Orioles 2018 Draft Recap

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

What percentage of MLB SS are from the foreign market as well?  Athleticism up the middle is going to be an uphill climb  for the O's until they put some money into Latin America.  

 

18 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That's definitely where a good portion of the SS talent in the majors comes from. It's like 30% of the current starting shortstops.

I count 11 of 27 qualified shortstops as being from foreign markets.  Beyond that,  I recently read that almost 2/3 of all shortstops in organized baseball are from foreign markets.   

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I count 11 of 27 qualified shortstops as being from foreign markets.  Beyond that,  I recently read that almost 2/3 of all shortstops in organized baseball are from foreign markets.   

Thanks, I just guessed off the top of my head, so it's more like 40%+. 

[glenn__davis]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I count 11 of 27 qualified shortstops as being from foreign markets.  Beyond that,  I recently read that almost 2/3 of all shortstops in organized baseball are from foreign markets.   

Wow, that's crazy.  I wonder why that is?

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Wow, that's crazy.  I wonder why that is?

My guess is it has to do with diet and size.    Only about 15% of first basemen were from foreign markets.    I’ll see if I can find the link.   

Edit: it’s in here: https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/visualizing-the-board/.    Lots of other interesting breakdowns of where talent comes from and how it varies by position.   

[Tony-OH]

Excellent article Luke. Great job!

[survivedc]

Would love to have Rodriguez become a legit #2 guy in the rotation down the road, is that being his ceiling just a function of how few true #1’s there are? 

[Luke-OH]

16 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Would love to have Rodriguez become a legit #2 guy in the rotation down the road, is that being his ceiling just a function of how few true #1’s there are? 

Yeah, to put a #1 ceiling on a guy, you want at least two really good pitches (plus or better), plus at least an average third and projection for above average command at least. I have trouble projecting that type of command or secondary on Rodriguez. A plus fastball, two above average and one average secondary with average command would be a great outcome. That's a #2 starter IMO. Obviously, that's not the likely outcome, but a reasonable ceiling if things go really well.

I mean think of the guys you'd consider aces in the majors. Usually they have something just digusting from a stuff prospective (Strasburg), unbelievable command of good stuff (Kluber, although the CB is nasty), and/or a really weird/deceptive delivery that shouldn't work but does (Sale, Scherzer although they have good stuff and command as well). 

 

[ScGO's]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

Wow, that's crazy.  I wonder why that is?

Honest opinion and completely subjective: from the perspective of a high school baseball coach, baseball in America is no longer a "way of life" for the youth.  

What do I mean by this? Its not as much a "theme" of the youth as it used to be.  Such as skateboarding, or football, or punk music can be a "theme" of a kid growing up, baseball WAS the dominant theme for youth boys back in the day.  I'm talking about posters on the wall, baseball cards, playing rundown and 3 flies and tennis ball homerun derby after the games were done, backyard ball, throwing the ball to yourself while you laid in bed at night, competitive games of pepper, a game of chicken catch (throwing as hard as possible, one step in after each throw) waking up early to get the paper first so you could read boxscores , ground balls in the back yard with dad till it was so dark you'd finally end it when one cracked you in the face, sleeping with a radio to catch the west coast games just quietly enough so your parents don't hear.  Not that every kid should live this "theme," but it was a healthy theme for kids, better than phones.

I recently saw a list of the 100 most influential athletes in the world; no baseball players on it.  In America, youth baseball was usurped by travel teams and private instruction about two decades ago, shrinking the baseball demographic.  No more inner city superstars like Doc and Strawberry.  Adam Jones has commented on the lack of black baseball players as well.  Its the same story for rural poverty too (where I coach now).  Its because poor kids, no matter the color, don't get the same opportunities in youth baseball anymore.  Until this changes, expect baseball to lose more relevance.

Among the players I coach, there aren't as many "cage rats" and students of the game.  Most of my players come into my program not knowing the likes of Ty Cobb, Sandy Koufax, or Ted Williams, nor do they have a sense of how the game is played.  Some, no lie, can't name all the MLB teams.  Backups, double cuts, working counts, bunting, pickoffs?  They see Jose Bautista bat flips and benches clearing.  I will forever have ingrained in my mind an image of an opposing player mimicking the all 200%-all-confident-batflip on a 280 foot flyball last season.  I turned to my bench and said, "never do that. I don't care if you hit it 500 *&^%$*^ feet, NEVER do that!"

