As we dismantle, the thing that worries me

[LA2]

7 hours ago, theocean said:

The issue with Arrieta wasn't that DD traded him and his 7+ ERA - it was that our lousy coaching staff couldn't develop him when the Cubs could. That's Buck's fault, IMO. Arrieta has even been quoted in interviews saying the O's coaches wouldn't let him be himself.

Yes, this. And kudos to the Cubs coaches and management for reversing the damage. Buck was always ambivalent towards Arrieta and it was so easy to see that it rattled him.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

How does game 1 of the 2014 ALDS go if Detroit has Andrew Miller and we don’t?

How about game 2?

Even if I assume we would have lost the Detroit series without Miller (which is speculative), I have trouble justify losing 6 months of service time for a solid starting pitcher for 2 months of a reliever.   In any event it didn’t get us to a World Series, and I don’t have to speculate about that.    

Rodriguez has accumulated 7.6 rWAR for Boston and has 2.4 seasons remaining to accumulate more.   Miller was worth 1.0 rWAR for us.    I just don’t feel that the O’s had the depth to make tradeoffs like that, even if they did get a strong short-term boost.    

[foxfield]

10 hours ago, brianod said:

The same guy that has lost every trade he's ever made is still in charge.  We should have let him go to Toronto and I believe the reason we didn't is the same reason we haven't won anything since 83.  The ego of our owner(s).  They don't have the money to back up the arrogance. So, we denied a persons request to go elsewhere and now we put him in charge of rebuilding.  Splendid.

First of all, this is certainly fair criticism the Oriole Ownership.  But the crux of your post is throwing shade at DD and I think you are flat wrong.  I have tried to balance criticism of the O's (DD, Buck, Brady) with the back drop of most of the issues could be avoided if ownership wasn't compliant or responsible.

I would be fine if DD were released at year end (though these two trades definitely show his talent).  But the bigger point is to be successful going forward we need one person in charge.  We all know that there have been too many cooks for some time and we can see the results.  

The most important thing moving forward is the announcement of someone to be in charge.  And it is important that the person in charge has full authority to handle the club within whatever budget constraints ownership provides.  It's hard to be successful in the American League East.  It's a stacked division, its a money powerhouse. We have to play in the cold....sorry I couldn't help myself.

So, these are great steps and important steps on the way to being competitive.  And yes DD is the same guy who said we were going for it.  The same guy who signed Gallardo.  All of these things.  But he has also had success here without ever having full authority.  Can him if you want.  I am honestly ok with that....But put some ONE in charge.  

AM left in part because he didn't have full control.  DD will leave if he does not have full control.  Both of these guys are smart and capable.  You're worried about moves that haven't worked but may have been hand tied.  Well, I am too.  But I am simply saying, take off the ties.  Give someone control....and let's see what we can do.  The difference is I think DD can get us there, you don't.  But if someone else is brought in and has the same ties.  I won't matter.

Cheers!

[Frobby]

I think DD has been a mixed bag.    I’m not confident this team can attract anyone better given the current state of affairs.    Therefore it’s OK with me if he stays, but I do hope the team stays clear-eyed and sticks with a rebuilding plan and doesn’t try to shortcut the process.

[foxfield]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Even if I assume we would have lost the Detroit series without Miller (which is speculative), I have trouble justify losing 6 months of service time for a solid starting pitcher for 2 months of a reliever.   In any event it didn’t get us to a World Series, and I don’t have to speculate about that.    

Rodriguez has accumulated 7.6 rWAR for Boston and has 2.4 seasons remaining to accumulate more.   Miller was worth 1.0 rWAR for us.    I just don’t feel that the O’s had the depth to make tradeoffs like that, even if they did get a strong short-term boost.    

Ahhh, the clarity of hind site.  The Erod/Miller deal is one I don't have a problem with.  It was an obvious overpay and that was pretty clear at the time.  It would look completely different if the O's won the WS and that was the best shot.  

I have always been much more bothered by the fact that we let him go to the Yankees for about the same $ we turned around and signed O'day for one year later.  These types of moves have done much more harm.

All of that said, you are correct.  The O's "loss" on that deal will continue to look worse as Erod continues to add value to the Redsox.  

