It's days like this that make you realize how flawed MLB is... how bleak the future might be

[Aglets]

7 minutes ago, incubus said:

Machado would certainly expedite a rebuild, especially since he is still going into his prime.

Well we can always sign him for 2019 and I bet that would make a lot of posters happy................ 

But yea probably not.

[TonySoprano]

31 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Don’t pay Davis and Trumbo, and suddenly you have the cash to pay Manny. 

I hear that a lot but I disagree.  Trumbo's gone after 2019 so I believe that's not much of a factor.  Give Jones a gold watch and thank him for the memories.  Bring in some OF depth from the minors making ML minimum and give the $16M+ savings to what Manny was already making and they'd have a serious offer, if they were so inclined.  If Manny were to get the $300M, the Orioles would never pay it for one player even if nothing else was on the books long-term.

[Camden_yardbird]

13 minutes ago, 99ct said:

I think that is part of the original post's gripe, though: if you have more $, you don't have to be as smart. Just because it's possible to compete with a lower payroll doesn't mean its fair. 

This.  I like to use an anology about two kids taking a test.  There are three large questions on the test and five small ones.  One kid answers all but one of the large questions correctly, and gets a C.  The other misses one of the large questions and two of the small questions but gets a B.  No one would think that is fair.  This is the difference between large market teams and small market teams.

If a small market team answers just one question wrong, i.e. signs the wrong long term contract, it can cripple their ability to succeed.  But they have to sign those contracts, take those chances, because you don't win unless you spend.  Whereas large market teams can absorb bad contracts and still compete, both because they have more money for payroll, but also because those large contracts are not not zero sum with money for things like player development or international spending.

The Boston Red Sox paid Pablo Sandoval, Allen Craig and Rusney Castillo $38 million in major league contract money last year and it did not affect their ability to compete despite getting nothing from those players.  There are teams where that amount of money would be 1/3 of their payroll.

The system was changed a few years ago, and many people said that the changes benefitted large market teams.  That argument went by the wayside as teams like the Cubs and Astros were rebuilding and teams like the Yankees and Red Sox were having down years.  But low and behold 5+ years into the new contract we find juggernaughts in Boston, New York, Chicago, Houston and LA.

The average price (payroll) for getting into the playoffs this year may be the highest ever, and that should worry everyone.

[atomic]

Astros just won World Series and might win it again.  Big market teams are trying to stay under the caps.  There are limits to how much teams can spend on international players.  

Really they have leveled the playing field quite a bit over the last few years.  

[Hank Scorpio]

I honestly don't think any team could have signed Machado long term prior to free agency. He always struck me as the type of kid who was very confident in his abilities and knew he was destined for greatness and also free agency.

The big mistake that was made, obviously, was taking whatever money had been earmarked for Manny and spending it on a guy like Davis. Major problem for a team with little room for error financially. 

[Frobby]

I think maybe the O’s need to face who they are and just make a habit of (1) trying to tie players up early for an extra 2-3 years, and/or (2) trading guys away when they are 2 years from free agency and getting prospects in return.     That keeps the team relatively young and avoids paying a lot of money for players in their decline years.    And, doesn’t require a monster payroll and frees up resources for scouting, international signings etc.   

[Dipper9]

54 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I honestly don't think any team could have signed Machado long term prior to free agency. He always struck me as the type of kid who was very confident in his abilities and knew he was destined for greatness and also free agency.

The big mistake that was made, obviously, was taking whatever money had been earmarked for Manny and spending it on a guy like Davis. Major problem for a team with little room for error financially. 

This essentially where I am as well.  Manny was never going to extend before free agency.  Period.

As for trading him early, I think if the Orioles had tanked last year early in the season, it would have made perfect sense to trade him before the trade deadline, like we did this year.  But the fact that the Orioles started out so great and stayed in contention until the last month of the season, the FO knew their window of competing was closing and they chose to make that final run with the best players on their roster.  Its also the reason I didn't mind Britton's trade being nixed.  20/20 vision is easy to look back and say we should have traded them both last season, but that's only because we saw the end result.  Had the Orioles caught fire in September (rather than tanking like we did) there was a real chance this team could have made a strong run in the playoffs.  

So assuming we HAD won it all, and then lost Manny, I think that would have been more than worth it.  Rather than morn the loss of Manny, we should be happy that the years we had him were solid, competitive years for this franchise.  Imagine the doom and gloom if Manny had been playing for the 1998-2011 Orioles rather than the playoff contenders that we had for 5 years!

[esmd]

This line of thinking is a cop out.  No, the Orioles probably can't afford to pay one player $30M/yr.  And even if they offered Manny an extension for 5-10yrs at an AAV of $30M, I don't think he takes it.  I think Manny's had his mind set on moving on for quite awhile.  Manny is flashy, Manny is Hollywood.  I expect to see him in LA, NY, or Chicago next year.  Maybe San Fran.  That's just my opinion.  There are plenty of ways for smaller markets to compete and win in the current system.  The Royals just had a nice run, getting to 2 WS and winning 1.  TB got to a WS.  Oakland has won, though not as much in recent years.  It's not the system, it's the management, AND it's the player.  Takes 2 to tango.  I honestly believe that if Manny wanted to be here, then he still would be.  They'd have worked out something with him like they did with Markakis and Jones.  But IMO, Manny didn't want that.  He's getting now what he wanted, a chance to play in the bright lights of an LA playoff run.  Honestly, I could see the Dodgers making an effort to keep him if all goes well.  Turner isn't getting any younger, and Seager coming off an ACL is no sure thing.  I imagine Manny would be receptive to that, especially if they agree to keep him at SS.