Why do you think 10 rounds were cut off the draft?  The market is changing.  The islands and Latin countries are in a vacuum.  With the baseball academies set up by MLB, baseball IS the way out.  You can't escape the allure of all the MLB complexes that occupy the Dominican.  I don't have the perspective, but I can imagine, among the youth, it is the talk of the island, and where most of the youth's energy goes.   MLB is investing more and more into the foreign markets.  Don't be surprised if in another decade another 10 rounds is cut from the draft.  Many of America's youth have no concept of throwing programs, pylometric workouts, diet, or studying tape.  And if they do, its because they paid for it.  I'm getting these kids at age 14-15 and this is the first time they've endured a real, organized, goal-driven practice. 

In the Latin complexes, I would assume all these methods of training and diet would be communicated early on?  Watch that movie Sugar and you'll see a good perspective of a Dominican kid trying to get off the island.  Simply put, they want it more.

Less American children are playing baseball.  My son played T-ball this year. There were only two teams.  A small demographic sample size, yes, but when I was a tot, we marched down Main Street in the Little League Parade to start the season with 12 other T ball teams, and we were small town.  I think social media and tech addictions take away time that could be dedicated to playing ball.  If I have to hear about "Fortnight' one more time at practice, I said we''d run hills for the rest of the year.  I truly believe these Latin kids want it more because its survival over entitlement.  Its not just baseball.  How does US Soccer, a country of 350 million lose a qualifying match to Trinidad and Tobago?  They wanted it more. 

Many American kids, in all demographics, are too comfortable, and challenge, ambition, and dedication are being phased out.  Obesity, mental health, and addiction is the result.  It is all going to influence baseball participation.  

Reading back over this, it definitely looks like and old man rant, but hey, as an educator and coach, I'm around kids a lot, so hopefully the perspective helps.  I believe in the youth, I'm just still trying to figure out why they don't believe in themselves.  I also used to work for a scouting and showcasing company where you really saw the affect of money's influence on (un)equal opportunities in baseball.  

Maybe MLB should start setting up youth facilities in the US in the same model as they do in foreign countries.  Invite youth in areas into the program to receive player development and training.  Make baseball an option for the average youth again.

[joelala]

4 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Honest opinion and completely subjective: from the perspective of a high school baseball coach, baseball in America is no longer a "way of life" for the youth.  

What do I mean by this? Its not as much a "theme" of the youth as it used to be.  Such as skateboarding, or football, or punk music can be a "theme" of a kid growing up, baseball WAS the dominant theme for youth boys back in the day.  I'm talking about posters on the wall, baseball cards, playing rundown and 3 flies and tennis ball homerun derby after the games were done, backyard ball, throwing the ball to yourself while you laid in bed at night, competitive games of pepper, a game of chicken catch (throwing as hard as possible, one step in after each throw) waking up early to get the paper first so you could read boxscores , ground balls in the back yard with dad till it was so dark you'd finally end it when one cracked you in the face, sleeping with a radio to catch the west coast games just quietly enough so your parents don't hear.  Not that every kid should live this "theme," but it was a healthy theme for kids, better than phones.

I recently saw a list of the 100 most influential athletes in the world; no baseball players on it.  In America, youth baseball was usurped by travel teams and private instruction about two decades ago, shrinking the baseball demographic.  No more inner city superstars like Doc and Strawberry.  Adam Jones has commented on the lack of black baseball players as well.  Its the same story for rural poverty too (where I coach now).  Its because poor kids, no matter the color, don't get the same opportunities in youth baseball anymore.  Until this changes, expect baseball to lose more relevance.

Among the players I coach, there aren't as many "cage rats" and students of the game.  Most of my players come into my program not knowing the likes of Ty Cobb, Sandy Koufax, or Ted Williams, nor do they have a sense of how the game is played.  Some, no lie, can't name all the MLB teams.  Backups, double cuts, working counts, bunting, pickoffs?  They see Jose Bautista bat flips and benches clearing.  I will forever have ingrained in my mind an image of an opposing player mimicking the all 200%-all-confident-batflip on a 280 foot flyball last season.  I turned to my bench and said, "never do that. I don't care if you hit it 500 *&^%$*^ feet, NEVER do that!"

Why do you think 10 rounds were cut off the draft?  The market is changing.  The islands and Latin countries are in a vacuum.  With the baseball academies set up by MLB, baseball IS the way out.  You can't escape the allure of all the MLB complexes that occupy the Dominican.  I don't have the perspective, but I can imagine, among the youth, it is the talk of the island, and where most of the youth's energy goes.   MLB is investing more and more into the foreign markets.  Don't be surprised if in another decade another 10 rounds is cut from the draft.  Many of America's youth have no concept of throwing programs, pylometric workouts, diet, or studying tape.  And if they do, its because they paid for it.  I'm getting these kids at age 14-15 and this is the first time they've endured a real, organized, goal-driven practice. 

In the Latin complexes, I would assume all these methods of training and diet would be communicated early on?  Watch that movie Sugar and you'll see a good perspective of a Dominican kid trying to get off the island.  Simply put, they want it more.

