What could you get for Kevin Gausman?

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Which goes to the point that the O's will wish they never traded him.

I don’t follow you.    If Gausman’s trade value is limited, it’s because he’s been a pretty mediocre pitcher .

[Morgan423]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

But have the O's learned their lesson about trading away pitchers that later come back to bite them.   Arrieta, Davies, Hader  and Bridwell anyone?

This would come down to if we are extending Gausman or not, and are we blowing it up or not?

If we fire sale and don't extend/resign him, then the '19 and '20 years we have him under control are not not going to be that likely to have a competitive team...  gotta trade him in that event.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t follow you.    If Gausman’s trade value is limited, it’s because he’s been a pretty mediocre pitcher .

I think it pretty short sighted to say that.  Everyone agrees that the O's defense so far this year has had poor range, is error prone and didn't make plays they should have.  Most if not all agree that the hitting has been poor.   The pen inconsistent.   Yet fans want to look at Gausman's numbers as say he is mediocre.   Its not a true picture on who he is.  

Gausman had a 3.61 ERA when Hardy was at short and Manny at third in 2016.  Maybe Jones has a little more range then.   

You trade Gausman with all that talent and he will bite you.   There is not much question in my mind about that. 

Mullins, McKenna, Hays all have rangy.  The O's will need to add rangy SS and 3B but they have the money and the trade chips in Manny, Britton, Brach and Jones.  

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

But have the O's learned their lesson about trading away pitchers that later come back to bite them.   Arrieta, Davies, Hader  and Bridwell anyone?

Four very different cases.    Arrieta had plenty of opportunity here, but never performed well.     Hader and Davies excelled in the minors and we traded them before we ever had a chance to see how they’d do in the majors (in Hader’s case, 4.5 years before).     Bridwell never was that impressive for us even in the minors, and honestly, despite his good performance last year, I’m still not convinced he’s going to have a substantial major league career (he’s currently sporting a 7.71 ERA in AAA).

Of the four, Gausman profiles most like Arrieta, but he’s already pitched about double the innings that Arrieta did with us.    If there’s an ace in there, we simply haven’t been able to milk it out of him, so I don’t know that I’d regret it if we traded him and he flourished elsewhere.     That would be on the coaching staff, not the guys who traded him.     

[bpilktree67]

The one intersting place for Gausman to go is the Cubs.  They need another starter they are interested in Manny and some worry Darvish is done mentally in Chicago.  Could that make a huge blockbuster trade.

Cubs get 

Manny, Gausman and Chris Davis

Orioles get 

Baez Montgomery Darvish De la Cruz Lange and Bote.

Darish has 5 years left to Davis 4 and 100 million to Davis 85 million. Davis doesn’t have a place to play but does save them money and number years. Darvish though costing more has better chance to bounce back in my opinion.  

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

This would come down to if we are extending Gausman or not, and are we blowing it up or not?

If we fire sale and don't extend/resign him, then the '19 and '20 years we have him under control are not not going to be that likely to have a competitive team...  gotta trade him in that event.

Depends on how they rebuild.  This team has money and can trade guys that will be free agents.   They have starting pitching.  The have relief pitching.  The have outfielder coming. The need a 3B and SS and some hitting.

Right now for me  Blow it up is trade Manny, Britton, Brach and Jones and see what the O's get in return.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Four very different cases.    Arrieta had plenty of opportunity here, but never performed well.     Hader and Davies excelled in the minors and we traded them before we ever had a chance to see how they’d do in the majors (in Hader’s case, 4.5 years before).     Bridwell never was that impressive for us even in the minors, and honestly, despite his good performance last year, I’m still not convinced he’s going to have a substantial major league career (he’s currently sporting a 7.71 ERA in AAA).

Of the four, Gausman profiles most like Arrieta, but he’s already pitched about double the innings that Arrieta did with us.    If there’s an ace in there, we simply haven’t been able to milk it out of him, so I don’t know that I’d regret it if we traded him and he flourished elsewhere.     That would be on the coaching staff, not the guys who traded him.     

