International Signing Period

[Big Mac]

Garabez Rosa's stats so far this season...

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPSORI	GCL	.308	9	39	8	12	1	2	1	5	20	1	3	3	0	.325	.513	.838Minors		.308	9	39	8	12	1	2	1	5	20	1	3	3	0	.325	.513	.838

I looked him up, and noticed he's a SS, if he can stay there he's definitley a guy to watch out for.

[B-more]

OK: I give up: your right: Lets not go after the top talent: They MIGHT not work out: Besides, what we've been doing has worked out so well.

See Tony's post. We are signing some guys and it seems Stocktill or his scouts over there have scouted some of the higher priced guys but doesn't feel they are worth the price and risk. That may change in the future. Also, remember that MacPhail just started a year ago and has just started to put more emphasis on scouting internationally. Part of the added emphasis means we may not have had enough of a presence before to really properly evaluate these current high priced international signings to be willing to take the risk on them.

Maybe in the future, we will be after certain higher priced guys because we've seen them a lot more and can feel more confidant in taking that risk.

You seem to be attributing years of failure in signing foreign talent to the current admin. Things can't always change overnight. It also sounds like the O's currently want to take the approach of going after more mid-priced and below guys rather than the current high priced guys because the O's don't feel they are worth it.

[wayne25]

See Tony's post.* We are signing some guys and it seems Stocktill or his scouts over there have scouted some of the higher priced guys but doesn't feel they are worth the price and risk.* That may change in the future.* Also, remember that MacPhail just started a year ago and has just started to put more emphasis on scouting internationally.* Part of the added emphasis means we may not have had enough of a presence before to really properly evaluate these current high priced international signings to be willing to take the risk on them.Maybe in the future, we will be after certain higher priced guys because we've seen them a lot more and can feel more confidant in taking that risk. You seem to be attributing years of failure in signing foreign talent to the current admin.* Things can't always change overnight.* It also sounds like the O's currently want to take the approach of going after more mid-priced and below guys rather than the current high priced guys because the O's don't feel they are worth it.

The Current administration just said its not competing for what is considered the top talent due to the orioles being CHEAP as far as signing latin talent. As I said before, YOU HAVE TO COMPETE FOR THE TOP TALENT , if you want to compete against the Yanks and Red sox. As far as Sarasota, for the first time in years, maybe decades, they have 4 or 5 bats that at least bear watching. Rosa, Dashenko, Hoes, Avery, and possible one or two others. Maybe this is the year, the blind oriole squirrel finds his acorn.

[Walladarsky]

For a primer on the top and most expensive prospects:

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/06/25/july2notes/

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/06/27/july2ndothers/

And for a general primer on the "International Game" read this very interesting article from the Hardball Times. I think it confirms much of what Tony said in his post about greater oversight happening in the Dominican. It is insane to read that many players there are not signed by their buscones until they're 12 years old. Basically, their professional lives begin when many of them haven't even popped their first zit:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-international-game/

[Walladarsky]

The signings are trickling in, with the Braves, Padres and Yankees landing the first big fish of the day. Inoa signed for a million less and turned down a major league contract to sign with the A's.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3470209

[djp200]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2008/266411.html

Inoa signs for $4 mill. if history has shown, this is likely to be another bust and yet another reason why the O's shouldn't invest in the overpaid latin american players. Examples, Wily Mo Pena is batting .218 with the Nationals with 2 hrs and a .259 OBP and signed a $2.44 Million dollar contract in 1999. Joel Guzman, signed with the Dodgers in 2001 for $2.25 Million, now batting .268 with a .290 OBP and 15 HRs in AAA Durham, batting a whopping career MLB average(over 24 games) of .232. And Ricardo Aramboles who signed a $1.52 Million contract with the Yanks in 1998. Anyone ever heard of him? Highly doubtful because he never really got above A ball and after 6 professional seasons(last being 2004) he had a career 4.10 ERA with his best years being in Rookie ball. If anyone has spare time to do research on the other top ten bonus babies of all time, feel free to contribute or rebute, however with the risk of the player not being the same age as he claims and the fact that Dominican players are riskier than High School draft picks(they are 15-16 years old), I am glad that the Orioles are playing it smart and staying out of the bonus baby game. Now I wish the kid the best of luck and hope he proves me wrong, but odds are he won't be the next Pedro Martinez or Edinson Volquez.

