Who will get a better contract this winter, Markakis or Jones?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

26 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Why do you hate America?

Ha, I like Markakis.  Just stating facts.

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Ha, I like Markakis.  Just stating facts.

I know.  I like him too.  I figured his dWAR wouldn't be great, he's gotten older, lost speed and range.  

[VaBird1]

7 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Interesting because his dWAR was -0.7. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/markani01.shtml

Maybe it was to make up for 2008.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Interesting because his dWAR was -0.7. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/markani01.shtml

dWAR is not a good stat to use because it carries a positional adjustment.    -0.7 is actually slightly above average in RF.   Nick was slightly above average in UZR (+1.1) and DRS (+2).

It was a weak year in RF in the NL. In the Fielding Bible voting, 7 of the top 10 vote-getters were in the AL, including the top 5.    The only two NLers ahead of Nick in the voting were Jason Heyward and Yasiel Puig.    Heyward was ahead of Nick in both UZR and DRS, but not by a ton; Puig was ahead of Nick in DRS but behind him in UZR.   Overall, I’d say it was probably a stretch to give Nick the GG, but not a ridiculous choice.    Among other things, he played 30 more games out there than anybody else (40 more than Heyward or Puig), and he played very solidly.     

Anyway, I’m very glad Nick won the award.   He had a nice year.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

dWAR is not a good stat to use because it carries a positional adjustment.    -0.7 is actually slightly above average in RF.   Nick was slightly above average in UZR (+1.1) and DRS (+2).

It was a weak year in RF in the NL. In the Fielding Bible voting, 7 of the top 10 vote-getters were in the AL, including the top 5.    The only two NLers ahead of Nick in the voting were Jason Heyward and Yasiel Puig.    Heyward was ahead of Nick in both UZR and DRS, but not by a ton; Puig was ahead of Nick in DRS but behind him in UZR.   Overall, I’d say it was probably a stretch to give Nick the GG, but not a ridiculous choice.    Among other things, he played 30 more games out there than anybody else (40 more than Heyward or Puig), and he played very solidly.     

Anyway, I’m very glad Nick won the award.   He had a nice year.   

Nick's bat was better than Heyward's so Nick won.

Typical Gold Glove voting.

I was hoping they would get over this bias by now but obviously it hasn't happened yet.

[Frobby]

52 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nick's bat was better than Heyward's so Nick won.

Typical Gold Glove voting.

I was hoping they would get over this bias by now but obviously it hasn't happened yet.

While I agree with you to a point, Heyward had a down year defensively, for him.  He’d won 4 GG’s in a row, including 2016 and 2017 when he had a worse OPS than this year.   So I don’t think you can say it was all about the hitting.  

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nick's bat was better than Heyward's so Nick won.

Typical Gold Glove voting.

I was hoping they would get over this bias by now but obviously it hasn't happened yet.

I don’t really care about the GG voting but why in the world they would announce this on a Sunday makes no sense to me. It gets completely lost. 

[Frobby]

Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel says 2/$22 mm for Nick, 1/$8 mm for Adam.    Their crowdsourcing median says 2/$20 mm for both players.    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-top-50-free-agents/

McDaniel has Manny at 9/$279 mm, and Britton at 3/$30 mm.  Crowdsourcing has Manny at 8/$256 mm, and 3/$36 mm for Britton.    Brach didn’t make fangraphs’ top 50 and so his projected contract wasn’t listed.  

[Frobby]

So, it looks like Markakis, $6 mm vs. $3 mm, pending confirmation of Jones’ deal.    Both got a fraction of what I had expected initially.    

[esmd]

On 8/21/2018 at 10:36 AM, esmd said:

I'll go with 2/18 for Adam, with maybe a 3rd year option at similar $$ with a buyout around $1M give or take.  Nick, I'll say a 1 year deal for around $9-10M.  Maybe he gets an option year for $10M with a buyout similar to the one Jones gets.  Slightly more $$ in 2019 for Nick, but Adam gets the multi-year deal.

Ouch. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

So, it looks like Markakis, $6 mm vs. $3 mm, pending confirmation of Jones’ deal.    Both got a fraction of what I had expected initially.    

I'm declaring victory on this thread  I think I had the closest prediction.  Not quite an ST invite, but not far from it, either.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

29 minutes ago, esmd said:

Ouch. 

Ouch for your prediction, but I think Jones will still be able to bread on the table. 

It looks like teams are getting smarter at giving out contracts to older vets, but then Harper gets signed for 13 years with no opt outs and a no trade clause.  

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

So, it looks like Markakis, $6 mm vs. $3 mm, pending confirmation of Jones’ deal.    Both got a fraction of what I had expected initially.    

Jones can make another $2 mm in incentives, $250 k for 250 at bats and each 50 PA thereafter up to 600.    And, $250 k if he gets traded.   Still a bit disappointing for him but at least he’s got a chance to earn more than Rasmus and Tillman did last year for us.

[Chavez Ravine]

This section of the market has really cratered. At least some of the teams playing in it are going to stumble into some nice value.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Chavez Ravine said:

This section of the market has really cratered. At least some of the teams playing in it are going to stumble into some nice value.

Not surprising.  As much as we picked apart Jones over the past couple years for his declining skills, we shouldn't be shocked that he got the deal that he got.