Roch's latest blog is seriously depressing

[OriolesMagic83]

Tillman is going to be the O's #3 starter.  I'm calling it.  He's a nugget and a competitor and a winner (sarcasm).

[esmd]

1 hour ago, TradeAngelos said:

The Orioles have done this exact thing that allegedly doesn't exist anymore, and have been in playoff contention or in the playoffs for the last 6 years. This ridiculous notion that you need to lose 100 before you can win 90 is patently absurd, and not based in the slightest bit of reality. 

 

2011 Baltimore Orioles

Record: 69–93 (.426)

 

I don't know why this is so hard for you to acknowledge or why you need to be borderline insulting with others who disagree with you, but the Orioles were a horrible team in 2011 and previous years.  They're already in the suck and then get better model, though maybe not to the extend that HOU and CHC were.  But still, there ya go.  Then they hot on guys like Jones, Tillman, Chen, Gonzalez, Davis, Johnson and later Britton, Machado, Schoop, etc,, and a winning nucleus was born.  This co-incided with a somewhat down period for NYY and Boston where the Orioles and then the Blue Jays were able to top the division.

 

The problem is, that period is over now.  Tillman, Chen, and Gonzo are gone.  Davis has regressed, Britton is hurt and a pending FA.  Jones is regressing and a pending FA.  We all know the Machado deal.  This groups window is closing rapidly.  And co-incidenally, the Red Sox and NYY have reloaded in a big way, and look poised to dominate the division for the next 3-5 years.  So for the Orioles, the clear path forward is to either load up and go for one last hurrah this year, then rebuild, or just bite the bullet now and rebuild.  But continuing to bring in mediocre (i.e. cheap) starting pitching to go along with an aging, declining core that will soon their best player, is a recipe for 3rd-5th place, and a missed opportunity to utilize your veteran assets to rebuild while many of them still have some value.

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, TradeAngelos said:

The Orioles have done this exact thing that allegedly doesn't exist anymore, and have been in playoff contention or in the playoffs for the last 6 years. This ridiculous notion that you need to lose 100 before you can win 90 is patently absurd, and not based in the slightest bit of reality. 

From 2007 to 2012 the Orioles draft positions overall were 5, 4, 5, 3, 4, 4.  They are the embodiment of sink hard before you swim.  Its not necessary to lose 100 every year, but 90 is a good start.

[LC_O's_87]

1 hour ago, TradeAngelos said:

The Orioles have done this exact thing that allegedly doesn't exist anymore, and have been in playoff contention or in the playoffs for the last 6 years. This ridiculous notion that you need to lose 100 before you can win 90 is patently absurd, and not based in the slightest bit of reality. 

(1) You are talking about the team that had one of the longest runs of futility in modern baseball history.  There were at least 3 semi-rebuilds that failed; 1 "reload" that had the team in contention for a half season; and the rest you depressing sub-standard teams with little chance of contention.  exactly the outcome that the poster you quoted suggests will happen again.

(2)  Before those 6 years of contention, they were awful.   Macphail did a rebuild going into 2008, trading the club's best pitcher Bedard and their (declining) best hitter Tejada.  He then traded Ramon Hernandez after 2008 They didn't hide the fact they were rebuilding.

Of course, Angelos wouldn't let him  Macphail do a full tear-down and offload a lot of other guys who the club held onto for too long.  Perhaps that's why it took them another 4 years to get competitive.

Fact remains that the team wasn't pulled out of their death spiral until they traded their premium players for prospects and actually hit on some draft picks.....IE the exact formula you just discounted.

  

[SteveA]

4 hours ago, esmd said:

 

2011 Baltimore Orioles

Record: 69–93 (.426)

 

I don't know why this is so hard for you to acknowledge or why you need to be borderline insulting with others who disagree with you, but the Orioles were a horrible team in 2011 and previous years.  They're already in the suck and then get better model, though maybe not to the extend that HOU and CHC were.  But still, there ya go.  Then they hot on guys like Jones, Tillman, Chen, Gonzalez, Davis, Johnson and later Britton, Machado, Schoop, etc,, and a winning nucleus was born.  This co-incided with a somewhat down period for NYY and Boston where the Orioles and then the Blue Jays were able to top the division.

