My 25-man roster prediction (as of 3/7/18)

[Just Regular]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree.

Sign Hays to a team friendly deal now.

I'm open to that, but who is your benchmark?  I heard last offseason Lindor turned down $100M from Cleveland, and think in general the player's willingness to sell FA years for their first tens of millions has been ebbing, as they watch the Trouts, Goldschmidts, Archers and Sales of the world get paid pennies on the dollar for their primes.  Never mind how irritated they all are right now with ownership and front offices over the present FA situation.

Cot's has DeJong on there now, and his Arb 1/2/3 years look priced at $4M, $6M, $9M.  The club options on his first two FA years are at 2/27.

If I'm Hays, I think I belong above the DeJong benchmark because DeJong is even more Orioles than the Orioles and no way is that kind of plate discipline going to play long term.  I might get interested around 125% of that, but probably closer to 150%.

A few years ago, this was the time of spring those announcements came like hotcakes, but that flow has slowed considerably.

[backwardsk]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree.

Sign Hays to a team friendly deal now.

10/$80M.  Would you pull the trigger on that?

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

10/$80M.  Would you pull the trigger on that?

Probably not.   The first 3 years cost less than $2 mm.    So, 7/$78 mm for the rest, three of which are still at an arbitration discount.   So basically it’s:

$550 k

$600 k

$650 k

$5.4 mm

$8.1 mm

$10.8 mm

$13.5 mm

$13.5 mm

$13.5 mm

$13.5 mm

That’s a huge commitment to a guy who’s barely played in the majors.

[Luke-OH]

27 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

10/$80M.  Would you pull the trigger on that?

That’s too much, I can almost guarantee it wouldn’t take that much. It’s really too early to extend him anyways. Let him get a MLB season under his belt and then go for it, I like him as much as the next guy, but let him show he can make that transition first. 

[Can_of_corn]

33 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

10/$80M.  Would you pull the trigger on that?

No.

Team friendly, you know with team options and stuff.

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

44 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

10/$80M.  Would you pull the trigger on that?

If Mancini rises another level you could think about extending him after the season.  Probably too late for Schoop now unless the Orioles do something before opening day.  

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s too much, I can almost guarantee it wouldn’t take that much. It’s really too early to extend him anyways. Let him get a MLB season under his belt and then go for it, I like him as much as the next guy, but let him show he can make that transition first. 

I'm going to disagree.  Assuming you think the player is the real deal then I would strike as early as possible.  Every season that passes costs the team.

[theocean]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

From what I have seen of Susac I'm not even excited about him being the backup in Norfolk.

Yeah, I think it's Wynns unless he gets injured.

[theocean]

53 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

10/$80M.  Would you pull the trigger on that?

Let's see him hit major league pitching with success for a month at least, first.

[Rene88]

I think we need to lock up my future child, 10 years, $30 mil should get it done. Quite the bargain.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

I think we need to lock up my future child, 10 years, $30 mil should get it done. Quite the bargain.

Is your child a southpaw?  You might be able to bump that up by $10M.  

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm going to disagree.  Assuming you think the player is the real deal then I would strike as early as possible.  Every season that passes costs the team.

I see your point and the cost would increase, but I think the added certainty would be worth the cost in this case, just my opinion.

[Ruzious]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm going to disagree.  Assuming you think the player is the real deal then I would strike as early as possible.  Every season that passes costs the team.

I like Hays, but he's not a sure thing.  He still might turn out to be a Matos/Bigbie/Richard.  It's too early to talk long-term deal, imo.  

[sportsfan8703]

29 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I like Hays, but he's not a sure thing.  He still might turn out to be a Matos/Bigbie/Richard.  It's too early to talk long-term deal, imo.  

But you don’t mention Markakis, or even Reimold. Just based on numbers, it looks like Hays is similar to Clint Frazier of the NYY. 

Hays is a little banged up.  That’s fine.  Let Rasmus/Gentry hold down RF while Hays heals up and gets everyday ABs in AAA. 

Back to the OP,  We might think the 5th starter race is between Wright/Cortes/Harvey and Ynoa, but Castro makes his first appearance of ST tomorrow. He’s going to get 4-5 starts before OD. I think he’d have to bomb or get injured not to win it. 

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

But you don’t mention Markakis, or even Reimold. Just based on numbers, it looks like Hays is similar to Clint Frazier of the NYY. 

Hays is a little banged up.  That’s fine.  Let Rasmus/Gentry hold down RF while Hays heals up and gets everyday ABs in AAA. 

Back to the OP,  We might think the 5th starter race is between Wright/Cortes/Harvey and Ynoa, but Castro makes his first appearance of ST tomorrow. He’s going to get 4-5 starts before OD. I think he’d have to bomb or get injured not to win it. 

Terrific - he could end up like Reimold...  

I didn't mention Markakis, because I was pointing out the potential downside of giving him a long-term extension.  We all know there's potential upside as well.  Was that really not clear?