What are the odds of a modest Chris Davis comeback in 2018?

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, phillyOs119 said:

His 2 best seasons at the plate, 2013 and 2015, happen to also be the two seasons he pulled the ball the most.

Wow...would have never guessed this.   Seems to me that he gives up lots of ABs trying to pull outside pitches.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

I would like to know if the Orioles hitting coach has been working with Chris this off season. He lives in Texas just like Chris does. I believe Chris's wife had a baby last off season. I wonder if that disrupted Chris's off season routine at all. Chris better be working his butt off this off season.

[Frobby]

I don’t believe he has an eyesight problem, at least in the conventional sense.    That’s way too easy to test and correct.    If that had been the problem, I’m sure it would have been dealt with during the season.    

Now, if he’s having trouble tracking pitches thrown at 75-100 mph, that’s a different issue.     I’m not sure there’s much one can do to correct that.    I remember that when Davis was busted for using Adderall without a TUE, he said he’d been having trouble focusing on the ball.   It was unclear to me whether he meant concentration-type focus or seeing-type focus.    He got a TUE for Vyvanse before the 2015 season, which certainly seemed to work fine for him then.  So I don’t really think that’s the issue, either.

A better explanation may be that Davis has lost some bat speed and is having to make decisions about whether to swing earlier in the flight of the ball, and is just guessing rather than really identifying the pitches and their likely locations.   

[Luke-OH]

My eyes tell me it's bat speed.  There seems to be some data to back that up.

2015: .797 SLG vs Four Seam Fastballs

2016: .581 SLG vs Four Seam Fastballs

2017: .419 SLG vs Four Seam Fastballs

So over the last three seasons his results against the highest velocity pitch type have decreased rapidly.

[Redskins Rick]

4 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

My eyes tell me it's bat speed.  There seems to be some data to back that up.

2015: .797 SLG vs Four Seam Fastballs

2016: .581 SLG vs Four Seam Fastballs

2017: .419 SLG vs Four Seam Fastballs

So over the last three seasons his results against the highest velocity pitch type have decreased rapidly.

2016 - Hand Injury

2017 - Oblique

If he can get back to 100% healthy, maybe his SLG go back up somer?

[mdbdotcom]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

2016 - Hand Injury

2017 - Oblique

If he can get back to 100% healthy, maybe his SLG go back up somer?

Or, maybe if he gets two or three years younger. 

Chris turns 32 in March. Does bat speed ever improve at that age (without drugs)?

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Or, maybe if he gets two or three years younger. 

Chris turns 32 in March. Does bat speed ever improve at that age (without drugs)?

Ripken had the fastest bat speed at age 40, then the rest of MLB.

32 isn't all that old.

[mdbdotcom]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Ripken had the fastest bat speed at age 40, then the rest of MLB.

32 isn't all that old.

Cal Ripken was a HOF ballplayer. Chris Davis is not. Comparing the two is a bad joke. Maybe you should work for Boras.

 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Ripken had the fastest bat speed at age 40, then the rest of MLB.

32 isn't all that old.

Second time you’ve said this, but I’ve found nothing on the internet to support it.      Do you know what the source is?

[jabba72]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Second time you’ve said this, but I’ve found nothing on the internet to support it.      Do you know what the source is?

i remember a Sunday night baseball game on ESPN and Ripken had the fastest bat speed being recorded during that game, but league wide I dont know. 

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Second time you’ve said this, but I’ve found nothing on the internet to support it.      Do you know what the source is?

I wish, back in 2001, I was watching ESPN televised game, instead of HTS, and they were playing with their new radar gun measuring bat speed, and its what the announcers told us the audience.

This wasn't SOB, speed off the bat, either, which ESPN's hittracker does now.

 

[Luke-OH]

I find it hard to believe it was the whole league, Ripken had a quick bat, but watch Gary Sheffield.

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

Actually I am HOPING that at least part of his problems are vision related because that is something that can be corrected.

I'm not optimistic, but that's the hope.  When so many fat middle pitches went by without so much as a twitch, there can really only be three explanations;

1) vision

2) psychological/confidence related

3) he KNOWS that he is incapable of catching up to pitches that he used to be able to plaster, so he keeps the bat on his shoulder

If it's all #3, we are doomed.

If #1 and #2 are significant factors, at least there is hope for correction.

When he's looking breaking/off-speed he's got no chance at adjusting and fighting off a good fastball.  That is why you don't see the bat leave the shoulder.  Vice versa when he is looking fastball and gets a breaking pitch you see the flaiing swings and misses. 

I don't have the stats to back it up but you see Chris watch the fastball go by a lot more than the breaking/off-speed pitch.  It's a bat speed issue and he's just guessing at the plate with zero ability to adjust.  So I think we are doomed unless he makes some major adjustments to his swing. 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, phillyOs119 said:

I find it hard to believe it was the whole league, Ripken had a quick bat, but watch Gary Sheffield.

Now adays everything is on youtube.

One of the two announcers was finding it hard to believe that at 40 Rip was faster than anybody else.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I find it hard to believe it was the whole league, Ripken had a quick bat, but watch Gary Sheffield.

I’m very skeptical.     I’m not skeptical that Redskins Rick heard it, but I doubt what he heard is true.