 

The problem is, that period is over now.  Tillman, Chen, and Gonzo are gone.  Davis has regressed, Britton is hurt and a pending FA.  Jones is regressing and a pending FA.  We all know the Machado deal.  This groups window is closing rapidly.  And co-incidenally, the Red Sox and NYY have reloaded in a big way, and look poised to dominate the division for the next 3-5 years.  So for the Orioles, the clear path forward is to either load up and go for one last hurrah this year, then rebuild, or just bite the bullet now and rebuild.  But continuing to bring in mediocre (i.e. cheap) starting pitching to go along with an aging, declining core that will soon their best player, is a recipe for 3rd-5th place, and a missed opportunity to utilize your veteran assets to rebuild while many of them still have some value.

Honestly, at this point, given what we know:

   -- they "tried" to trade Manny, didn't, and don't appear to be actively trying now or even talking

   -- they won't sign a pitcher to a 4+ year deal

At this point, we know, they are going to "bring in mediocre starting pitching", as you say.   They won't be doing it to try to contend (regardless of what they say), they will be doing it to put bodies with a pulse on the mound after Gausman and Bundy.

Even the Astros during their bad time found some veteran warm bodies to pitch... 34 year old Erik Bedard, 30 year old Philip Humber, 33 year old Wandy Rodriguez, etc.

So I wouldn't overreact when we sign Vargas or Cashner or Tillman and say how stupid they are trying to "win" this year with those guys.   They are simply placeholders because we do not have the 6 or 7 warm bodies you actually need to fill out a rotation.

Don't sweat it.   We're going to suck this year.    But we are not going to go to war with a rotation that includes at least 3 of Castro, Cortes,  Ynoa, and Wright.   We'll get SOMEONE.   Probably 2 someones.   It won't be someone good enough to contend with, unless we catch lightning in a bottle like Texas did with Cashner last year, and we probably have to do that TWICE.     But all the "rebuild purists" who want a complete rebuild with scorched earth trading policy of dumping all veterans for youth, will be throwing a fit when we sign some mediocre ML pitcher for 1 year $5 million, especially when DD & Buck publicly talk about "trying to contend", which will be just lip service cuz what else are they gonna say?

It's time to have a zen attitude about it and accept what you cannot change.   An investment in a low-rent starter or two for this year, maybe even a 2 year deal, doesn't mean they are in denial or that they are adding 5 years to the time it will take to rebuild.   It's inevitable, that's all.   They still have a responsibility to field a major league team.

[davearm]

6 hours ago, SteveA said:

Honestly, at this point, given what we know:

   -- they "tried" to trade Manny, didn't, and don't appear to be actively trying now or even talking

   -- they won't sign a pitcher to a 4+ year deal

At this point, we know, they are going to "bring in mediocre starting pitching", as you say.   They won't be doing it to try to contend (regardless of what they say), they will be doing it to put bodies with a pulse on the mound after Gausman and Bundy.

Even the Astros during their bad time found some veteran warm bodies to pitch... 34 year old Erik Bedard, 30 year old Philip Humber, 33 year old Wandy Rodriguez, etc.

So I wouldn't overreact when we sign Vargas or Cashner or Tillman and say how stupid they are trying to "win" this year with those guys.   They are simply placeholders because we do not have the 6 or 7 warm bodies you actually need to fill out a rotation.