Less American children are playing baseball.  My son played T-ball this year. There were only two teams.  A small demographic sample size, yes, but when I was a tot, we marched down Main Street in the Little League Parade to start the season with 12 other T ball teams, and we were small town.  I think social media and tech addictions take away time that could be dedicated to playing ball.  If I have to hear about "Fortnight' one more time at practice, I said we''d run hills for the rest of the year.  I truly believe these Latin kids want it more because its survival over entitlement.  Its not just baseball.  How does US Soccer, a country of 350 million lose a qualifying match to Trinidad and Tobago?  They wanted it more. 

Many American kids, in all demographics, are too comfortable, and challenge, ambition, and dedication are being phased out.  Obesity, mental health, and addiction is the result.  It is all going to influence baseball participation.  

Reading back over this, it definitely looks like and old man rant, but hey, as an educator and coach, I'm around kids a lot, so hopefully the perspective helps.  I believe in the youth, I'm just still trying to figure out why they don't believe in themselves.  I also used to work for a scouting and showcasing company where you really saw the affect of money's influence on (un)equal opportunities in baseball.  

Maybe MLB should start setting up youth facilities in the US in the same model as they do in foreign countries.  Invite youth in areas into the program to receive player development and training.  Make baseball an option for the average youth again.

HAHA parts of it sure, but I think there is a good amount of truth in it.  Especially the part about baseball not being accessible to lower income demographics in America.  I remember the RBI organization (I forget what it stood for) had an initiative in place for that for awhile, but I haven't heard much about it recently.

 

[Frobby]

Luke, thanks for the recap.   I do like the fact that (besides pitchers) they went for a lot of up the middle athletes.    I just hope some of them pan out.    As to the players with flaws in their swings, it’ll be interesting to see if we can correct and develop them.    I agree Grenier was kind of a curious stretch, but if we could turn him into Mike Bordick I’d take that out of the 37th pick.    We need to get back to having plus defense and steadiness at SS.

[glenn__davis]

ScGOs - that was a good post, and I agree with many parts of it - but to me it doesn't explain why the MI positions specifically are affected.  Why does America produce so many of 1 position while the foreign markets produce others.   Why are we so good at producing catchers but not so good at producing shortstops, as Frobby's post highlighted?

[billw76]

Great article Luke, thank you. 

Where do you see some of these guys landing on the top prospect lists?

[Camden_yardbird]

Seems like a moneyball approach to drafting (find undervalued guys with flaws we can fix)

While I think there is value to this approach I would also just love to see them draft some guys because they are good players.  They are polished, or they played and performed in big time conferences.  I realize some guys fit this in this draft but it seems to me like Orioles try and over think it sometimes and always overestimate theirbplayer development skills.

[Luke-OH]

32 minutes ago, billw76 said:

Great article Luke, thank you. 

Where do you see some of these guys landing on the top prospect lists?

Haven't thought about it too much yet, but I need to for my next update of my top Orioles prospects.

I have a similar grade on Rodriguez (50) as DL Hall when he was drafted, but Rodriguez is a bit lower risk IMO. So he's going to be in the top 10 for sure. Grenier is going to be behind Knight, likely the top 40 FV guy which will likely put him in the 15-20 range.  Knight (45) will be somewhere near Baumann, around the 10-15 range I'd guess. Rom, Lleras, Neustrom, Turchin, Truitt, and Kilian are all likely in the 40 FV range and near the top 30, but don't hold me to that. Magee, Roberts, Fisher, Iser, Montgomery, Zebron, Hacker, and maybe Fregia are 35s, I think. Some of those guys should be in the back end of the 50, likely Roberts, Magee, and Montgomery. The rest of the guys (not including Cecconi who is a 45 FV who won't sign) are 30s or org players with the important caveat that some of the high school guys are almost unknowns and could jump.

[ScGO's]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

ScGOs - that was a good post, and I agree with many parts of it - but to me it doesn't explain why the MI positions specifically are affected.  Why does America produce so many of 1 position while the foreign markets produce others.   Why are we so good at producing catchers but not so good at producing shortstops, as Frobby's post highlighted?

I guess I was alluding to better athletes through harder work, but it might be   environment.  These kids are out in the heat more and doing more laborious work than the average American kid.  The kids might also grow up playing outside more; more running, climbing, jumping than the average American kid which might lead to more quick twitch muscle.  I'm not saying no American kids play outside by any means, but poverty forces kids to be creative and active with their play...unless they have a phone.  

I'm actually interested in how many of the positions up the middle (SS, C, CF) are manned by foreign born players at the MLB level.  That would be a true tale of where the purest athletes are coming from.