TT: Orioles Games of Thrones and the Way Forward

[now]

4 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I can only hope and pray you are right. My sense is he is not in anybody's camp and if there's anyone who would organizationally adopt the Houston route it would be him. Perhaps that is why we're not seeing any heads roll because he recognizes where this season is headed and what is involved going forward.

This post (about John A.) is intriguing and I wonder if you can explain/expand. I don't get why heads won't roll, given the task ahead.

[Finisher]

5 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I can only hope and pray you are right. My sense is he is not in anybody's camp and if there's anyone who would organizationally adopt the Houston route it would be him. Perhaps that is why we're not seeing any heads roll because he recognizes where this season is headed and what is involved going forward.

If you're talking about John Angelos here, pretty sure he's tight with Brady.

[El Gordo]

Great read Tony.

[atomic]

To me it seems a clean slate is in order.  If Brady wants to be strength and conditioning coach that is fine.  But he shouldn't have any other role.  He has made a lot of bad decisions and is loyal to guys with no talent like Wright and Reimold.  I think Buck is very over rated and is not the sharpest tool in the shed.  His handling of Kim was ridiculously bad and the playoff blunder would cause most managers to get fired.  His playing first basemen in the outfield and I believe he was responsible for Arrieta being traded,.  Enough.

DD has lost the trust of ownership so he should go as well.  Hire a new GM and let him pick his manager and assistant.  

[sportsfan8703]

15 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

My sources come from across the gamut and not many of direct access to the sons. If there is one pervasive thought is that Lou is more on the law offices side while John is more on the baseball side, and that's the way Peter wanted it.

I've never met Lou and have only had minor contact with John at a few functions. John seemed cordial and we even talked about his wrestling background because my son was a wrestler. Seemed like a good guy, but I've reached out to him a few times since and haven't gotten a response so I'm guessing our relationship will remain at functions. lol

I have no information on how they will run the Orioles. 

Law office/baseball team. Same with thing. Lou must be some type of managerial genious. 

The law office is a cash cow that runs itself. The orioles seem like their play toy when they get bored. 

I don’t think they like the nerdy/awkward guy in a suit and tennis shoes. 

It’s like Oprah. And you get a player, and you get a player, and you get a player....

[Beetlejuice]

The solution to the Os woes in 1 not-so-simple step

1. Sell the team

Not so simple because while the MASN dispute continues to linger no one will buy the team as it is all but impossible to determine the value of the TV contracts.  And Angelos current strategy of dragging things out shows no signs of abatement.  And even if someone were willing to purchase the club with this unknown, Manfred is certain to throw roadblocks up as leverage to resolve this issue.

[btownoriole]

15 hours ago, Flacco Machado said:

Tony,

This may be part of your next article concerning Brady. But, I'm curious if you've heard anything about his philosophies, as far as analytics, the international market, etc.?

Thanks.

Brady sat down for a podcast in the spring that sheds some light on his philosophy.  It’s been a while since I listened to it but he does talk about analytics favorably.  Not much mention of the international market.

https://www.mlb.com/news/orioles-anderson-executive-access-podcast/c-270578884

[utvolzac]

I’m ready for Buck to go.

Not using Britton in Toronto was strike 1. Being responsible for the Davis contract is strikes 2,3,4,5.

I’m not very optimistic on Brady running the show, but I’m not sure what qualified GM would take the job. Hopefully one of the Angelos brothers is better at running an organization than their dad.

[clapdiddy]

6 minutes ago, utvolzac said:

I’m ready for Buck to go.

Not using Britton in Toronto was strike 1. Being responsible for the Davis contract is strikes 2,3,4,5.

I’m not very optimistic on Brady running the show, but I’m not sure what qualified GM would take the job. Hopefully one of the Angelos brothers is better at running an organization than their dad.

I think this is the key.  Do Lou and/or John have the humility to step back and admit that they need a strong leader to guide this team in a different direction?

If we are stuck with Brady and Buck running this franchise, we should be prepared for bad times.

[Tx Oriole]

7 hours ago, now said:

This post (about John A.) is intriguing and I wonder if you can explain/expand. I don't get why heads won't roll, given the task ahead.

We'd all like to see Dan and Buck gone. But then the interim manager won't make much of a change this season. Brady as GM? 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm not trying to come off as a Brady apologist when I say I'm giving him a shot, etc, but if you guys are going to bash him for the bad moves, you gotta give him props for Cashner and Cobb.

Let's not forget that it was the acquisitions of Cashner and Cobb that made some of you guys think that we were going to be a contender or at least halfway decent this year.  

