Luke’s 2018 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

[POR]

15 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

This would be my choice....

I have Santana on my deep dynasty team so I somewhat familiar with him.

He got better as the year went on and he has talent, but struggles with patience ( 20 BBs in a full year).  Like a lot of rule V candidates, he would be much better off playing everyday in AA than sitting on the bench in the majors.   However, the Dodgers are loaded and it is unusual to see a player that is Santana's age and talent be available in the rule V.

[weams]

 

[Roll Tide]

38 minutes ago, weams said:

 

I'd be willing to bet he's selected....Don't know who made the call but it may turn out to be a bad one.

[wildcard]

7 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I'd be willing to bet he's selected....Don't know who made the call but it may turn out to be a bad one.

27 years old in January, 5.04 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP at AAA.   I think its unlikely he gets selected.

[Rene88]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

27 years old in January, 5.04 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP at AAA.   I think its unlikely he gets selected.

Facts don’t matter just Roll Tide.

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Rene88 said:

Facts don’t matter just Roll Tide.

Don't be a jerk!

[Luke-OH]

Let’s keep this civil everyone.

Regarding Gonzalez, he’s far from a lock to get picked, he is older and lacks a wipeout secondary.

But he might get selected and here’s why...

First the 5.04 ERA in AAA is a mirage, his FIP was 3.25 and was 3.18 ERA for his entire season. Plus, no team is evaluating based on ERA over a 25 inning sample.

Second and more importantly, he’s a lefty who touches 96 with his fastball. Looking at my list of eligible lefties, there are no lefties with AA or AAA experience with that velocity. So if you want a LHP with velo, he’s your guy.

So, it’s more nuanced, if he gets selected, it’s not a huge loss, but it also wasn’t a no-brainer to leave him unprotected.

 

 

 

[Jammer7]

50 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Let’s keep this civil everyone.

Regarding Gonzalez, he’s far from a lock to get picked, he is older and lacks a wipeout secondary.

But he might get selected and here’s why...

First the 5.04 ERA in AAA is a mirage, his FIP was 3.25 and was 3.18 ERA for his entire season. Plus, no team is evaluating based on ERA over a 25 inning sample.

Second and more importantly, he’s a lefty who touches 96 with his fastball. Looking at my list of eligible lefties, there are no lefties with AA or AAA experience with that velocity. So if you want a LHP with velo, he’s your guy.

So, it’s more nuanced, if he gets selected, it’s not a huge loss, but it also wasn’t a no-brainer to leave him unprotected.

 

 

 

Yeah, it wouldn’t surprise me either way. I would be a little surprised if he sticks all year, but not shocked. He’s left handed with good velo, some deception. There is a reason they did not protect him over Donnie Hart, and I have no idea why Hart is still here. But Elias and Graham made an educated choice here, I have no doubt. 

[sportsfan8703]

8 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Yeah, it wouldn’t surprise me either way. I would be a little surprised if he sticks all year, but not shocked. He’s left handed with good velo, some deception. There is a reason they did not protect him over Donnie Hart, and I have no idea why Hart is still here. But Elias and Graham made an educated choice here, I have no doubt. 

I like Hart and really appreciate what he did in 2016. I’ll even make the excuse that we overrused and overexposed him in 2017 and he lost his mojo.  Even with all that, I don’t see how a team on the verge of losing 100 games, keeps a LOOGY around that is out of options. There weee lots of players traded during the roster crunch that had higher ceilings that Hart. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like Hart and really appreciate what he did in 2016. I’ll even make the excuse that we overrused and overexposed him in 2017 and he lost his mojo.  Even with all that, I don’t see how a team on the verge of losing 100 games, keeps a LOOGY around that is out of options. There weee lots of players traded during the roster crunch that had higher ceilings that Hart. 

Hart, Wright and Susac has never been outrighted.   Elias may want to see one or more of these players during ST and then decide whether to try to get them through waiver right before opening day to stash them at AAA.  Since none of the three are arbitration eligible the can be waived and released at no cost to the O's if they don't show well in ST.

Of course there is a long way to go to see if they keep their 40 man roster spots this off season.

I think Gonzalez just missed the cut based on his age and that he did not do very well after being promoted to AAA.  His WHIP was too high at AAA to be assured that he deserved a roster spot.  Also the O's have a lot of lefties pitchers at the moment.  Bleier, Fry,  Hart, Means, Rogers, Gilmartin, Akin.

[sportsfan8703]

On 11/23/2018 at 4:43 PM, Luke-OH said:

Josh VanMeter is my favorite bat I’ve looked at so far and I’m like 50-60% through my list of names. More on him to come...

My list went from 72 names to 28 after teams protected players and I’ve dug deeper, with it back up to 65. The thing I’ve noticed is teams are taking less chances leaving arms unprotected this year, no polished AAA relievers with stuff that I can find right now. 

Keep up the good work. This is pretty much our only hot stove talk right now, but then again it was last year. Haha. 

I’m hoping we take fliers from A ball. Why not?

[Tony-OH]

On 11/25/2018 at 8:34 AM, weams said:

 

I'm not a huge Gonzalez guy because his secondaries are very inconsistent, but i would have put him on the 40-man and taken Donnie Hart off. 

[AZRon]

57 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not a huge Gonzalez guy because his secondaries are very inconsistent, but i would have put him on the 40-man and taken Donnie Hart off. 

I agree, but I'm guessing that their belief is that this strategy gives them, for now, a better chance of retaining both players in the organization. That is, the chances are greater that Hart would be claimed off waivers than those of Gonzalez being taken in the Rule 5 draft.

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, AZRon said:

I agree, but I'm guessing that their belief is that this strategy gives them, for now, a better chance of retaining both players in the organization. That is, the chances are greater that Hart would be claimed off waivers than those of Gonzalez being taken in the Rule 5 draft.

Perhaps, but I'd love to see if a team would actually take Hart off waivers. I mean, left-handers who throw 87 mph and can't get left-handers out must be hard to find!

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Perhaps, but I'd love to see if a team would actually take Hart off waivers. I mean, left-handers who throw 87 mph and can't get left-handers out must be hard to find!

You have to admit you don't see many on major league rosters.