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Even if I assume we would have lost the Detroit series without Miller (which is speculative), I have trouble justify losing 6 months of service time for a solid starting pitcher for 2 months of a reliever.   In any event it didn’t get us to a World Series, and I don’t have to speculate about that.    

Rodriguez has accumulated 7.6 rWAR for Boston and has 2.4 seasons remaining to accumulate more.   Miller was worth 1.0 rWAR for us.    I just don’t feel that the O’s had the depth to make tradeoffs like that, even if they did get a strong short-term boost.    

Well, we won those two games with 8 run and 4 run late innings against bad relief pitchers.

I don’t think E Rod’s 7.6 WAR over 4 seasons (topping out at about 130 up due to consistent injuries) was going to win us a WS either.

At the time, we had 2 of the top starting pitching prospects, and had Tillman under control for 3 more years.

[Whammer]

8 hours ago, Cy Bundy said:

Theo called it the most lopsided deal he has ever been a part of. It was terrible.

Theo? You mean the genius that gave Jason Heyward $184M?  Talk about lopsided . . . . 

[Natty]

We are desperately grasping for straws. Trading all star type players for prospects who may never pan out. Fans praising DD for this is laughable. 

We have to dump our best soon to be free agents, because we are so bad that no one will want to stay on with us. It's embarrassing playing for the worst team in baseball. 

[Chromehill]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Even if I assume we would have lost the Detroit series without Miller (which is speculative), I have trouble justify losing 6 months of service time for a solid starting pitcher for 2 months of a reliever.   In any event it didn’t get us to a World Series, and I don’t have to speculate about that.    

Rodriguez has accumulated 7.6 rWAR for Boston and has 2.4 seasons remaining to accumulate more.   Miller was worth 1.0 rWAR for us.    I just don’t feel that the O’s had the depth to make tradeoffs like that, even if they did get a strong short-term boost.    

When you have not been to the World Series in over 30 years and you are leading the division, you have to go for it and strengthen the team.  OTOH, if you can predict that 11 days later Machado is going to be lost for the season and that Davis is going to be suspended for the postseason, then you do not make the trade. 

Of course the trade would look better right now if the Orioles do not underestimate the market and let Miller go and then turn around and give O'Day the same contract that would have kept Miller. 

I have no problem with the Miller trade, the ones that irk me are the Feldman and Parra trades because the team was not a serious playoff contender those years and neither Feldman or Parra was going to change that. 

[Dipper9]

3 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Andrew Miller, 2014 Playoffs : 7.1 ip, 1 h, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 0 R, 8 K

E Rod, Career Playoffs: 0 ip, 1 h, 1 HBP, 2 R

2014 should have been our year, and then Manny's knee happened and Davis' suspension.  Had we won it all that year the Miller trade may have been looked upon as one of the best in Orioles history.  When a team rents a player, they know they are losing talent for a shot at winning RIGHT NOW.  These are not the types of trades that you grade on hindsight years later.  

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

49 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Ahhh, the clarity of hind site.  The Erod/Miller deal is one I don't have a problem with.  It was an obvious overpay and that was pretty clear at the time.  It would look completely different if the O's won the WS and that was the best shot.  

I have always been much more bothered by the fact that we let him go to the Yankees for about the same $ we turned around and signed O'day for one year later.  These types of moves have done much more harm.

All of that said, you are correct.  The O's "loss" on that deal will continue to look worse as Erod continues to add value to the Redsox.  

I think the depth issue that Frobby pointed out is key. In 2014 I felt like we had a lot of depth starting pitching wise and we were setup for a long time. Rodriguez was our 4th guy in the minors. Yet behind him there wasn't much there. Add to that Harvey & Bundy injuries and a Davies trade.. All our "depth" was gone. It was more quality at the top vs. depth. And therefore a pretty big gamble looking back. If we're in a similar situation in the future, I'd like to either have a little more depth like the Yankees or trade for a lesser yet impactful bullpen piece. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

2 minutes ago, Dipper9 said:

2014 should have been our year, and then Manny's knee happened and Davis' suspension.  Had we won it all that year the Miller trade may have been looked upon as one of the best in Orioles history.  When a team rents a player, they know they are losing talent for a shot at winning RIGHT NOW.  These are not the types of trades that you grade on hindsight years later.  

