael Saunders.   I don't know who it will be but we will add an LH bat and it pretty much has to be an outfielder.

I think Santander will platoon with the LH OF bat until his 45 days are up and then he'll co down and Hays will come up, assuming he's hitting well.

[wildcard]

If the O's could keep Hays, Mullins, Stewart and Santander by signing 3 free agent starters, I would not worry about signing a FA outfielder.    Mullins and Santander are switch hitters and Stewart bats lefty.   Pus Sisco bats left.

[bpilktree]

The Red Sox are going to be chances the Dodgers pay roll based on these numbers.  They already are at max what is another 50 million.

[Frobby]

I’d be really surprised if Lynn and Cobb go as cheaply as projected.   I’d be all over both of them at those prices.    

[SteveA]

Just now, Frobby said:

I’d be really surprised if Lynn and Cobb go as cheaply as projected.   I’d be all over both of them at those prices.    

Yeah, if we could get Cobb for what we paid Ubaldo.....