Don't sweat it.   We're going to suck this year.    But we are not going to go to war with a rotation that includes at least 3 of Castro, Cortes,  Ynoa, and Wright.   We'll get SOMEONE.   Probably 2 someones.   It won't be someone good enough to contend with, unless we catch lightning in a bottle like Texas did with Cashner last year, and we probably have to do that TWICE.     But all the "rebuild purists" who want a complete rebuild with scorched earth trading policy of dumping all veterans for youth, will be throwing a fit when we sign some mediocre ML pitcher for 1 year $5 million, especially when DD & Buck publicly talk about "trying to contend", which will be just lip service cuz what else are they gonna say?

It's time to have a zen attitude about it and accept what you cannot change.   An investment in a low-rent starter or two for this year, maybe even a 2 year deal, doesn't mean they are in denial or that they are adding 5 years to the time it will take to rebuild.   It's inevitable, that's all.   They still have a responsibility to field a major league team.

Well said.  And every once in a while, those veteran low-rent starters get flipped at the deadline for Jake Arrieta.

[FanSince88]

I don't understand why this team wouldn't strongly consider signing a Vargas or Cashner.  You can probably get either one of those guys for a 2 or 3 year deal.  They're not world-beaters.  Even if we aren't contending this year and next, we still need people to eat innings so we don't blow out every bullpen arm and/or throw minor league SPs to the wolves.

[FanSince88]

On 1/26/2018 at 11:37 AM, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

I don't want Cashner or Vargas. Therefore, I will be extremely happy if we don't sign them. We need impact starting pitchers. We don't just need a warm body. The Orioles could resign Ubaldo if they want a warm body.

Cashner and Vargas aren't great, but I guarantee the would be better and more consistent than erratic Ubaldo.  Whether we contend or not, someone needs to eat innings.  

[Os84]

3 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

I don't understand why this team wouldn't strongly consider signing a Vargas or Cashner.  You can probably get either one of those guys for a 2 or 3 year deal.  They're not world-beaters.  Even if we aren't contending this year and next, we still need people to eat innings so we don't blow out every bullpen arm and/or throw minor league SPs to the wolves.

I think they have, but probably weren't satisfied with the medicals to offer any more than a 1 or 2 year deal. I'm guessing both are asking for at least 3 years.

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, FanSince88 said:

I don't understand why this team wouldn't strongly consider signing a Vargas or Cashner.  You can probably get either one of those guys for a 2 or 3 year deal.  They're not world-beaters.  Even if we aren't contending this year and next, we still need people to eat innings so we don't blow out every bullpen arm and/or throw minor league SPs to the wolves.

Who said they aren't considering it?

Those guys aren't going to sign until the big guns have signed.

[esmd]

15 hours ago, SteveA said:

Honestly, at this point, given what we know:

   -- they "tried" to trade Manny, didn't, and don't appear to be actively trying now or even talking

   -- they won't sign a pitcher to a 4+ year deal

At this point, we know, they are going to "bring in mediocre starting pitching", as you say.   They won't be doing it to try to contend (regardless of what they say), they will be doing it to put bodies with a pulse on the mound after Gausman and Bundy.

Even the Astros during their bad time found some veteran warm bodies to pitch... 34 year old Erik Bedard, 30 year old Philip Humber, 33 year old Wandy Rodriguez, etc.

So I wouldn't overreact when we sign Vargas or Cashner or Tillman and say how stupid they are trying to "win" this year with those guys.   They are simply placeholders because we do not have the 6 or 7 warm bodies you actually need to fill out a rotation.

Don't sweat it.   We're going to suck this year.    But we are not going to go to war with a rotation that includes at least 3 of Castro, Cortes,  Ynoa, and Wright.   We'll get SOMEONE.   Probably 2 someones.   It won't be someone good enough to contend with, unless we catch lightning in a bottle like Texas did with Cashner last year, and we probably have to do that TWICE.     But all the "rebuild purists" who want a complete rebuild with scorched earth trading policy of dumping all veterans for youth, will be throwing a fit when we sign some mediocre ML pitcher for 1 year $5 million, especially when DD & Buck publicly talk about "trying to contend", which will be just lip service cuz what else are they gonna say?

