Don’t you wish that just once....

[Camden_yardbird]

There are a lot of teams that fail to do this. 

Boston?  They buy their TOR guys outside of a year of Buchholtz.  Yankees?  No, maybe Severino.  The Jays last best attempt might be Halladay, Sanchez might get there, but they traded Syndergaard.

There are a few teams that seem especially adept at it.  Indians, KC, STL, Giants come to mind, but a lot struggle.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Camden_yardbird said:

There are a lot of teams that fail to do this. 

Boston?  They buy their TOR guys outside of a year of Buchholtz.  Yankees?  No, maybe Severino.  The Jays last best attempt might be Halladay, Sanchez might get there, but they traded Syndergaard.

There are a few teams that seem especially adept at it.  Indians, KC, STL, Giants come to mind, but a lot struggle.

Good point, and dont forget the Cards.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Good point, and dont forget the Cards.

nevermind, I cant read. LOL

[Ohfan67]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Bedard in 2007 with a 5.7 WAR of course was worthy of being a TOR.

He had some of the best stuff of any active pitcher in that era. Piss poor team, and he still went 13-5, a WHIP of 1.08, also consider he was a 6th round pick playing at a community college, is pretty significant.

You go all the way back to Mussina, drafted 1st round, 7 years of WAR over 4, 1 year 3.6, and his high was 8.2.

His bad year was a 1.6

You got to go all the way back to 1990 for that gem.

Matusz came close, with a 3.0 WAR, but he wasn't close to being a TOR

I do think Bundy still has the making of being a true ace.

 

Yes, Bedard's two best years were TOR worthy, but because of injuries and maybe durability issues he only had the two years so his career is not the kind of career you associated with TOR pitchers. But he was awesome when he was healthy and, of course, his trade value to the Orioles was fantastic. 

 

It's basically Mussina and ancient history. Very sad. 

 

I hope you are right about Bundy, but a couple of the projection systems don't really like him and are predicting poor 2018's (I know those predictions are not worth much, but...). 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

Yes, Bedard's two best years were TOR worthy, but because of injuries and maybe durability issues he only had the two years so his career is not the kind of career you associated with TOR pitchers. But he was awesome when he was healthy and, of course, his trade value to the Orioles was fantastic. 

 

It's basically Mussina and ancient history. Very sad. 

 

I hope you are right about Bundy, but a couple of the projection systems don't really like him and are predicting poor 2018's (I know those predictions are not worth much, but...). 

his threw a 2.7 for the team, so he was almost 3 times better than a replacement player.

If he continues to grow and learn at his craft, then realistically its still very doable.

 

[Ohfan67]

9 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

There are a lot of teams that fail to do this. 

Boston?  They buy their TOR guys outside of a year of Buchholtz.  Yankees?  No, maybe Severino.  The Jays last best attempt might be Halladay, Sanchez might get there, but they traded Syndergaard.

There are a few teams that seem especially adept at it.  Indians, KC, STL, Giants come to mind, but a lot struggle.

Cough, Jon Lester, cough. 

 

I really, really wish the Orioles were good at it, but it is not everything, for sure. Some pretty sucky organizations, the Reds for example, have been much better at drafting and developing pitchers with seasons > 4 WAR than the Orioles. It is probably correlated with playoff appearances, but not perfectly for sure. The Reds are a really interesting case...they have developed a ton of good pitchers (in relative terms) and have very little to show for it. 

[Ohfan67]

5 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

his threw a 2.7 for the team, so he was almost 3 times better than a replacement player.

If he continues to grow and learn at his craft, then realistically its still very doable.

 

When it comes to TOR, I bet it would be easy to show that this is relatively meaningless, old-time baseball speak. TOR starters are typically very, very good right out of the gate and there's little "craft" to learn; they typically have nasty stuff. But I think you may be right about Bundy. There are some very promising stats for Bunday. He was 8th best in walks and hits per 9, for example (every other pitcher on the top 10 list is TOR type, by the way). Bundy had a complete game which tied him for 5th best in the league. I giggled about 1 being a tie for 5th best until I looked at the names in the list...it's good company. Likewise, he was only one of 10 AL pitchers to throw a shutout (tied for 3rd most with 1). Again, lauding one shutout seems silly until you see the list of the names. Those leaderboards do not include a lot off silly accidents. We can debate Bundy's future until we are all blue in the face, but Bundy has the ability to really dominate hitters when he is on. That seems basically unteachable and incredibly rare among Orioles recent pitchers. And of course a key ingredient for TOR. Go Bundy!

