Wieters credited with helping Nats Pitching

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Yea I have a hard time thinking all of that is total coincidence.  Curious to see a similar analysis for the O's in 2016?

In 2016, the O’s were 69-55 when Wieters started, 20-18 when he didn’t.    The team had a 3.98 ERA when Wieters caught, 4.74 when he didn’t (4.28 for Joseph, 6.35 for Pena).     But in 2015, the team’s ERA was lower with Joseph (3.65) than with Wieters (4.38), and in 2014, both Joseph (3.00) and Hundley (3.34) were lower than Wieters (3.88).     CERA stats are very noisy.     

[bpilktree67]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

78-35 when he started, 19-30 when he didn’t.    3.61 ERA when Wieters caught, 4.47 when he didn’t.    Both those things could be coincidences, but they do give some evidence that he called games well.

Yet their team Era went up last year compared to this year.  They had a team ERA of 3.51 and 3.88.  Even if you look at games caught by Wieters to 2016 it still went up.   That was with Stras just pitching insane the second half of year.  

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Yet their team Era went up last year compared to this year.  They had a team ERA of 3.51 and 3.88.  Even if you look at games caught by Wieters to 2016 it still went up.   That was with Stras just pitching insane the second half of year.  

Don’t forget that the ERA of the league as a whole went up by 0.17 runs/game.   Factor that in and Wieters did a little better relative to the league than the Nats’ catchers did in 2016, but the difference is pretty trivial.    

The bigger question is what happened to Jose Lobaton in 2017.   He had a 3.57 CERA in 2016, 4.48 in 2017.   His OPS dropped from .692 to .525. 

[maybenxtyr]

28 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

You can't.

But, there has been so much mud thrown on Wieters and some of it unfairly, that I do believe there has to have been some impact felt.

I don't know of many instances where he was criticized as a game caller. Most of the critics were not impressed with his offense. I may be remembering incorrectly though. 

[OriolesMagic83]

No catcher could save last year's pitching staff.  I don't think Johnny Bench (or any other catcher) could turn Miley, Ubaldo, and Tillman into major league starters.

[Redskins Rick]

5 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I don't know of many instances where he was criticized as a game caller. Most of the critics were not impressed with his offense. I may be remembering incorrectly though. 

Yes, I get the criticism of his bat, he never had the bat, they thought he had, when they drafted him as #1.

But, yes, many posters was very critical of his behind the plate, pitching framing, pitch selection, etc.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

No catcher could save last year's pitching staff.  I don't think Johnny Bench (or any other catcher) could turn Miley, Ubaldo, and Tillman into major league starters.

Miley: 4.06 with Joseph (13 starts) 6.80 with Castillo (19).

Jimenez: 5.88 with Joseph (18 games), 8.36 with Castillo (14).

Tillman:  6.85 with Joseph (6 games), 9.53 with Castillo (13).

Obviously Jimenez and Tillman stunk no matter who caught them, but they were a lot worse when Castillo caught them.    Miley was actually respectable when Joseph caught him, but awful when Castillo caught him.    Gausman and Hellickson also were much worse for Castillo (7.53/7.45) than  Joseph (2.62/6.35).    Only Bundy did better with Castillo, and that was by a small amount (4.06 vs. 4.64).

[Beef Supreme]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

I don't know of many instances where he was criticized as a game caller. Most of the critics were not impressed with his offense. I may be remembering incorrectly though.

Rick is right: the complaints were centered on pitch-framing metrics. Other defensive criticisms were leveled, also. But nobody on OH was bothering to criticize him for his offensive production; the forum understood who he was and who he was not with the bat.

And while nobody could have helped Tillman, from early last season I had the feeling that Gausman, especially, and the pitching staff as a whole had been significantly downgraded with Castillo behind the plate. Sure, the Orioles did the right thing by not signing Wieters to a multi-year contract. But Castillo at catcher rather than Wieters was probably the difference that most impacted the team from 2016 to 2017.

Now, go sign Alex Avila. He is far superior defensively to Welington, despite what the metrics might have you believe.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Beef Supreme said:

Rick is right: the complaints were centered on pitch-framing metrics. Other defensive criticisms were leveled, also. But nobody on OH was bothering to criticize him for his offensive production; the forum understood who he was and who he was not with the bat.

And while nobody could have helped Tillman, from early last season I had the feeling that Gausman, especially, and the pitching staff as a whole had been significantly downgraded with Castillo behind the plate. Sure, the Orioles did the right thing by not signing Wieters to a multi-year contract. But Castillo at catcher rather than Wieters was probably the difference that most impacted the team from 2016 to 2017.

Now, go sign Alex Avila. He is far superior defensively to Welington, despite what the metrics might have you believe.

Thanks and good post.

I understood the logistics and like when Cakes left, it wasn't easy, but at some point, not worth the ROI if they were kept.

Wonder how Dempsey would have fared here, if they had that same level of sabermetrics around/

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

The Orioles were smart to let Matt go. I am glad that Matt left when he did.

[atomic]

 

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

78-35 when he started, 19-30 when he didn’t.    3.61 ERA when Wieters caught, 4.47 when he didn’t.    Both those things could be coincidences, but they do give some evidence that he called games well.

Was this with the Orioles?  Could it  be that Joseph caught Ubaldo a lot more?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, cimota said:

 

Was this with the Orioles?  Could it  be that Joseph caught Ubaldo a lot more?

You need to go back and read the thread.   No, the stats you quoted were not with the Orioles, they were with the Nats last year.    In a different post, I compared Wieters with Joseph in 2014-16.    Wieters had the better CERA than Joseph in 2016, but Joseph was better in 2014-15.    Overall I don’t think the difference between them was significant.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The usual BS of pitchers complimenting their catcher.   Wieters is no genius at calling a game. As has been shown, there were years when Joseph was better.  

I remember Beef being called a genius game caller based off of one game when he had Bundy throw his slider a bunch.

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I remember Beef being called a genius game caller based off of one game when he had Bundy throw his slider a bunch.

Rick Dempsey was absolutely in love with Castillo’s game calling early in the year, then got curiously silent once they started getting bombarded in mid-May.    I’m not someone who assigns much meaning to CERA differentials of half or three-quarters of a run over a season — but when I see differentials of 2.5 runs or more for four of the of the original five starters, and more than a run for the starter who joined the team in August, it’s just not something I can assign to random chance.    I guess the proof will be in the pudding this year, especially with Gausman, whose differential between the two catchers was nearly 5 runs a game.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Pitchers can shake off catchers.  The numbers look bad for Castillo but I don't believe he could be that bad and it could make that much difference.  Meaning that randomness and bad luck are involved. 

I’m sure there is always some randomness and luck involved, but that’s too extreme for me to believe those were the main factors here.    And sure pitchers can shake off catchers, but (1) they don’t like to do it too often, and (2) when they’re not on the same page, it undermines their conviction on what they’re throwing.