Tillman back. Are we happy?

[accinfo]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If Duquette is done signing pitchers, then no.   I think this team is .500ish if things go reasonably well, but not a serious playoff contender.

I may be in the minority, but I’m not worried about a “long playoff run” right now.    I want to have a fun summer.   It’s possible Tillman could help make that happen, though it’s also quite possible he’ll be just as bad as last year.   

Agreed it they are done the Orioles would need a Castro or Wright do way better than any of us expect.  Tillman could be as bad as last year but if he is he will only get a month of being that bad not an entire season.  However, he would be someone if had the results he did since 2012 from any other organization in the American League East most people here would be killing Duquette if he didn't sign him.  We will see.  He is just turning 30 and I am sorry but I don't believe Buck Showalter isn't a good enough baseball person to taint his evaluation on his affection for Chris Tillman.  If this signing had been done in November then it could be questioned much more but they have seen him pitch this spring.

[FanSince88]

3 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Then I am not happy.  Get Lynn.  Or trade Machado.

This.

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d stated earlier that I’d like to sign Tillman if the guaranteed portion was $3 mm or less, so I’m fine with this deal, so long as the O’s are willing to walk away if they have to.    I feel $3 mm is a reasonable risk for a guy who could be worth $15 mm+ if he returns to form.    And yes, I realize he’ll make more than $3 mm if he’s effective, and that’s fine with me.

One question I have is whether the $3 mm is truly guaranteed, as reported, or whether the O’s could cut him on March 28 and pay only 45 days of termination pay.    My assumption is it’s the former, based on the report of his $3 mm “guarantee,” but I think reporters are sometimes loose with that term.   

I do not think that a $3 mm deal prevents us from picking up a better/less risky starter, and I hope they do.    You won’t hear me saying they couldn’t sign Lynn because of the Tillman deal.    

In any event, I hope Tillman’s healthy and can return to form.   I agree it’s not at all clear he’ll be able to do that, and we’ll see.

They cut bait with Gonzo for $5m. So maybe there’s hope with Tillman. But I have no confidence in the O’s to properly assess a starting pitcher when they signed Gallardo and kept him,  but cut bait with Gonzo even though he had an option remaining. Then he went on to pitch for the ChiSox and regain form in nearly short order whereas Gallardo was an utter disaster.

[Can_of_corn]

27 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

And to add to that, if the Orioles aren't competitive, it doesn't matter if Tillman somehow manages to return to peak form. He'll walk or be expensive after the season is over. This, like the Cashner move, smacks of trying to look like trying, but really just treading water for the next FO/manager.

At least if he puts up a four win season they can QO him.

But yea, this is just about the complete opposite of an inspiring move.

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

At least if he puts up a four win season they can QO him.

But yea, this is just about the complete opposite of an inspiring move.

Good point, I hadn't thought of that. I would say maybe he pitches well and you flip him at the deadline, but after last year I have less confidence in that happening.

[Yardball85]

2 hours ago, esmd said:

Consensus - we're happy as long as they sign another quality SP and relegate Tillman to competing for the 5th spot.

We are most definitely NOT happy if this is it and Tillman is penciled in as one of the top 4 starters.

This.  This really hits the nail on the head for everyone on here.

[Tony-OH]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If Duquette is done signing pitchers, then no.   I think this team is .500ish if things go reasonably well, but not a serious playoff contender.

I may be in the minority, but I’m not worried about a “long playoff run” right now.    I want to have a fun summer.   It’s possible Tillman could help make that happen, though it’s also quite possible he’ll be just as bad as last year.   

But this is the time of year the Orioles should be acquiring the talent that will make them a playoff contender, not just potentially marginally better than yesterday. If the Orioles go into the season with this starting rotation they are not trying to win, but rather trying to tread water for year and not to be horrible. That's the kind of thinking that got the Orioles 14 losing seasons in a row.

[Moose Milligan]

Such an eyeroll.  Not happy, not pissed.  Just more apathetic. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But this is the time of year the Orioles should be acquiring the talent that will make them a playoff contender, not just potentially marginally better than yesterday. If the Orioles go into the season wit this starting rotation they are not trying to win, but rather trying to tread water for year and try not to be horrible. That's the kind of thinking that got the Orioles 14 losing seasons in a row.

Just shows that Angelos learned nothing from the last time.

[Eddie_Ripken]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But this is the time of year the Orioles should be acquiring the talent that will make them a playoff contender, not just potentially marginally better than yesterday. If the Orioles go into the season wit this starting rotation they are not trying to win, but rather trying to tread water for year and try not to be horrible. That's the kind of thinking that got the Orioles 14 losing seasons in a row.

I don't feel like any move that DD has made since being here has been a move that screams "this is going to make the Orioles playoff contenders". Don't get me wrong, I am mostly satisfied with how Dan has handled having to work within the confines of Angelos and his scattered front office loyalties but I feel like every move Dan makes has to be a shrewd dumpster diving, lottery ticket move.

I am impressed with some of the performances he got out of some of those shrewd moves but again, the idea that he is allowed to make big moves that make a statement that they are going all in don't exist.

[Ripken]

Brittany Ghiroli‏Verified account @Britt_Ghiroli

Duquette said the Orioles are not done adding starting pitching, FWIW.

[Yardball85]

Red Sox are about to sign JD, per Heyman.  But hey, we got Tillman back! Take that, AL EAST!

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Ripken said:

Brittany Ghiroli‏Verified account @Britt_Ghiroli

Duquette said the Orioles are not done adding starting pitching, FWIW.

I'm pretty sure she meant to put quote marks around "starting pitching".

Also this:

Chris Tillman vs. the Yankees in 2017:

3 G, 7 IP, 18 H, 15 R, 15 ER, 5 BB, 3 K, 6 HR, 19.29 ERA

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But this is the time of year the Orioles should be acquiring the talent that will make them a playoff contender, not just potentially marginally better than yesterday. If the Orioles go into the season with this starting rotation they are not trying to win, but rather trying to tread water for year and not to be horrible. That's the kind of thinking that got the Orioles 14 losing seasons in a row.

I don’t disagree at all.    They need to sign/acquire one more starter, who IMO needs to be better than Cashner.    I’d be content with Cobb or Lynn.    

Do I expect that to happen?   Not really, but one can always hope.   And if it doesn’t happen, that doesn’t mean I’ll have given up all hope for this season.    It just means the odds will look very, very long.   

[bpilktree]

42 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's also consider this scary thought.

Dan Duquette thinks Tillman is better than his inhouse candidates to fill the last two spots in the rotation. If you say no this doesn't mean that, I'd give you the fact that he just guaranteed a guy who hasn't pitched well since early June 2016, five times more than any of his inhouse candidates will pitch for in 2018.

You keep saying that about 2018 and it is just not true.  This is his stat line each game from July on.

7Ip  5H 1ER 2BB 2k

7ip  3H 1ER 5BB 5K

7ip 4H 1ER 3BB 3K

7ip 4H 1ER 2BB 7K

5ip 9h 6ER 0BB 4K

6ip 5H 2ER 3BB 6k

6ip 7h 3Er 2BB 4k

7ip 5h 2ER 0BB 4k

2ip 6H 6 ER 5BB 0k

6ip 4H 1ER 1BB 4k

5.2ip 4H 3ER 1BB 6k

1.2ip 5H 3ER 3BB 2k

5.2ip 6H 1ER 3BB 2K

In his last 13 starts he had 8 quality starts 7 of them were great starts.  3 bad starts and 3 decent starts. 

4.1ip 4H 2ER 1BB 4k postseason.