Fangraphs poll: O’s will have the fourth-fewest wins over the next five years

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm looking forward to baseball season because...well, baseball and everything that comes with it.  Warmer weather, longer days, etc.

Can't say I'm looking forward to the Orioles this year, though.  Don't get me wrong, I'm still going to watch as much as I can but there's no reason to get excited about them as a team for the foreseeable future.

 

 

I always start strong in April just to see what the vibe of the team is. I don't expect I'll be tuning in as regularly in May or June. 

[gmelson26]

We play is what's probably the hardest division in baseball.  We came in last in our division the previous year.  We've done absolutely nothing in the offseason.  Our core is basically gone at the end of the year.  Our farm system is in the bottom half of the league, arguably the bottom 1/3.  MASN deal isn't looking too good for us.  And I haven't mentioned the seeming lack of a plan from the FO/ownership.

They might end up being completely wrong with the prediction, but can you blame anyone at all for putting out there as probably one of the worse teams in the next few years?

 

PS.  I love baseball and cannot wait for the season to start!

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

You would think a team that finished last would get a top 10 pick.

Or eleventh.

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, gmelson26 said:

We play is what's probably the hardest division in baseball.  We came in last in our division the previous year.  We've done absolutely nothing in the offseason.  Our core is basically gone at the end of the year.  Our farm system is in the bottom half of the league, arguably the bottom 1/3.  MASN deal isn't looking too good for us.  And I haven't mentioned the seeming lack of a plan from the FO/ownership.

They might end up being completely wrong with the prediction, but can you blame anyone at all for putting out there as probably one of the worse teams in the next few years?

 

PS.  I love baseball and cannot wait for the season to start!

Bad baseball > no baseball.

[TheBee]

7 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Falls under the "who knows" category for me.  But, given how Fangraphs and others have consistently underrated the O's expected wins over the last 5-6 years, I would not be surprised if this poll would have had the same results (re:  the Orioles) if it had been taken in 2011.  And, it would have been wildly wrong.  The farm has improved and pitching is beginning to get to the higher levels of the system.  So, we could very well see a resurgence in the 2020 timeframe, IMO.

The first three sentences are exactly right.  Even in 2014 when we went to the AL Championship, I had to listen to people predicting our coming death spiral all season. I don't know what will happen in the next few seasons,  but these poll results were surely predictable.

[Tx Oriole]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Team finished in last the prior season and seemingly refuses to rebuild or reload.  Sounds about right.

I agree with you.

[Tx Oriole]

7 hours ago, esmd said:

Eh, 5 years is a long time.  1-2years?  Okay.  But 5?  Just throwing stuff against the wall, IMO.

I just don't see them winning.

[esmd]

A lot can happen in 5 years.  Did any of us see them winning in 2012 back in 2007, 2008, 2009, etc.?  Look, they've got a great manager, they've got some young talent arriving at the ML level with some more behind it (Mancini, Bundy, Gausman, Schoop, Mountcastle, Hays, Sisco, Harvey, etc.).  A lot can happen in five years.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, esmd said:

A lot can happen in 5 years.  Did any of us see them winning in 2012 back in 2007, 2008, 2009, etc.?  Look, they've got a great manager, they've got some young talent arriving at the ML level with some more behind it (Mancini, Bundy, Gausman, Schoop, Mountcastle, Hays, Sisco, Harvey, etc.).  A lot can happen in five years.

Buck is only under contact for 2018.

[interloper]

To me, 3 years feels like the maximum project-able length of time for baseball teams. Anything more than that is fairly ridiculous. So much can change in 3 years for a team. 

That said, no one should find fault with the Orioles being projected to suck for a bunch of years. Especially with questions looming at GM and manager, and the constant owner question. And of course, the dearth of pitching prospects in the minors.

[NCRaven]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Buck is only under contact for 2018.

The new philosophy is that managers only exist to coddle personalities and execute the instructions from the analytics departments for lineup construction and defensive shifts.  More and more teams are hiring younger managers with little experience who will follow the script.

So, Buck doesn't matter.

[esmd]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Buck is only under contact for 2018.

Understand that.  I expect him to sign a new contract, but we'll see I guess.  Not so sure about DD but we'll see with that too..