It's time to have a zen attitude about it and accept what you cannot change.   An investment in a low-rent starter or two for this year, maybe even a 2 year deal, doesn't mean they are in denial or that they are adding 5 years to the time it will take to rebuild.   It's inevitable, that's all.   They still have a responsibility to field a major league team.

The problem with that scenario is they are still wasting the opportunity to move guys with value for prospects who can help them in the future and form a new nucleus.  Guys like Jones, Machado, Brach, Britton (pre-injury and if he gets back in time for the trading deadline) have value and can bring back vital prospects in return.

Signing someone like Vargas, Cashner, or Tillman is all well and good, but as you say, they're going to be an also ran with or without them.  I'd rather them go with Cortes, Castro, Wright, etc.  Maybe we get lucky and one of those guys figures it out and can be a part of the next nucleus.  But Vargas, Cashner, and Tillman sure aren't.

[25 Nuggets]

21 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Tillman is going to be the O's #3 starter.  I'm calling it.  He's a nugget and a competitor and a winner (sarcasm).

well, he used to be. 

Your 2018 Baltimore Orioles - living in the recent past

[FanSince88]

4 hours ago, esmd said:

The problem with that scenario is they are still wasting the opportunity to move guys with value for prospects who can help them in the future and form a new nucleus.  Guys like Jones, Machado, Brach, Britton (pre-injury and if he gets back in time for the trading deadline) have value and can bring back vital prospects in return.

Signing someone like Vargas, Cashner, or Tillman is all well and good, but as you say, they're going to be an also ran with or without them.  I'd rather them go with Cortes, Castro, Wright, etc.  Maybe we get lucky and one of those guys figures it out and can be a part of the next nucleus.  But Vargas, Cashner, and Tillman sure aren't.

The thing is, if Cortes/Castro/Wright can't give you innings (and odds are high that at least two of those three will be so abysmal they can't regularly make it out of the 3rd inning), then SOMEONE has to eat the roughly 500-600 innings that you would want to get out of your 3rd through 5th starters.  Unless you want to get your entire bullpen injured, feed Sedlock or some other A ball pitcher to the wolves and destroy his confidence, and/or rush Harvey back and likely get him re-injured. 

Hence, it makes sense to sign one or two of these mid-tier guys to a low-commitment deal.  I'm fine leaving the 5th slot only up to an open competition between Cortes/Castro/Wright.  Or if Cortes and Castro are both lighting it up in the pen, then sure, swap them into the rotation and Vargas/Cashner/Tillman out.  If the low commitment free agent stinks, his contract will be cheap enough that you can still DFA him and not feel awful about it.  

[esmd]

53 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

The thing is, if Cortes/Castro/Wright can't give you innings (and odds are high that at least two of those three will be so abysmal they can't regularly make it out of the 3rd inning), then SOMEONE has to eat the roughly 500-600 innings that you would want to get out of your 3rd through 5th starters.  Unless you want to get your entire bullpen injured, feed Sedlock or some other A ball pitcher to the wolves and destroy his confidence, and/or rush Harvey back and likely get him re-injured. 

Hence, it makes sense to sign one or two of these mid-tier guys to a low-commitment deal.  I'm fine leaving the 5th slot only up to an open competition between Cortes/Castro/Wright.  Or if Cortes and Castro are both lighting it up in the pen, then sure, swap them into the rotation and Vargas/Cashner/Tillman out.  If the low commitment free agent stinks, his contract will be cheap enough that you can still DFA him and not feel awful about it.  

Fair enough, but do that, AND move your veterans that have value for prospects, and be honest about what it is, a rebuild on the fly while still attempting to be somewhat competitive.  But don't sign those guys, and try and tell me that you're legitimately trying to compete with Boston and NYY and win a WS.  Cuz that dog just ain't gonna hunt.

[ArtVanDelay]

On 1/29/2018 at 12:27 PM, TradeAngelos said:

and have been in playoff contention or in the playoffs for the last 6 years.

Wat