[spiritof66]

19 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

A lot of this you will know if you have been following along here at the Hangout and in other places, but hopefully this can put it out there for all to be able to reference.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/05/09/orioles-game-of-thrones-and-the-way-forward/

Hope you enjoy the piece.

Thanks, Tony. 

I have a number of thoughts and reactions to this piece, much of which I found pretty discouraging.

I'll focus on the most depressing part -- Tony's suggestion that Brady Anderson looks like the front runner to succeed Dan Duquette as the Orioles ' Executive Vice President. 

Hangout posters are a pretty contentious bunch, and there's usually disagreement about pretty much anything. Would anyone would answer "Yes" to any of the following questions? 

1. Do Brady Anderson's background and experience qualify him to serve as the Executive VP of the Orioles?
    
2. Is there any possibility that Brady Anderson would be named to an analogous position with any other MLB team?
    
3. In the past 20 years or so, has anyone whose background and experience are similar to Brady's been appointed to a similar leadership position with an MLB team?
    
4. By making Brady Anderson their Executive V.P., the , would the Orioles not put themselves at a competitive disadvantage relative to most other MLB teams?

[Bonecrusher52]

"Next, after losing Cruz the year before, Buck wanted Chris Davis back badly. Duquette was reportedly less interested in retaining Davis for the money he was requesting, but Buck reportedly went directly to Angelos requesting his first baseman be signed." 

Too much loyalty can be a double edged sword. It can bite the hand that feeds it very easily.

[24fps]

Big thank you for writing this article, Tony.  You've added a lot of substance to the suspicions many of us have had for a long time.

After reading it, I have to say I'm left with considerably less respect for Buck and considerably greater fear of what a Brady Anderson regime could bring.  The next 12 months will be nothing if not interesting for Orioles fans.

[LookitsPuck]

So, thoughts on this article.

First and foremost, thank you, Tony, for writing it. In a way, you're a whistle-blower here. So kudos to you pulling back the covers. And it's a great historical write-up of the last 6ish years.

That said, I think it paints an overly rosy picture of Dan Duquette. You come out of the gates harsh for Arrieta, Strop and Hader trades, but little more. I don't think we can absolve blame of Dan Duquette for the situation with Toronto. After all, the O's just won the ALCS. Duquette *still* had 2015, 2016, 2017 *and* 2018 still on his contract. Why on Earth would Angelos let him walk for essentially pennies? I don't think the Theo Epstein situation is much of a comparison. After all, Theo Epstein had one year left on his contract with the Red Sox. Duquette had 4. Furthermore, even though the 2010 and 2011 Red Sox teams won 89 and 90 games, respectively, they finished 3rd in the AL East both years. Was it ridiculous for Angelos to ask 3 top prospects from the Blue Jays? Yes. But negotiations *have* to start somewhere. And Chris Carpenter, btw, was a 3rd round draft pick by the Cubs in 2008 and long scouted by the Red Sox. So really, it was clear as day that Angelos didn't want to let Duquette walk for nothing. Angelos has a background in negotiations due to being a lawyer and running a ball club for decades now. So if he asks for 3 and ends up getting 1 or 2...that's a win.

Anyways, I think it's important to note that you mentioned Cruz, Markakis *and* Miller were all gone while Duquette was dilly-dallying around with the Blue Jays. We're talking about nearly 3 months worth of the offseason shot because of that. I don't know if we're ever know how much this impacted the O's from mid December through late January. But one thing is for sure: this is very little Angelos's fault. Duquette wanted to jump ship after *2* years into his contract. Blatantly lied about "honouring his contracts". And if Angelos was serious about open to trading him...make it worthwhile. Teams like the Blue Jays don't remain in negotiations that long unless they're seriously interested. They could have just as easily said no right from the beginning if the ask was too high. But here we are.

I don't know. I guess I have a problem with guys like Duquette. We'd be roasting a ballplayer if after 2 years into a 6 year deal...and after winning a division, they were openly talking to other teams and wanting to jump ship. It's ridiculous. This unwritten notion in baseball of letting executives to leave in the middle of a contract is nearly as asinine as the unwritten rules of baseball.