There is an equal amount of risk in signing any amateur from the amateur draft. For every bonus baby that doesn't pan out, there are equally as many, if not more, failures from the draft. The key is not putting all of your eggs in one basket. The Padres spent $5M on signing 5 prospects today.

http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/2008/07/enjoy-padres-fans-enjoy.html

This is probably a better way to spend $5M than putting it all in say Justin Smoak.

[hoosiers]

There is an equal amount of risk in signing any amateur from the amateur draft.

As Jarman hints, the risk is not equal. US HS draftees are 17 and 18 years old and the collegians are 20-22. There is much less inherent risk in these kids than the 15 and 16 year olds.

It's ironic how many people want to avoid the super-hard throwing HS RHPs in the first round, but then we find people who want us to spend the same big $ on younger arms throwing 90+ that are just as or more likely to burn out and get injured.

[djp200]

As Jarman hints, the risk is not equal. US HS draftees are 17 and 18 years old and the collegians are 20-22. There is much less inherent risk in these kids than the 15 and 16 year olds.

It's ironic how many people want to avoid the super-hard throwing HS RHPs in the first round, but then we find people who want us to spend the same big $ on younger arms throwing 90+ that are just as or more likely to burn out and get injured.

If you're deciding between throwing $5M at a 16 yr old Dominican kid and $5M at an 18 yr old HS kid, then the risk is higher for that specific comparison. But the point is you can't just avoid or refuse to dip into a potentially valuable source for good prospects just because there is risk involved. There are plenty of high profile failures in the amateur draft as well. There's risk inherent in any prospect and just b/c one source has a higher inherent risk than the other doesn't mean you avoid the higher risk altogether.

In general, your odds of a prospect panning out is much higher if the $5M is spread out over a few young Dominican prospects than spending $5M on one HS kid in the draft.

[Jarman8675]

If you're deciding between throwing $5M at a 16 yr old Dominican kid and $5M at an 18 yr old HS kid, then the risk is higher for that specific comparison. But the point is you can't just avoid or refuse to dip into a potentially valuable source for good prospects just because there is risk involved. There are plenty of high profile failures in the amateur draft as well. There's risk inherent in any prospect and just b/c one source has a higher inherent risk than the other doesn't mean you avoid the higher risk altogether.

In general, your odds of a prospect panning out is much higher if the $5M is spread out over a few young Dominican prospects than spending $5M on one HS kid in the draft.

I agree with this and was why earlier in these posts I was trying to get this point off to Wayne25 who refused to listen. I think next year the Orioles will probably feel a bit more confident and nibble at the International market but this is not the year. They just started reorganizing their international scouting department and rebuilding the dominican academy down there or however they set it up. I remember last year when everyone was bickering when we only drafted a handful of high school kids and wouldn't listen to those who said hey we are rebuilding, we need to get some good college prospects in our organization before we can take the risk on a High School kid. This year I feel as if its the same argument but with latin players now and although I don't work in the organization I feel the Orioles are not quite ready to take the risk in that market when the big money making latin players have yet to prove they are worth the money at that age. This years draft had quite a few High Schoolers with 2 being in the first 5 rounds. Next year might not be different, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Orioles test the market by signing a guy or two to $100k-250k contracts, not yet big enough to make huge news, but at least testing the waters.

[Jarman8675]

I agree with this and was why earlier in these posts I was trying to get this point off to Wayne25 who refused to listen. I think next year the Orioles will probably feel a bit more confident and nibble at the International market but this is not the year. They just started reorganizing their international scouting department and rebuilding the dominican academy down there or however they set it up. I remember last year when everyone was bickering when we only drafted a handful of high school kids and wouldn't listen to those who said hey we are rebuilding, we need to get some good college prospects in our organization before we can take the risk on a High School kid. This year I feel as if its the same argument but with latin players now and although I don't work in the organization I feel the Orioles are not quite ready to take the risk in that market when the big money making latin players have yet to prove they are worth the money at that age. This years draft had quite a few High Schoolers with 2 being in the first 5 rounds. Next year might not be different, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Orioles test the market by signing a guy or two to $100k-250k contracts, not yet big enough to make huge news, but at least testing the waters.

