An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Those are terrible odds when the O's have had zero TOR years from any HS pitcher they drafted. 

Yes, I’d agree that’s a terrible record with the high-drafted HS pitchers.   Let’s hope Hall and Rodriguez can break that spell, and Harvey if he’s ever able to stay healthy.     And for the record, I’m not giving up on Bundy despite his struggles.   

[baltfan]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned about Witt, Jr. is that he is currently 18yrs and 2mos.  

This needs to be weighed in evaluating him.  He is effectively playing against some guys that are as much as a year younger than him.  That can make a big difference at that age.  

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15295/doctoring-the-numbers-starting-them-young-part-one/

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, baltfan said:

One thing I haven't seen mentioned about Witt, Jr. is that he is currently 18yrs and 2mos.  

This needs to be weighed in evaluating him.  He is effectively playing against some guys that are as much as a year younger than him.  That can make a big difference at that age.  

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15295/doctoring-the-numbers-starting-them-young-part-one/

Good point and nice article, too.

[Greg Pappas]

26 minutes ago, baltfan said:

One thing I haven't seen mentioned about Witt, Jr. is that he is currently 18yrs and 2mos.  

This needs to be weighed in evaluating him.  He is effectively playing against some guys that are as much as a year younger than him.  That can make a big difference at that age.  

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15295/doctoring-the-numbers-starting-them-young-part-one/

I agree whole-heartedly with the article's premise. It's the reason I always note age when doing the 2019+ Positional Review Series threads. Age is (or should be) an essential factor for any player's scouting report.  It's common sense. 

Player A is 17y-112d, and Player B is 18y-235d. Both are center-fielders and play in the same circuit of all-star games, as well as similarly-rated leagues in their respective states. Both are considered outstanding prospects... true five tool talents. Their size, speed, and other attributes are too close to discern any difference. I take the 17-year old, virtually every time. 

Thanks for bringing this up.

[Frobby]

Manny was only 17 when drafted.   But then, so was Billy Rowell.

[Luke-OH]

16 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I agree whole-heartedly with the article's premise. It's the reason I always note age when doing the 2019+ Positional Review Series threads. Age is (or should be) an essential factor for any player's scouting report.  It's common sense. 

Player A is 17y-112d, and Player B is 18y-235d. Both are center-fielders and play in the same circuit of all-star games, as well as similarly-rated leagues in their respective states. Both are considered outstanding prospects... true five tool talents. Their size, speed, and other attributes are too close to discern any difference. I take the 17-year old, virtually every time. 

Thanks for bringing this up.

Not a critique, because I agree with you of course, but this is a gimme question.

What if Player B is the same, but Player A has a great frame but little present power, his routes in CF are an adventure and his arm is strong but lacks accuracy. Then who do you select?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Not a critique, because I agree with you of course, but this is a gimme question.

What if Player B is the same, but Player A has a great frame but little present power, his routes in CF are an adventure and his arm is strong but lacks accuracy. Then who do you select?

The 19 year old pitcher with great GB rates.

[Greg Pappas]

Here are just a few Draft Day Ages of a couple of the top HS prospects:

• Witt, Jr. 18 years-11 months
• Riley Greene 18 years-7 months
• Rece Hinds 18 years-8 months
   

The following is what I found looking at 1st-round HS'ers this past draft:
 

Kelenic	18.90
Weathers	18.48
Stewart	18.60
Rodriguez	18.56
Groshans	18.58
Scott	18.67
Winn	18.54
Liberatore	18.59
Adams	18.64
Gorman	18.08

[Greg Pappas]

23 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Not a critique, because I agree with you of course, but this is a gimme question.

What if Player B is the same, but Player A has a great frame but little present power, his routes in CF are an adventure and his arm is strong but lacks accuracy. Then who do you select?

Very true... I must admit I typed that out fast, as I'm nearing the end of the stock market day.   

Probably B in that case. It's a good point to bring up though, as age difference is a big part of how a scout projects the future of a player. 

[Greg Pappas]

Just updated the OP with this...

Posted by 2080Baseball.com [Their scouting "spotlight" reports of various 2019 Draft prospects]

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Very true... I must admit I typed that out fast, as I'm nearing the end of the stock market day.   

Probably B in that case.

I agree, player B is Jarred Kelenic and I can't really find a direct comp for Player A, but Brennen Davis is similar albeit with more hit tool questions.  

[Greg Pappas]

Somewhat interesting: Kelenic, taken first, was the oldest 1st round HS'er, while Gorman, taken last, was the youngest.

[Jammer7]

On 9/4/2018 at 2:19 PM, Can_of_corn said:

That was always my line with Wieters, catch him into the ground and let someone else pay for the decline.

Would have worked too if not for that pesky UCL.

Problem is that Matt’s bat was never able to reach what he was capable of, not even close. DH or 1B some to keep legs more fresh. If you have an offensively gifted catcher, why catch them 135 games in a season? Yadi and Pudge could, but no one else. I think they had some help chemically, but whatever.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Problem is that Matt’s bat was never able to reach what he was capable of, not even close. DH or 1B some to keep legs more fresh. If you have an offensively gifted catcher, why catch them 135 games in a season? Yadi and Pudge could, but no one else. I think they had some help chemically, but whatever.

Because I want to squeeze as much value out of those six years as I can.

[Jammer7]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Because I want to squeeze as much value out of those six years as I can.

So, you’re saying that a middling defensive catcher has more value playing catcher at the risk of his legs getting beat down and his hitting suffers...like Wieters...than to get better offensive production by keeping his legs fresher? Not sure I can follow that logic. Help me out there.