Anyways, if we go historically...who do you think negotiated the Chris Davis contract? After all, if Nelson Cruz was resigned, do you think the O's go hard after Chris Davis? This part of history is a bit murky...even in your writing. I think you're basically making it out to be that Buck wanted him back at all costs and that either Angelos and/or Brady negotiated this ridiculously long and overpriced contract. It basically absolves Duquette of it 100%. And I think that's my main issue with this article. Is it makes things out to be black/white for some of these deals. I think, perhaps worse, is it's painting Duquette out to be powerless hence absolving him of any responsibilities of the 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 clubs. Clubs, I might add, went:

• 2015: 81-81
• 2016: 89-73
• 2017: 75-87
• 2018: 9-27

So I guess the question becomes...if we're absolving Duquette of blame for these 4 years. Who gets credit for 2015? 2016? And if the answer is: it depends. Well, then, I agree. And there-in lies the rub.

I think this is the issue I've had with the mentality of this forum for years, now. We've made Angelos out to be a meddling owner that micro-manages everything. But, if I'm being honest, I'd simply categorize him as a meddling owner that has grown to relinquish power as he's aged over the last decade. I'd say Buck has more sway than a traditional manager, but then again...if we look at other organizations over the years...it's not too asimilar to guys like Joe Torre of the Yankees or, more appropriately, Mike Scioscia of the Angels. Established managers that should have a relationship with the GM and Owner. 

I think the wild card here is, of course, Brady Anderson. I do question how much power everybody is making him out to have. I think he has influence. I do think he's a players "executive". Which should be obvious considering him being a strength/conditioning roving coach, a negotiator, etc. But at not point (until this past offseason) have I ever gotten the impression that he's so ingrained into the front office he's making day to day moves. And truth be told, this isn't a Brady Anderson issue. This is an Angelos issue. I think the biggest problem here....and it's a HUGE if...is if Dan Duquette DIDN'T want Brady Anderson in this quasi-GM in training role. It's not uncommon to have these kinds of scenarios. It is uncommon if they're appointed without buyin from the person that they apparently would work with and *should* report to. And there-in lies the rub for me.

So, all in all, I think Duquette wields tremendous power still. I do, however, feel he's lost influence. And rightfully so. He should have been fired after the 2015 season. That's my main gripe w/ Angelos here. I think it's caused competing heads to bubble up. I think prior to the 2016 season, most of these guys were in their place. But Duquette has went from having something like 75-80% control...to something like 50%.

OK, now to the minutia of the details. In 2016, Kim was buried by Buck, yes. But I think it wasn't because of his hitting. But because of his fielding. And let's be honest, Kim was yet another DH type that clogged up the roster. In isolation, he'd be a solid player to have on the team. But when your team was made up of DH types? Kim, Trumbo, Alvarez, Reimold, Davis, Stubbs, etc. I can understand Buck's problem with having little to no flexibility with his team. And that's been pretty much the issue with Duquette year in and year out. It's been pretty obvious he doesn't care about: speed or defense. 

In regards to Fowler, I still feel that this is a Duquette issue. I think he's socially awkward. He makes asinine statements. And in the end, he's responsible for having these contracts buttoned up and working with agents. I think 100% Close was talking about Duquette there. Let's not forget how Duquette simply never called back pitching coaches or Mark Reynolds or everything in between. This has been a reoccurring theme with Duquette. He simply sucks with: the media and with people.

in the end, I do think Anderson has had more influence going into this season. I think in seasons past it was mostly Duquette. But because he's largely been a poor architect of teams the last few years with minimal flexibility, the botching of deals like Ubaldo and Gallardo, missing the boat on Cruz and having to make up for it w/ Trumbo/Davis and the list goes on.

So it goes back to my 20/20 point. After the 2015 season, I'd have fired Duquette. Simple as that. I wouldn't have fired him before the season because I think it's OK to want another position. But I think there are better ways to approach it. And I think he not only screwed the team in the process, but his terrible people skills also burned bridges in the organization. I've seen how Owners and CEO types act if you're disloyal...or at the very least don't treat things with respect...and it's not atypical how Angelos acted. But after 2015 when the club was mediocre and yet another poor trade by Duquette...it would have been time to cut bait.

I do wonder why Angelos didn't. Is it because he wanted Anderson to get more time under the helm? Tony, your article reads that Brady Anderson was essentially a GM in training...and then received more influence after Duquette faltered. I just question how soon it all happened. I think it happened far later. FWIW, I don't blame Anderson for the 2018 club. This team is still largely Duquette's construction. In much the same way that I give MacPhail most of the credit for the success of the 2012 and beyond teams, I'm going to give the credit/blame for the current construction of the team until the Anderson Regime makes marked changes. And, to me, this club is still 95% Duquette's makeup. Even if he only has 50% of control left.

OK, end rambling. I wrote largely as I was reading.