Jose Mesa Jr - Rule 5 Draftee

[sportsfan8703]

14 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

His dad had a 20 year MLB career so I think he probably picked something up from him.  Mesa Jr. needs to improve fastball command and see a tick up in either slider or curveball to start in 2018.  It'll be interesting in spring training.

How would you rank him vs. our other RH relived prospect types?  Like Liranzo, Chricton and Yacobonis?  Just in terms of talent and not roster flexibility. 

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I like Hicks and Helsey better than Gomber or Hudson personally.  Reyes should be the #1 target if he is at all available, he's probably worth more than Flaherty, Hudson, and Gomber combined IMO.

Here's the thing .... You I think the top 3 could well be Flaherty, Gomber, and Helsley who I like as much as you. Throw in a position player Edman, or Mercado and I'd have a hard time saying no.

 

My thought on Hicks is that he's not yet pitched at AA.

other than injury, I think the chance the chance of those three  being effective MLB pitchers is pretty high.

Could Hicks also? I think he could but Duquette wants a LH starter which leads me to Gomber and the fact that he wants close to ready pitchers. Who knows he may have to settle for Flaherty, Gomber, and Hicks as the three arms due to rating. Or based on the fact that they might be trying to get a position player in their top 10 Bader or Kelly?

[weams]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How would you rank him vs. our other RH relived prospect types?  Like Liranzo, Chricton and Yacobonis?  Just in terms of talent and not roster flexibility. 

You did not ask me, but phillyOs did indicate that he sees Mesa as a starter. You would assume that puts him a tick above Chrichton and Jimmy. 

The Os do have an interesting looking 40 man right now. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

How would you rank him vs. our other RH relived prospect types?  Like Liranzo, Chricton and Yacobonis?  Just in terms of talent and not roster flexibility. 

I'm not particularly high on any of those guys.  Crichton has the best command, but the stuff is meh.  Liranzo's control/command is a mess and the fastball while upper 90s is flat.  Yacobonis has the best fastball of Mesa, Liranzo, Crichton, Araujo, or Wright.  It's got plus velocity and movement, but his control is lacking, and he doesn't have a consistent second pitch.  I like Mesa the best of all these guys, but he might not be as ready to get MLB hitters out as Yacabonis, Crichton, or Wright.  Mesa has only 30 some innings in AA so there may be some growing pains.

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, weams said:

You did not ask me, but phillyOs did indicate that he sees Mesa as a starter. You would assume that puts him a tick above Chrichton and Jimmy. 

The Os do have an interesting looking 40 man right now. 

In this article he was rated as the Yankees 18th best pitching prospect in their system early this year. They credit the move to the rotation with his recent success. MLB has Lirianzo and Crichton 22 and 25 in the Orioles prospects.

i think he will likely be in that ball park and can't see him sticking with the team this year if not out of the pen,and that's assuming you have him and Cortez competing for 5Th starter and long reliever.

If that's the case you can pick up one free agent starter. Vargas? And get one ready pitcher in the deals which will get you more quantity for Manny imo.

 

https://calltothepen.com/2017/09/03/new-york-yankees-prospect-jose-mesa-jr-succeeding-as-starting-pitcher/

[Luke-OH]

15 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

In this article he was rated as the Yankees 18th best pitching prospect in their system early this year. They credit the move to the rotation with his recent success. MLB has Lirianzo and Crichton 22 and 25 in the Orioles prospects.

i think he will likely be in that ball park and can't see him sticking with the team this year if not out of the pen,and that's assuming you have him and Cortez competing for 5Th starter and long reliever.

If that's the case you can pick up one free agent starter. Vargas? And get one ready pitcher in the deals which will get you more quantity for Manny imo.

 

https://calltothepen.com/2017/09/03/new-york-yankees-prospect-jose-mesa-jr-succeeding-as-starting-pitcher/

IMHO they are more like 35-40 range. 

If Mesa was the 18th pitching prospect in their system early in the year, he's probably a good bit higher now since he was able to show some success in AA and in 4-6 inning stints.  

