Most important player for 2018?

[Frobby]

Which player do you think has the biggest impact on whether the O’s have another losing season or play pretty good baseball?

I could go a few different directions on this, but I’d say it’s Chris Tillman.   A full rebound by him would make a drastic improvement in our rotation, give us a lot of innings and solidify the rotation.    If he’s as bad as he was in 2017, or anywhere close to that bad, we’re pretty much doomed.     And if he’s in the middle — say, 5.00ish ERA like in 2015, that probably still puts us at .500 or below.    

There’s lots of other candidates, but to me as Tillman goes, so go the O’s.    And that may not be a good thing.  

[wildcard]

I see your point but in order for Tillman to be the most important player Bundy, Gausman and Cashner must pitch well.    I don't think there is a most important player.  There are bunch of them.

[weams]

I think Cashner is the most important. 

[NCRaven]

How about Chris Davis not being a black hole in the middle of the lineup?  But I think the most important Orioles this year will be the prospects: Sisco, Mountcastle, Harvey, Stewart, Mullins, Akin are the most important Orioles for...2019/2020, anyway.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I see your point but in order for Tillman to be the most important player Bundy, Gausman and Cashner must pitch well.    I don't think there is a most important player.  There are bunch of them.

I guess where I’m coming from is that the variability in Tillman’s possibile performance is very dramatic and high impact.    I don’t see Bundy, Gausman or Cashner as having nearly as high a risk of implosion as Tillman.  Obviously, that risk does exist with any pitcher, but it’s much higher with Tillman in light of last year.    And yet, we also know how good Tillman can be, and he’s a bulldog when he’s on his game.    

[Bahama O's Fan]

Whoever mans the missing spot in the rotation. Right now we have:

Bundy

Gausman

Cashner

Tillman

Wherever this last guy comes from, FA or young guy will be the most important

[Bahama O's Fan]

Sorry, hit send before I was finished.

If the last guy is a young AAAA type guy and we have to rely on Tillman to be the fourth guy, we could be screwed. If we sign Arrieta/Lynn/Cobb and Tillman drops to fifth, we will be doing good.

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess where I’m coming from is that the variability in Tillman’s possibile performance is very dramatic and high impact.    I don’t see Bundy, Gausman or Cashner as having nearly as high a risk of implosion as Tillman.  Obviously, that risk does exist with any pitcher, but it’s much higher with Tillman in light of last year.    And yet, we also know how good Tillman can be, and he’s a bulldog when he’s on his game.    

I see what you are saying and i think its makes the argument for signing Lynn or Cobb even greater.    If the O's had four experienced starters besides Tillman then he would just have to be better than the other 5th starter candidates like Cortes or Castro.   But as it is now there is no one with his experience on the club to replace him.

[Il BuonO]

1 minute ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Sorry, hit send before I was finished.

If the last guy is a young AAAA type guy and we have to rely on Tillman to be the fourth guy, we could be screwed. If we sign Arrieta/Lynn/Cobb and Tillman drops to fifth, we will be doing good.

More so than bad 2017 Tillman and a combination of Jimenez/Hellickson? Or, bad Miley?

I suspect the Rule 5 guys can pitch as well. If Tillman is serviceable it’s a win.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Sorry, hit send before I was finished.

If the last guy is a young AAAA type guy and we have to rely on Tillman to be the fourth guy, we could be screwed. If we sign Arrieta/Lynn/Cobb and Tillman drops to fifth, we will be doing good.

Glad you finished the post because I am making the sim point.

[Aristotelian]

Manny. But really a bunch of guys need to have career norm or better for us to be anywhere close.

[pastorfan]

I'd say Bundy. Does his arm explode? Does he become an ace? Or does he remain the same? I think he is most important.

[Il BuonO]

Tillman, as Frobby stated, could have the largest possible variable in performance. So, I like his choice there.

But how about Sisco? If Buck deems his defense satisfactory then he could have a huge impact with the bat. And as Luke noted in his Quick Hits, he looked good receiving and blocking the ball.

Other than that, the black hole of Davis and Trumbo could be important if both of them can somewhat slow their rate of decline. (Please Buck, don’t place them back to back in the lineup.)

[TheOtherRipken]

Zach Britton.

Last year we lost of whole slew of close games, year before we went into the playoffs on the back of winning close games (and then didn't use Britton in the WC game). It will be hard to start the year without him, and his value is continuously understated. 

[Moose Milligan]

On offense, I'd say Davis.  Can he get back to being solid?  

As far as pitching goes, I'd agree with Frobby's take on Tillman.  Rotation looks better if he can pitch to an ERA in the low 4's or even if he could somehow rebound to 2016 levels.