[vab]

2 hours ago, Todd-O said:

Manny being traded for a bag of prospects... walking out of town with the notion that he's is going to ask for the moon in his next contract and nobody - nada... no one - thinks the home town team has an inkling of a shot of resigning him.  They call him a "generational talent" whose best days are ahead of him, yet there's not a sliver of a chance the O's ever could have made him a cornerstone to build around.

 The O's beat writers in the Sun are all but saying there was never a chance he could stay (and to get used to it because this is what Baltimore is and will be).

Then, on the flip side, you have the Red Sox thumping their chest and proclaiming they are ready and willing to cross the highest luxury tax threshold.

This is what MLB has become and the machine will never let it stop because the richest teams and MLB PA will never install true caps that make the playing field level.

Before the season I started a thread about the possibility of the O's leaving Baltimore... and I gotta say, if this truly is the reality (an  inability to ever have a chance at securing a super star while other teams will happily step over the boundaries to reel-in every thing they can), then baseball in Baltimore is on life support.   And to throw some fuel on the fire, the Washington Nationals and their stadium are turning DC's SE waterfront into a thriving neighborhood.  Construction cranes are everywhere.  Businesses that pull-in numbers in the Billions are putting their offices there.  Restaurants are blowing up.  Pretty much the exact opposite of what's happening in Baltimore, which has a shrinking population and a city that is literally torn in half by poverty.

 

And... by the way... the Nats are willing to throw around cash like it's monopoly money.

 

This might be the most depressing day in all of my years of rooting for the O's.  I didn't realize that pain in losing Manny would actually result from the weight of the overwhelming reality smacking me in the face, rather than losing Manny the player.  I am having a really hard time seeing how the O's will survive without being extracted to a region that's begging for a team.  Montreal?  It's entirely possible.

 

It's like a nightmare that I hope is easy to wake up from... sure hope my sense of doom is wrong.

Get a hold of yourself. The Houston Astros are the reigning world champions and I don't think they spent $200-300 million to do it. A well-run organization will always be competitive.  

[gtown]

Kansas City has player in two World Series and won one. Even Tampa has played in a world series.  Money helps, but management is more important.

That said, there is cause for concern financially for MLB in the future. Most of its revenue comes from cable TV deals. From MLB's perspective, the beauty of a cable deal is that subscribers who don't watch baseball still pay for baseball. In the era of cord-cutting, streaming might be the way fans access baseball. If the cable deals shrink, it might be hard to recover the revenue through streaming, where only baseball fans pay.

At the very least, I don't see teams being able to to continue to increase their rights fees--might stay flat for a while.

[GuidoSarducci]

Baltimore doesn't have a chance to sign Manny because it doesn't make sense to have one player tburning $30m/year in payroll or whatever Manny is going to make when its optimistically 3 years before they are competitive again.   Manny is therefore going to be way more valuable to a team that is already competitive or at least very close to it.   This isn't really a problem a hard cap would solve.

[99ct]

28 minutes ago, esmd said:

This line of thinking is a cop out.  No, the Orioles probably can't afford to pay one player $30M/yr.  And even if they offered Manny an extension for 5-10yrs at an AAV of $30M, I don't think he takes it.  I think Manny's had his mind set on moving on for quite awhile.  Manny is flashy, Manny is Hollywood.  I expect to see him in LA, NY, or Chicago next year.  Maybe San Fran.  That's just my opinion.  There are plenty of ways for smaller markets to compete and win in the current system.  The Royals just had a nice run, getting to 2 WS and winning 1.  TB got to a WS.  Oakland has won, though not as much in recent years.  It's not the system, it's the management, AND it's the player.  Takes 2 to tango.  I honestly believe that if Manny wanted to be here, then he still would be.  They'd have worked out something with him like they did with Markakis and Jones.  But IMO, Manny didn't want that.  He's getting now what he wanted, a chance to play in the bright lights of an LA playoff run.  Honestly, I could see the Dodgers making an effort to keep him if all goes well.  Turner isn't getting any younger, and Seager coming off an ACL is no sure thing.  I imagine Manny would be receptive to that, especially if they agree to keep him at SS.

I just really hope he signs with the Dodgers. NYY would probably make me hate him. Cubs, meh...

[esmd]

8 minutes ago, 99ct said:

I just really hope he signs with the Dodgers. NYY would probably make me hate him. Cubs, meh...

Me too.  The last thing I want is him back in the AL East next year twisting the knife.

[theocean]

26 minutes ago, vab said:

Get a hold of yourself. The Houston Astros are the reigning world champions and I don't think they spent $200-300 million to do it. A well-run organization will always be competitive.  

MLB has pretty good parity for the most part. The O's issues over the last twenty years have been related more to poor management than anything. MLB isn't like the Premier League of English Football or something where only the top teams have a shot and something like Leicester City's win is incredibly rare.

[Three Run Homer]

As long as MLB remains serious about policing performance enhancing drugs, the advantage will go to teams that are smart about acquiring and developing young talent, rather than the teams that can afford to buy the best free agents.  Manny is exceptional in that he is going on the free agent market at age 26, but most top free agents are already in their late 20s and about to enter the decline phase of their careers.   Buying a championship is going to be a lot harder going forward than it was in the steroid era when players were artificially able to maintain their productivity into their late 30's.