No it is on the guys that trade him.   And I would hate see him being very good for someone else.  I think if you put the right pieces around he can win with the O's.  He is only 27.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think it pretty short sighted to say that.  Everyone agrees that the O's defense so far this year has had poor range, is error prone and didn't make plays they should have.  Most if not all agree that the hitting has been poor.   The pen inconsistent.   Yet fans want to look at Gausman's numbers as say he is mediocre.   Its not a true picture on who he is.  

Gausman had a 3.61 ERA when Hardy was at short and Manny at third in 2016.  Maybe Jones has a little more range then.   

You trade Gausman with all that talent and he will bite you.   There is not much question in my mind about that. 

Mullins, McKenna, Hays all have rangy.  The O's will need to add rangy SS and 3B but they have the money and the trade chips in Manny, Britton, Brach and Jones.  

Let me say, first of all, that I’m not really that down on Gausman.    If you look at his 2016 season, he was about in the same place on June 1 of that season as he is now.   I don’t rule out at all that he could end up having a 2016ish season this year, maybe even a little better if things go his way.

Second, your point about the defense is valid, but it only goes so far.    Gausman’s 4.31 ERA is actually slightly better than his 4.44 FIP.   He’s been homer-prone and that’s a big reason his ERA is higher than we’d hope.    

But third and most importantly, the big question is do we think this team can contend in 2019-20, with or without Gausman?    If the answer is no, then you trade him while his value is highest, which is this year while he has the most service time remaining.    If you do think we can contend in 2019-20, it’s a different calculus.    Personally, it’s hard for me to see how we turn the ship around that quickly, so I’d rather acquire some assets that can produce further down the road.  

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Let me say, first of all, that I’m not really that down on Gausman.    If you look at his 2016 season, he was about in the same place on June 1 of that season as he is now.   I don’t rule out at all that he could end up having a 2016ish season this year, maybe even a little better if things go his way.

Second, your point about the defense is valid, but it only goes so far.    Gausman’s 4.31 ERA is actually slightly better than his 4.44 FIP.   He’s been homer-prone and that’s a big reason his ERA is higher than we’d hope.    

But third and most importantly, the big question is do we think this team can contend in 2019-20, with or without Gausman?    If the answer is no, then you trade him while his value is highest, which is this year while he has the most service time remaining.    If you do think we can contend in 2019-20, it’s a different calculus.    Personally, it’s hard for me to see how we turn the ship around that quickly, so I’d rather acquire some assets that can produce further down the road.  

I certainly don't think the O's even entertain offers for Gausman at the July deadline.  They have all they can handle to get the best deals on Manny, Britton, Brach and Jones.   I think we have to know what the O's get back for those players. Then this winter look again at who else they  may be traded.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I certainly don't think the O's even entertain offers for Gausman at the July deadline.  They have all they can handle to get the best deals on Manny, Britton, Brach and Jones.   I think we have to know what the O's get back for those players. Then this winter look again at who else they  may be traded.

Well, this thread is about what we could get for Kevin Gausman, not whether he’ll be traded.   By the way, I thought of another interesting comp: Bud Norris.   When traded, he had a career 91 ERA+ in 689.2 IP, 103 ERA+ in the current season.   If Sonny Gray was a bit more valuable than Gausman, Norris was a bit less valuable.    In both cases, the pitcher returned 3 pieces, each of which had some value.    

[joelala]

45 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I certainly don't think the O's even entertain offers for Gausman at the July deadline.  They have all they can handle to get the best deals on Manny, Britton, Brach and Jones.   I think we have to know what the O's get back for those players. Then this winter look again at who else they  may be traded.

I would sure hope this isn't the case.  If we start negotiations NOW, it shouldn't be a problem(but we'll wait.)  

If our front office can't "handle" a fire-sale, then we probably shouldn't make any trades at all.

And I'm by no means disagreeing with you, I'm fully prepared for a full paralysis and complete inertia.

 

[Tx Oriole]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Which goes to the point that the O's will wish they never traded him.

This team is a dumper. No one should be untradable.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Well, this thread is about what we could get for Kevin Gausman, not whether he’ll be traded.   By the way, I thought of another interesting comp: Bud Norris.   When traded, he had a career 91 ERA+ in 689.2 IP, 103 ERA+ in the current season.   If Sonny Gray was a bit more valuable than Gausman, Norris was a bit less valuable.    In both cases, the pitcher returned 3 pieces, each of which had some value.    

I don't know Wilcard.