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

When it comes to TOR, I bet it would be easy to show that this is relatively meaningless, old-time baseball speak. TOR starters are typically very, very good right out of the gate and there's little "craft" to learn; they typically have nasty stuff. But I think you may be right about Bundy. There are some very promising stats for Bunday. He was 8th best in walks and hits per 9, for example (every other pitcher on the top 10 list is TOR type, by the way). Bundy had a complete game which tied him for 5th best in the league. I giggled about 1 being a tie for 5th best until I looked at the names in the list...it's good company. Likewise, he was only one of 10 AL pitchers to throw a shutout (tied for 3rd most with 1). Again, lauding one shutout seems silly until you see the list of the names. Those leaderboards do not include a lot off silly accidents. We can debate Bundy's future until we are all blue in the face, but Bundy has the ability to really dominate hitters when he is on. That seems basically unteachable and incredibly rare among Orioles recent pitchers. And of course a key ingredient for TOR. Go Bundy!

Curt Schilling comes to my mind. 5th year, he threw a 5.9 and then skipped 3 years before throwing a 4.9.

His 8.8, 8.7, 6.0 and 7.9 for a 4 year period dont come much better than that.

 

 

[spiritof66]

One way to increase your chances of both acquiring TOR guys and filling out your starting rotation with quality arms is to use the international draft to bring in guys who, while young and unproven, have potential.

Some of those picks will turn out to be wasted, and many of those young pitchers won't develop. To improve your chances of getting value from the international draft, you can build up your scouting and player development in Latin America. It can get expensive. 

Then there's the Oriole Way. . . .

 

 

 

 

 

[Ohfan67]

23 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Curt Schilling comes to my mind. 5th year, he threw a 5.9 and then skipped 3 years before throwing a 4.9.

His 8.8, 8.7, 6.0 and 7.9 for a 4 year period dont come much better than that.

 

 

There are definitely examples, but they are relatively rare and they usually involve injuries. Some may involve the "interesting" '90's and early 00's where players got mysteriously better in their mid 30's, etc.  Schilling's early career with the Orioles is weird because it stretched over three or so years, but he only threw 69 innings total for the team. That 5.9 was his first year as a starter (He only had 5 career big league starts before that year! Both Houston and the Orioles were pretty dumb). So you can argue that even Schilling isn't that off the mark because he was studly as soon as a team used him as a starter, but he may be a good comp in ways to Bundy. 

 

p.s. And I guess my point is that it is not clear if time to "learn the craft" really plays a role. It's usually injuries or the like. Jamie Moyer might be one extreme example of "craft" development later in his career.  

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

There are definitely examples, but they are relatively rare and they usually involve injuries. Some may involve the "interesting" '90's and early 00's where players got mysteriously better in their mid 30's, etc.  Schilling's early career with the Orioles is weird because it stretched over three or so years, but he only threw 69 innings total for the team. That 5.9 was his first year as a starter (He only had 5 career big league starts before that year! Both Houston and the Orioles were pretty dumb). So you can argue that even Schilling isn't that off the mark because he was studly as soon as a team used him as a starter, but he may be a good comp in ways to Bundy. 

Some guys developed later in life.

Look at Arrieta and how his pitched here and then up with a 8.7 WAR with the cubs before coming back down to earth.

Randy Johnson didnt hit Ace status until he was 29.

Took Scherezer 4 seasons before hitting a 4.2.

[Ohfan67]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Some guys developed later in life.

Look at Arrieta and how his pitched here and then up with a 8.7 WAR with the cubs before coming back down to earth.

Randy Johnson didnt hit Ace status until he was 29.

Took Scherezer 4 seasons before hitting a 4.2.

Very good examples. I am often completely full of baloney and I'm willing to concede that this may be an example.  

[Ohfan67]

2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Some guys developed later in life.

Look at Arrieta and how his pitched here and then up with a 8.7 WAR with the cubs before coming back down to earth.

Randy Johnson didnt hit Ace status until he was 29.

Took Scherezer 4 seasons before hitting a 4.2.

Schilling might be a really good comp for Arrieta...both needed a change of scenery and a chance to let it go as a starter (unless I'm forgetting an early injury for Schilling?). 

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Ohfan67 said:

Very good examples. I am often completely full of baloney and I'm willing to concede that this may be an example.  

Thats normally my case, but there is enough Aces out there, that they line on both sides of this discussion.

The Rocket was an ace in just his 3rd year and didnt look back and like many others.

It took Corey Kluber 4 seasons.

So really there is hope for Bundy.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

Schilling might be a really good comp for Arrieta...both needed a change of scenery and a chance to let it go as a starter (unless I'm forgetting an early injury for Schilling?). 

Houston didnt have much faith in him, either

I dont remember any Oriole fan regretting losing Schilling.

Come along year 5 of pro ball and presto.