[Ruzious]

9 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Thank you for the compliment, but for the most part I think teams know what they are doing.  That's my assumption at least until I hear from a good source otherwise.  The only truly inexplicable rule 5 move in my opinion was by the Twins.  They left the highest upside reliever and most likely reliever to stick in the majors unprotected (Burdi and Bard).  Then they picked a guy who throw 100 but doesn't have a MLB quality second pitch and has poor control.  It's not like Burdi and Bard don't have good stuff.  Burdi has the best stuff in the rule 5 draft, 100+ and a plus to plus-plus slider.  Bard hits 97 and has a near plus slider with above average to plus command.  Really baffling to me. I also think utility infielder is a position teams could have taken more advantage of in the draft, generally a lot of journeyman UTIL in the majors, and there were a handful of guys with regular upside available including Nate Orf, Pablo Reyes, Kean Wong, and Travis Demeritte.

It does seem like they are putting more thought into it.  Garcia strikes me as a guy one scout saw in instructionals and thought, "wow this guy is pretty good" and they took a flyer on him even though he hadn't even seen A+ ball.  McFarland didn't have much upside, but he was a decent pick,  he provided the value of a 2/5m reliever for league minimum.  I think a lot of teams could benefit from trying more fringe starters as relievers.  Rickard strikes me as a guy who was picked by statistical analysis alone, I think anyone who saw his swing would be doubtful about his ability to hit for any power in the majors and most of his value was his BB rate and I don't know how you can project a good BB rate in the majors for a guy who won't hit for power.

I thought the Braves pick made absolutely no sense, and I'm not sure he was really any MLB team's property (listed as a Yankee) since he was last pitching overseas. 

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I thought the Braves pick made absolutely no sense, and I'm not sure he was really any MLB team's property (listed as a Yankee) since he was last pitching overseas. 

???

He pitched for the Yankees affiliates in 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013.

[pmost86]

On 12/15/2017 at 6:48 PM, phillyOs119 said:

I've watched some video on Mesa Jr. and here is my scouting report.

Physical - Big boy, tall and thick throughout.  

Delivery - Old school over the top delivery, uses every inch of his height to create downward plane.  Fairly low effort delivery, repeats it well most of the time. Can lose release point on occasion.

Stuff - He throws a FB, SL, CH, and CU.  The fastball is above average, sits 92-95 when starting, great plane, some armside life at times.  The change-up is his best pitch, his go to out pitch, and it is at least a plus pitch.  It is thrown with great arm speed and tumbles, it is extremely deceptive with his over the top delivery.  His breaking pitches come and go from outing to outing.  His curveball is a 12-6 breaker that flashes average but is extremely inconsistent and he doesn't throw it too much. It's a below average pitch to me.  He throws a slider that varies from a tight late breaker at times to a sweeping slurvy thing.  It appears that he is working on his breaking balls and they aren't just 2 separate pitches at this time, it's more of a spectrum.  The slider is fringe average currently.

Control/Command- Besides losing his release point from infrequently from time to time, he has good control.  His fastball command can be a bit spotty, that's probably the most important thing he improves if he's going to stick with the Orioles.  He commands his secondaries better.  He's around the plate a lot but tends to nibble more than he needs to, he's got legit stuff.  He seems like the type who never wants to give up a hit.  

Thoughts - I missed on this guy, in my defense he wasn't on the list of rule 5 eligible players I went through.  He's legit, and I think he's a starter.    He has deception, and good stuff, and a good feel for pitching.  He knows what he wants to throw, he shakes off his catchers more than anyone I've seen.  He was great in AA this year (SSS but my eyes back it up) and was stretched out to 80 pitches and 6 innings.  He lost 2+ years due to TJS and that's why he was available in the rule 5 draft.

Great pick, I love it, good work by the Orioles.  I think you have to keep him, more upside than Cortes or Araujo, if he's not ready to start, throw him in the bullpen and he should survive with his fastball/changeup combo.

Interesting that fangraphs rated his change up as "below average".

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-2017-rule-5-picks/

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, pmost86 said:

Interesting that fangraphs rated his change up as "below average".

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-2017-rule-5-picks/

Yeah I noticed that, my reports are based on what I see even if it conflicts with other opinions.  It’s just one of the better minor league changeups I’ve seen, I mean I only watched 20ish innings but I don’t think anyone put it in play and it generated at least 12-13 swinging strikeouts.  It mimics his FB perfectly and he throws it with great arm speed.  It’s possible Longenhagen is going off old reports, it’s not like he was a heavily scouted player. Mesa’s stuff looks like it took a big step forward this year.

