An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[Greg Pappas]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

True, but one of the underrated advantages of being 1st is you also draft at the top of all the subsequent rounds.   That’s where having poor depth comes into play.

Right. Hopefully the early reviews are off and we can get a couple (or more) dynamic talents into our system.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Right. Hopefully the early reviews are off and we can get a couple (or more) dynamic talents into our system.

There’s pretty much always enough talent available in a draft for a team to do well if it makes the right picks.   Just to pick a random season, in 2005 there were 37 players selected who have accrued more than 10 rWAR in their careers.   14 were in the first round, but 23 were later.    So, you just need to pick (and sign) the right guys.   The O’s picked none of the 37.

[Ballmer Bruce]

Any thoughts on the catcher from Oregon State?

[Luke-OH]

 

2 hours ago, Ballmer Bruce said:

Any thoughts on the catcher from Oregon State?

 

On 8/25/2018 at 2:11 PM, Luke-OH said:

Rutschman has an excellent feel for the barrel and eye-hand, he gets the barrel into the zone early and hit to all fields with authority. He's a switch hitter and has a bit more bat speed from the RH side, but a mechanically sound stroke from both. I don't know how much power he's going to have, I haven't seen enough of him with a wood bat, but he's going to hit. 

[Bradysburns]

On 10/2/2018 at 1:14 PM, Greg Pappas said:

Updated the OP with Fangraph's updated Top Prospects list.

 

Wow - Witt has fallen to FOURTH best... shortstop?? Again with these lists...

I just pray we don't take a pitcher at this point. Anything but that...

[Luke-OH]

11 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

Wow - Witt has fallen to FOURTH best... shortstop?? Again with these lists...

I just pray we don't take a pitcher at this point. Anything but that...

The creators of this list suggested using it as a tiers ranking by FV rather than an actual ranking. So by that logic, 2-12 are interchangeable and a valid argument could be made for any of them to be #2.

They explain his ranking here https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-mcdongenhagen-project-ep-3/  (18:30 into the podcast).

[Greg Pappas]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

There’s pretty much always enough talent available in a draft for a team to do well if it makes the right picks.   Just to pick a random season, in 2005 there were 37 players selected who have accrued more than 10 rWAR in their careers.   14 were in the first round, but 23 were later.    So, you just need to pick (and sign) the right guys.   The O’s picked none of the 37.

It's true that making the right picks is essential, regardless of how much talent is available.  But I guess my point was that more quality players=better odds.

[Bradysburns]

18 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

The creators of this list suggested using it as a tiers ranking by FV rather than an actual ranking. So by that logic, 2-12 are interchangeable and a valid argument could be made for any of them to be #2.

They explain his ranking here https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-mcdongenhagen-project-ep-3/  (18:30 into the podcast).

Thanks, Luke. Very enlightening. At least you know there's a lot of thought behind their list, and the admitted "margin of error" factor makes it more credible/understandable, while at the same time exposing some of the massive subjectivity involved. Guys randomly assigning "hit tool" scores, etc. So much of it is smart people going with their gut. 

I did listen to a bit of the show where they compared Rutschman to Weiters. They said the two were very comparable, except Adley has a more fiery personality. So more of a Switch-Hitting Caesar... 

[Greg Pappas]

Updated the OP by adding Jonathan Mayo's review of the Top 10 performers at the WWBA Upperclass Championships.

1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage HS (Texas): Witt has been at the top of nearly all Draft rankings, especially among high schoolers, and he showed why in Jupiter. The shortstop went 9-for-25 with a pair of doubles, five RBIs and six steals while recording among the top exit velocities (103.4 mph) and distances (367.7 feet) in the tournament. Even those who doubted walked away impressed, as one national crosschecker said, "I wasn't sold on Witt, and now I'm 100 percent sold."

 

Witt is an outstanding prospect, but is among the oldest in the draft class.  He'll be turning 19 on June 14, 2019-- just eleven days after the start of the draft.  Data regarding a player's age when drafted has me a bit concerned if he winds up being our choice at #1. 
I believe it was poster @baltfan that initially linked to this two-part article from Baseball Prospectus, detailing the age factor in the draft>> 
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15295/doctoring-the-numbers-starting-them-young-part-one/
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15295/doctoring-the-numbers-starting-them-young-part-two/

[ScGO's]

24 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Updated the OP by adding Jonathan Mayo's review of the Top 10 performers at the WWBA Upperclass Championships.

1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage HS (Texas): Witt has been at the top of nearly all Draft rankings, especially among high schoolers, and he showed why in Jupiter. The shortstop went 9-for-25 with a pair of doubles, five RBIs and six steals while recording among the top exit velocities (103.4 mph) and distances (367.7 feet) in the tournament. Even those who doubted walked away impressed, as one national crosschecker said, "I wasn't sold on Witt, and now I'm 100 percent sold."

That is some Heller exit velocities for a HS kid.  I'm sold.

 

Some of the other players are interesting and should be watched.

Brennan Malone - I watched some film.  I haven't seen him throw anything other than a fastball.  He's at 97, looks strong, and that body will fill out.  Needs to clean up delivery, but it looks like that could be simple enough as he isn't out of control.  Probably would benefit from just going from the stretch.  Probably a power reliever unless he gets the feel for some offspeed and commands the fastball.  I don't know how deep the draft is, but he wouldn't be a 1st round pick for me. Not enough polish, but he should be a top round pick.  

Riley Greene- I really like his projection.  I'd tweak a few things in his lower half and back side, but he puts his head down on the ball and finds the barrel.  Pretty bat path.  I like his size too.  Will probably be a 1st round pick.

Rece Hinds - The athleticism and projection are real.  His body language is interesting sometimes; I wonder about his character.  Will probably be a 1st round pick.

 

 

 

 

[ScGO's]

Found literally one swing on Matthew Lugo.  Interesting build, but if he can stay at SS, might be someone to track.

[jgjbanker]

Other thing to keep in mind is we should have a least one competitive balance pick, so in addition to having the first pick in every draft, we will have another one at the end of one of the first two rounds.   Should have at least 3 picks within the first 65-70 picks I would guess. We need to hit in 1:1 and at least one of the other 2. Hopefully there is enough depth that we can nail 2 of our first 3 picks

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, jgjbanker said:

Other thing to keep in mind is we should have a least one competitive balance pick, so in addition to having the first pick in every draft, we will have another one at the end of one of the first two rounds.   Should have at least 3 picks within the first 65-70 picks I would guess. We need to hit in 1:1 and at least one of the other 2. Hopefully there is enough depth that we can nail 2 of our first 3 picks

They are going to package it with Trumbo.

[section18]

Based on their resumes who do you want making that pick? Cherington. Colletti or Bloom ?

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, section18 said:

Based on their resumes who do you want making that pick? Cherington. Colletti or Bloom ?

Mike Elias.