Pretty amazing off season: O's reload

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

Just read an article that looked at the first 803 Quality Starts pitched in the 2015 season..........and the guy found that when a team got a QS they won 68.6% of the time.   Pretty good.    So in those "extra" 20 QS you'd expect to win 13-14 of them, whereas if you don't get a QS........let's assume Frobby's number above is accurate so you'd win 6-7..........that confirms the 7 number above.

We probably need Gausman and Bundy to improve too though, to be honest.  Interestingly enough we won Kevin Gausman starts at the same rate that we won Wade Miley starts last year (~47% of games they started the O's won).   If you look at Ubaldo starts.....we actually won in 48% of his games!  Part of that is luck with Miley and Ubaldo presumably (they only had 13 QS all year combined out of 57 yet we won 27 of their starts)  and maybe part of that is Gausman being inconsistent from month to month.  The starter with the best Team win % was Bundy (57%) which probably doesn't surprise anyone.

As I pointed out somewhere else, Gausman was tied for the team lead in games where the starter failed to go five innings, with ten.   That number (kind of the opposite of a quality start) needs to come way down.   That’s the biggest difference between Gausman and Bundy last year — Bundy was able to manage the games when he was off (only 4 starts where he didn’t go five innings), whereas Gausman just melted down at times.   I should add that in 2016, Gausman failed to go five innings only 3 times.

[Il BuonO]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As I pointed out somewhere else, Gausman was tied for the team lead in games where the starter failed to go five innings, with ten.   That number (kind of the opposite of a quality start) needs to come way down.   That’s the biggest difference between Gausman and Bundy last year — Bundy was able to manage the games when he was off (only 4 starts where he didn’t go five innings), whereas Gausman just melted down at times.   I should add that in 2016, Gausman failed to go five innings only 3 times.

Well, that’s encouraging.

[Fan4Life]

5 hours ago, MagicBird said:

Months of offseason doom and  gloom, the FO & DD are a joke.   Tear it all down and trade Manny or the team will be in the cellar for years.  ONE player, Cobb gets signed and suddenly optimism springs up and we even have threads giving PA credit.

 

And I thought women were wishy washy and all over the place.  

Gotta say.. these were my thoughts...  every year we add 1 or 2 guys from FA and dumpster dive for the rest. Personally I don't blame the FO for most of it, I blame ownership. 

[OFFNY]

o

 

ORIOLES FANS' MINDSET

 

2017: ll Bundy, Gausman, then pray for a 3-day hurricane.

2018: ll Bundy, Gausman, then pray for Cobb and Cashner (Orioles fans got their wish.)

 

o

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just going off history.     Last year we won 42 of 62 games where we had a quality start (67.7%) and 33 of 100 when we didn’t (33%).    So, their odds of winning improve about 34% if they get a quality start, and so 20 extra QS translates to about 7 more wins.  

The reason I said 7-10 is that it’s possible the extra innings pitched by the starters would help the bullpen in other games. 

There some very wrong with this logic.   The O's get 20 more Quality Starts than last year and you are saying they will go 7-13 in those games.   That makes no sense at all.

[AnythingO's]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There some very wrong with this logic.   The O's get 20 more Quality Starts than last year and you are saying they will go 7-13 in those games.   That makes no sense at all.

We won about 1/3 of the QS anyway so winning 2/3 is only an increase of 1/3 so 7 wins additional.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

We won about 1/3 of the QS anyway so winning 2/3 is only an increase of 1/3 so 7 wins additional.

 

10 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

We won about 1/3 of the QS anyway so winning 2/3 is only an increase of 1/3 so 7 wins additional.

OK got it.  Instead of going 7-13 they will go 14-6.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There some very wrong with this logic.   The O's get 20 more Quality Starts than last year and you are saying they will go 7-13 in those games.   That makes no sense at all.

I am not saying that at all.   Your logic assumes they went 0-20 in the games where they didn’t have a quality start.

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

 

OK got it.  Instead of going 7-13 they will go 14-6.

Right.    

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

There some very wrong with this logic.   The O's get 20 more Quality Starts than last year and you are saying they will go 7-13 in those games.   That makes no sense at all.

No he's not saying that.

He's saying last year they won 33% or so of their non QSs so they went about 7-13 in any random set of non quality start games..  

This year if 20 of those non QS's games will no be QSs, and they win 67% or so, they'll be 13-7 or 14-6 in those 20 games that got flipped.

Hence the improvement of 6 or 7.   And then he added that it could go up a bit because 20 extra QS's might make the pen better.

[waroriole]

The delusion is pretty amazing if you’re impressed with our offseason

[tntoriole]

11 hours ago, Aglets said:

Amazing might be a little bit of a stretch.  But I think the big swing in public opinion is justified.

Prior to Cobb signing we were told that the O's were 'all in' this year.......and they had brought in one decent SP after ending the season with 3 gaping holes in the rotation.   This made people feel like they were being lied to in one way or another...speaking for myself certainly.   Especially when factoring the significant payroll reduction.

Now that they've brought in two decent SP....... bringing the payroll back to ~ $150M.......... the reality of our roster actually comes closer to matching the narrative that Duquette was selling.  That's a big difference......to me at least.

Yes, Cobb signing was the difference for me in terms of having a shot. 

[gtman55]

Signing Cobb at least puts us in the postseason conversation. But Cashner needs to pitch as well or better than last season and Tillman needs a huge improvement. We're far from a top notch team but we're not the dregs either. It will be interesting for sure. Go O's! First things first, let's beat the Twins tomorrow.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

The delusion is pretty amazing if you’re impressed with our offseason

Why?   It was a good offseason, if the objective was to give us a reasonable shot at a wildcard spot.    In the poll I ran, most people gave it a B — even webbrick2010!

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Why?   It was a good offseason, if the objective was to give us a reasonable shot at a wildcard spot.    In the poll I ran, most people gave it a B — even webbrick2010!

Wasn't he claiming he was hacked?