[theobird]

Thanks so much for the reports and all the hard work, PhillyO's! I appreciate reading your stuff. I also like Mesa of the Rule 5 picks to keep. if we can only carry one. The kids arm action looks eerily similar to his Dad. I hope he can develop into a starter, I see him as becoming a big innings eating horse. Count me in as a Mesa Jr. fan. I think he was a smart selection.

[Jammer7]

Thanks Philly, for all of your hard work. I have seen less video than you, but I am not as high on him as you. To me the curve is terrible, he cannot seem to stay on top of it. The fastball has some pop, but it is straight from what I saw. His change was ok at times, not much depth though. It looked like maybe he throws a split like his dad, and that could be his swing and miss offering for pen duty. He seems to like to work down in the zone, and below it. I think he will get crushed at the ML level, and certainly as a starter. ML hitters will make him bring the ball up. I am intrigued by what you wrote about his uptick and possibility as a starter. He’s a soft bodied kid, but like you said, he likely got some wisdom from dad. And wow, he looks just like him on the mound.

I actually like Araujo’s stuff much better. I was surprised you are down on him. Neither will probably stick, but Araujo seemed to have better command of his fb and movement. 

[Luke-OH]

17 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Thanks Philly, for all of your hard work. I have seen less video than you, but I am not as high on him as you. To me the curve is terrible, he cannot seem to stay on top of it. The fastball has some pop, but it is straight from what I saw. His change was ok at times, not much depth though. It looked like maybe he throws a split like his dad, and that could be his swing and miss offering for pen duty. He seems to like to work down in the zone, and below it. I think he will get crushed at the ML level, and certainly as a starter. ML hitters will make him bring the ball up. I am intrigued by what you wrote about his uptick and possibility as a starter. He’s a soft bodied kid, but like you said, he likely got some wisdom from dad. And wow, he looks just like him on the mound.

I actually like Araujo’s stuff much better. I was surprised you are down on him. Neither will probably stick, but Araujo seemed to have better command of his fb and movement. 

I agree the curve is a 40 (below average), his breaking balls are not consistent and come and go from outing to outing.  He throws an average curveball and slider from time to time, but at his age I’m not projecting them to average since most are 40/45.  The fastball doesn’t have a ton of horizontal movement although he gets some horizontal run at times when he throws it arm side.  It has great downward plane and extension though. He doesn’t command it well enough, and I noted that that’s the biggest thing he’ll need to improve to stick. I like his chances because of the easy repeatable delivery. I love the changeup, it has big vertical drop when he throws it glove side, and it has a nice late tail when he leaves it arm side.

The video I watched of him from 2016 was poor (poor command, stuff not as sharp) and I only watched a little of his time as a reliever in 2017.  The main video I watched was 3 full starts in AA, every pitch. The highlight was him making Michael Chavis look like a fool multiple times.

[Ruzious]

On 12/16/2017 at 5:28 PM, phillyOs119 said:

???

He pitched for the Yankees affiliates in 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013.

My bad - you're absolutely right.  I must have clicked on someone else by accident.  

[Jammer7]

21 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

I agree the curve is a 40 (below average), his breaking balls are not consistent and come and go from outing to outing.  He throws an average curveball and slider from time to time, but at his age I’m not projecting them to average since most are 40/45.  The fastball doesn’t have a ton of horizontal movement although he gets some horizontal run at times when he throws it arm side.  It has great downward plane and extension though. He doesn’t command it well enough, and I noted that that’s the biggest thing he’ll need to improve to stick. I like his chances because of the easy repeatable delivery. I love the changeup, it has big vertical drop when he throws it glove side, and it has a nice late tail when he leaves it arm side.

The video I watched of him from 2016 was poor (poor command, stuff not as sharp) and I only watched a little of his time as a reliever in 2017.  The main video I watched was 3 full starts in AA, every pitch. The highlight was him making Michael Chavis look like a fool multiple times.

Thanks for that. I look forward to seeing him in the Spring.