Also Wieters got hurt in the first month. Crazy to think that we were so successful without those 3 guys. 

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

Also Wieters got hurt in the first month. Crazy to think that we were so successful without those 3 guys. 

Yes it really is amazing.  But its also why you take your shot when you have it.  Saving Erod for later, would have been the equivalent of shutting down Strausburg.  That missed shot looks bigger every years.

 

There have been mistakes made no one doubts that.  Erod for Miller was most definitely NOT one of them.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Chromehill said:

When you have not been to the World Series in over 30 years and you are leading the division, you have to go for it and strengthen the team.  OTOH, if you can predict that 11 days later Machado is going to be lost for the season and that Davis is going to be suspended for the postseason, then you do not make the trade. 

Of course the trade would look better right now if the Orioles do not underestimate the market and let Miller go and then turn around and give O'Day the same contract that would have kept Miller. 

I have no problem with the Miller trade, the ones that irk me are the Feldman and Parra trades because the team was not a serious playoff contender those years and neither Feldman or Parra was going to change that. 

Feldman is very different from Parra.    The O’s were In first WC position when they traded for Feldman, only 1.5 games behind Boston in the division and carrying a .566 winning percentage (a 92-wIn pace).      They’d done that despite huge holes in their rotation as Chen was on the DL and Jake Arrieta (7.23 ERA in 5 starts), Freddy Garcia (5.88 ERA in 10 starts), Kevin Gausman (7.66 ERA in 5 starts) and Zach Britton (4.50 ERA in 4 starts) were struggling, and pitching very short outings that were overextending the bullpen.  Feldman came in and did a very workmanlike job.   Basically, the reasons the team fell out of the race were that (1) the offense slumped dramatically in the second half of the season, and (2) Bud Norris, acquired about a month after Feldman, didn’t produce.     But Feldman did what he was brought here to do IMO.    Parra, on the other hand, was horrible for the O’s, and the team’s competitive position when they acquired him was much more tenuous than when they acquired Feldman.   

[theocean]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Even if I assume we would have lost the Detroit series without Miller (which is speculative), I have trouble justify losing 6 months of service time for a solid starting pitcher for 2 months of a reliever.   In any event it didn’t get us to a World Series, and I don’t have to speculate about that.    

Rodriguez has accumulated 7.6 rWAR for Boston and has 2.4 seasons remaining to accumulate more.   Miller was worth 1.0 rWAR for us.    I just don’t feel that the O’s had the depth to make tradeoffs like that, even if they did get a strong short-term boost.    

Frobby, I always enjoy reading your take on here, but I feel like you often overrate Orioles prospects. Maybe, I underrate them as well.

On July 31, 2014 - the Orioles were 60-47 and in 1st place in the AL East - but only 1.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays. The O's were clearly a team competing to win it all. But, immediately, they also needed to win their division and avoid the Wild Card Game. They accomplished that, and Miller played a huge part by pitching 20 innings with 1.35 ERA.

Additionally, Bud Norris also played a huge part all year, putting up a 15-8 record with a 3.65 ERA and providing 2.1 WAR. If he's not there, Ubaldo is starting in October.

Hindsight is 20/20 - but I think the criticism of DD would be even greater if he had an Orioles team firing on all cylinders in 2014 and didn't add an impact bullpen arm like Andrew Miller. Just look at all the successful teams right now - they all want to add dominant bullpen arms to their teams.

The Cubs gave up Gleyber Torres for two months of Chapman. The Indians gave up Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield for Andrew Miller. The Indians just gave up Francisco Mejia for Brad Hand.

Yes, it'd be nice to have Eduardo Rodriguez and Josh Hader - but the Orioles added to their teams and tried to win it all. I can't fault them at all for that. They paid the price that was required at the time. 

I think it's a bit silly to not try to win when the team is actually winning - in favor of some prospects who might possibly down the road contribute to a winning team.

I don't think the 2018 Orioles would be much better if they had Eduardo Rodriguez or Josh Hader this year. We'd probably be all yelling about how the Front Office needs to trade them to get more prospects for the future. Sometimes, teams just have to try to win in the moment.