Before someone corrects me or comments, this is a guess. I don't know what the average signing bonus is down there and what is above average/what we pay for our players currently but I feel it is below this number since we haven't made much news.

[wayne25]

I agree with this and was why earlier in these posts I was trying to get this point off to Wayne25 who refused to listen. I think next year the Orioles will probably feel a bit more confident and nibble at the International market but this is not the year. They just started reorganizing their international scouting department and rebuilding the dominican academy down there or however they set it up. I remember last year when everyone was bickering when we only drafted a handful of high school kids and wouldn't listen to those who said hey we are rebuilding, we need to get some good college prospects in our organization before we can take the risk on a High School kid. This year I feel as if its the same argument but with latin players now and although I don't work in the organization I feel the Orioles are not quite ready to take the risk in that market when the big money making latin players have yet to prove they are worth the money at that age. This years draft had quite a few High Schoolers with 2 being in the first 5 rounds. Next year might not be different, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Orioles test the market by signing a guy or two to $100k-250k contracts, not yet big enough to make huge news, but at least testing the waters.

Your right, I refuse to listen to anyone who defends the Orioles NOT PARTICIPATING, in all avenues that will produce TALENT. If Oakland and Toronto can sign this type talent than so should the Orioles. Your way of thinking should result in the Orioles Passing on the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft because is more expensive and most don't make it. You and those who think like you, must be very hopeful about the O's future even though they don't sign big money free agents, don't scout or sign Japanese talent, don't go after the best talent in latin america, etc....WHAT are you basing your hopes upon?

[Jarman8675]

Your right, I refuse to listen to anyone who defends the Orioles NOT PARTICIPATING, in all avenues that will produce TALENT. If Oakland and Toronto can sign this type talent than so should the Orioles. Your way of thinking should result in the Orioles Passing on the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft because is more expensive and most don't make it. You and those who think like you, must be very hopeful about the O's future even though they don't sign big money free agents, don't scout or sign Japanese talent, don't go after the best talent in latin america, etc....WHAT are you basing your hopes upon?

I'm basing my hopes on the fact that they are investing in their international scouting, the system is working more on investing their money in young, talented players in the draft since the MacPhail/Jordan era started, the fact that the Orioles big league club is playing like a team now for the first time in over a decade, the minor league system has gone from being ranked anywhere from 25th to 30th the past couple of years and now they are in the 15thish range. Also the A's already have a well developed parent team and farm system. The Blue Jays have some talent in their system already as well and can afford the risk. Travis Snider, Justin Jackson, John Tolisano, Brett Cecil, Brandon League, just to name a few. Boston has a loaded farm system and can take the risk of investing. New York has a loaded farm system and bank account to invest. Almost all the teams who are competing in the International market right now are stocked either on their team currently or in their farm system except San Diego. Again as of right now, the Orioles can not and SHOULD NOT invest in a 15/16 year old who has a worse success rate than a High School All Star. Not to say that we can't in the future, but right now is stupid. Out of curiosity, where you one of the ones who bashed the Orioles last year for not drafting many High Schoolers?

[Walladarsky]

As the two quotes below from this link http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/7/4/564667/international-signing-thre make clear it's not as simple as just spending money or not. In fact, the more established teams are staying away from the big dollar signees. It's all about establishing an infrastructure and a reputation, something it appears the Orioles, after many years of neglect, are just beginning to take care of.

The Yankees have also made their signees official:

- INF Giancarlo Arias

- C/3B Jackson Valera

- OF Ramon Flores

- SS Anderson Felix

- RF Yeico Calderon

As mentioned above, Felix was for $500,000, and all of these players were fringe seven figure talents that the Yankees locked up early in the process. While the bonuses aren’t clear yet for all of these players, it appears all five were for below-market, value-type deals between $500,000 and $900,000.

The big market, established teams are the ones with the infrastructure in place to pull off something like the Yankees did; the experienced scouts, relationships, reputation, know-how, etc. Notice how none of the traditional Latin powers are on these big, seven-figure talents, that it’s all relatively new teams trying to make a name for themselves. I’m sure the Mariners, Braves, Red Sox, and Mets list of signees will look pretty similar to that Yankees list.