Worse contract-Hosmer or Davis

[wildbillhiccup]

42 minutes ago, atomic said:

Heyward stats per free agency are pretty similar to Machado.   So I don't see why you would think he would get more especially since trend is declining contracts.   If he gets 250 million hopefully it will be from Yankees so they can be stuck with a bad contract.

Just stop.

[24fps]

Watching the speed, intensity and unfettered joy derived from affixing blame makes me realize we're really not that far removed from cavemen after all.

[sangar]

Given their bone structure, I'll bet a Neanderthal could hit a baseball pretty far. Wouldn't be much of a baserunner though.

[bpilktree67]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Heyward stats per free agency are pretty similar to Machado.   So I don't see why you would think he would get more especially since trend is declining contracts.   If he gets 250 million hopefully it will be from Yankees so they can be stuck with a bad contract.

Hayward hit .283 with 13 homers 60 RBI and got 200 million.   If you take Heywards last three years before signing with Cubs.  This is his numbers. 38 homers 156 RBI 220 runs .277 average .754 ops  82 doubles.  Manny last three years 105 homers 277 RBI 287 runs .280 ave .840 ops 103 doubles.  Yeah very similar only a small 67 homers less 121 RBI less 67 runs less average just .003. Ops .86 less doubles 21 less.  I can barely see the difference in the two.

[atomic]

55 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Hayward hit .283 with 13 homers 60 RBI and got 200 million.   If you take Heywards last three years before signing with Cubs.  This is his numbers. 38 homers 156 RBI 220 runs .277 average .754 ops  82 doubles.  Manny last three years 105 homers 277 RBI 287 runs .280 ave .840 ops 103 doubles.  Yeah very similar only a small 67 homers less 121 RBI less 67 runs less average just .003. Ops .86 less doubles 21 less.  I can barely see the difference in the two.

Last 3 years 17.3 WAR Vs 16.4 WAR.   Seems pretty similar.   

[Going Underground]

8 hours ago, sangar said:

Given their bone structure, I'll bet a Neanderthal could hit a baseball pretty far. Wouldn't be much of a baserunner though.

More important that the ball comes put of his hand well.

[weams]

11 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The Padres giving Hosmer an 8 year deal has to be one of the worst long term deals ever.  It's right up there with Davis's deal.  At least the O's had the excuse they were in their window of contention.  The Padres' best player, Myers, also plays 1B.  By the time the Padres are competitive, Hosmer will basically be James Loney.  Hosmer has had one year of a .850+ OPS.  At least with Davis, you could dream that he would have another .900 OPS year. 

Davis is done in five years. Hosmer, likely eight. 

[SeaBird]

The Davis contract is worse and remember the Orioles bid against themselves.

[weams]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

When exactly did Longoria hit the free agent market? 

Oh right, he signed team friendly deals instead of testing free agency.

 

1

To get his money at a much earlier age. In case, luck ran out. 

[weams]

 

[DrungoHazewood]

Hosmer has an established level of 2.7 WAR/season (last four weighted at 4, 3, 2, 1).  At $8M/win and assuming half a win of decline per season I see Hosmer's value at 4/66 or 5/73.  If for some reason you want him at eight years I don't see any real difference from five or six because he'll have declined to replacement level by then.  When Davis signed his deal that same analysis had him worth about 6/130, at $7M per win then.

It's pretty amazing that even today, with the data and metrics available, teams appear to sometimes pay for free agents as though last year will continue uninterrupted into the player's mid-to-late 30s.

[DrungoHazewood]

33 minutes ago, weams said:

Hosmer, likely eight. 

Is he Mark Grace, Tino Martinez, Pete O'Brien, Willie Upshaw, James Loney, Mike Jacobs, Ike Davis, Greg Walker, or Rico Brogna?  

21 first baseman with Hosmer's hitting numbers through 27, since 1980.  About four  or five of them would have been worth Hosmer's deal.  The median was Willie Upshaw, who played another 600 games with a .727 OPS.

[TommyPickles]

The Davis deal is worse. Hosmer is 28 and gets on base. 

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, TommyPickles said:

The Davis deal is worse. Hosmer is 28 and gets on base. 

The four years before Davis' deal his OBP was .342.  Hosmer, .350.  Over that same period Davis hit 159 homers and had a 132 OPS+, Hosmer 77 and 115.

You have a point that Hosmer's two year age difference could have an impact.  Neither deal is good, both teams will be happy with 50 cents on the dollar.

[DrungoHazewood]

Quick contest.  Ground rules: High dollar, long-term deal from the past where you couldn't make the tangibles add up to the dollar value.  But it seemed okay because he was a great guy, a clubhouse leader, the kind of person who everybody wants on their team.  Six or eight years later you look back and think, "wow, that really did work out well."

Name all of them you can think of.  Go.