Something has to be done with Mark Trumbo

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, MikeAD said:

I understand why it looked so enticing to Angelos to, coming off the season(s) we had and after losing Cruz and seeing Cruz continue his success in Seattle. 

Unfortunately I think that may have influenced the decision to sign Davis.  You shouldn't let wild outliers guide your decision making.  Nelson Cruz just had the same offensive season that Hank Aaron did at 36.  If you're using that as a reference point you're going to be bitterly disappointed 99 times out of 100.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The Marcels projection for Trumbo is a .760 something OPS.  He'll presumably have no defensive or baserunning value to speak of.  That'll work out to half a win or maybe a win above replacement on the outside.  Davis' projection is an .805 OPS.  When he had an .827 in 2012 he was a 1.6 win player, but that was a lower run context and he DH'd a fair amount.  So let's go with 1.5 wins for him.  So I'd say the 75% confidence range for those two is 1-3 wins total.  For reference, in 2016 they combined for 4.6.

You can compete with 1B/DH combining for 2.0 wins over replacement.  But not because of them, it would be in spite of that. 

I pretty much agree with that assessment.   I posted various other projections just above your post, and they’re all in the same ballpark.   But I think a lot of posters are assuming they’ll be sub-.700.    That can happen, but it’s by no means a foregone conclusion that it will.   That’s all I’m saying.   

[Enjoy Terror]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, for example, PECOTA projects Davis at .806 OPS and Trumbo at .742;  ZiPS projects them at .777 and 771; Steamer at .808 and .779; Marcel at .805 and 761.   None of those numbers are spectacular, but I wouldn’t put them in the “dragging the team down” category either.    In short, I don’t look exclusively at 2017 in assessing the odds of what 2018 might look like.    I recognize there’s a chance they’ll both suck again, but there’s a decent chance they won’t.    

 

The last time we discussed Pecota, you thought they were laughably ridiculously pessimistic, but the joke was on you: Pecota wasn't nearly pessimistic enough.

Davis Projected .834 Reality .732

Trumbo Projected .779 Reality .686

 

[MikeAD]

32 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Unfortunately I think that may have influenced the decision to sign Davis.  You shouldn't let wild outliers guide your decision making.  Nelson Cruz just had the same offensive season that Hank Aaron did at 36.  If you're using that as a reference point you're going to be bitterly disappointed 99 times out of 100.

Im saying I do not fault DD or Angelos for singing Chris Davis.  It was far too much and over too many years but sometimes that happens.  Given the surrounding circumstances you can understand why it happened.  Not the same for Trumbo.  And in either event, if theres a player that offers more value and more wins, you have to play them.  You can't let bad mistakes hold you back forever.  If nobody will take Trumbo and he cant hit in the future, then we have to operate with a 24 man roster and call it what it is.  Winning teams find a way around bloat they don't put them in the lineup 150+ times a year.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

 

The last time we discussed Pecota, you thought they were laughably ridiculously pessimistic, but the joke was on you: Pecota wasn't nearly pessimistic enough.

Davis Projected .834 Reality .732

Trumbo Projected .779 Reality .686

 

First of all, I never said last years PECOTA projections on Davis and Trumbo were pessimistic.   I said I thought their overall team offensive projections, which had us scoring 712 runs, was “slightly pessimistic,” and I was right.

Second of all, I’m not claiming that PECOTA or any of the other three projection systems I cited are perfect, or that their projections will turn out to be correct.   You asked me what basis I had, other than faith, for thinking there was a “decent chance” that these two players wouldn’t drag the team down in 2018.    I think I’ve answered that question.   

[sportsfan8703]

Word is Trumbo is dealing with a strained quad. He will get the next 3-7 days off to rest and re evaluate 

[mdbdotcom]

41 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Word is Trumbo is dealing with a strained quad. He will get the next 3-7 days off to rest and re evaluate 

Would amputating his leg constitute "doing something" with him? Asking for a friend.